Spending cuts loom if Drakeford budget falls in Senedd

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c397krk2g77o

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Former first minister Mark Drakeford is the Welsh government's current finance secretary

Public services have been threatened with big cuts if Finance Secretary Mark Drakeford cannot convince political opponents to support the budget he starts publishing on Tuesday.

Worth more than £27bn, the Welsh government's spending plans for next year pays for services from hospitals to bin collections.

The Senedd has to vote in favour to approve it, but the Labour government does not have enough members to win those votes without other parties.

Welsh Conservatives leader Darren Millar said a budget agreement "may be possible" if the government considered policies such as scrapping Welsh stamp duty for primary residential properties.

"We want to see changes to the Welsh government's budget and that's why we're saying if they are prepared to have that conversation about scrapping stamp duty then we are prepared to sit down with them and explore whether a deal might be possible," he told BBC Radio Wales Breakfast.

A looming by-election could make the political arithmetic even more difficult.

This budget will be inherited by the winner of next year's Senedd election.

Drakeford has said he does not want to tie the hands of the next Welsh government.

He has promised a budget designed to minimise political wrangling, but negotiations with other parties are inevitable.

First Minister Eluned Morgan says she expects the budget that finally gets through the Senedd in the spring to be very different from Tuesday's first outline draft.

Minority government

With exactly half the Senedd's seats, Labour cannot win votes alone.

Labour has never won an outright majority in a Senedd election, so has almost always relied on other parties' help to pass budgets.

Last year, the two biggest opposition parties – the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru – voted against the budget.

Drakeford struck a deal with Liberal Democrat MS Jane Dodds to get the budget through.

But her single vote will not be enough if Labour loses the Caerphilly by-election.

'Mass redundancies'

On Tuesday, Drakeford will allot money for government departments for 2026-27.

A detailed breakdown, with spreadsheets showing funding for public services, will follow on 3 November.

Weeks of lobbying and scrutiny will follow - and in the meantime Chancellor Rachel Reeves will publish her budget. Most of the Welsh government's funding comes from her.

A vote on the final budget is due on 27 January.

If the budget does not pass by the start of the financial year in April the government is only allowed to spend 75% of last year's budget.

That would require big cuts, with Morgan warning of "mass redundancies".

The spending limit rises to 95% if a budget still has not been passed by the end of July.

A government can table a budget vote during the financial year, so it could try again after 1 April.

Labour's options

The Welsh Conservatives said Drakeford should publish a budget that "delivers for the taxpayer".

The party last week said it would scrap land transaction tax - the Welsh version of stamp duty.

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has not closed the door on talking to the government, but says "it's Labour's budget".

"I don't think anybody wants to face a situation where there isn't a budget in place for next year," he said.

Dodds's spokesperson said she recognised what was at stake for public services.

"That means Jane is ready to listen and work with other parties, something that neither the Conservatives nor Plaid Cymru were willing to do in the last budget," they said.

Reform, which has one MS after the defection of Laura Ann Jones, said it would not support a budget that continues to fund the Nation of Sanctuary policy.

Full list of candidates

The full list of candidates for the Caerphilly by-election are:

Liberal Democrats: Steve Aicheler

Gwlad: Anthony Cook

Greens: Gareth Hughes

Conservatives: Gareth Potter

Reform: Llyr Powell

UKIP: Roger Quilliam

Labour: Richard Tunnicliffe

Plaid Cymru: Lindsay Whittle

You can find out more about the candidates here.

BBC Wales is holding a live debate for the candidates of the Caerphilly by-election on 15 October. Click below to apply to be in the audience.