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| Why do summits always go to the 11th hour? | Why do summits always go to the 11th hour? |
| (about 4 hours later) | |
| Delegates at the Copenhagen climate conference have been scrambling to seal a deal. But why do political summits such as this always go to the wire? | Delegates at the Copenhagen climate conference have been scrambling to seal a deal. But why do political summits such as this always go to the wire? |
| Peacemakers behind the Northern Ireland Good Friday agreement were in talks for two years trying to end 30 years of conflict and centuries of animosity. But it was only on the final day as the deadline passed and hours started slipping away, that a deal was finally brokered. | Peacemakers behind the Northern Ireland Good Friday agreement were in talks for two years trying to end 30 years of conflict and centuries of animosity. But it was only on the final day as the deadline passed and hours started slipping away, that a deal was finally brokered. |
| There was no early plane home for delegates involved in agreeing the Kyoto protocol in 1997 or the Bali Road Map in 2007, which itself was a preparation document for the current Copenhagen conference. | There was no early plane home for delegates involved in agreeing the Kyoto protocol in 1997 or the Bali Road Map in 2007, which itself was a preparation document for the current Copenhagen conference. |
| You get to a point very late in the day where you ask 'are we close enough to a deal?' Bob Ward, London School of Economics href="/2/hi/science/nature/8422133.stm">UN welcomes Copenhagen deal | |
| And you don't have to be a seasoned Brussels watcher to know that European summits seldom end without a denouement that keeps leaders and diplomats hammering out the finer points of a deal while the rest of the continent is tucked up in bed. | And you don't have to be a seasoned Brussels watcher to know that European summits seldom end without a denouement that keeps leaders and diplomats hammering out the finer points of a deal while the rest of the continent is tucked up in bed. |
| Just as many people put off facing their Christmas shopping demons until 24 December, so world leaders and peacemakers seem to dither until deadline day. | Just as many people put off facing their Christmas shopping demons until 24 December, so world leaders and peacemakers seem to dither until deadline day. |
| The 11th hour may be a favourite phrase among headline writers, but with good reason when you consider how many disputes run into the dying minutes. | The 11th hour may be a favourite phrase among headline writers, but with good reason when you consider how many disputes run into the dying minutes. |
| Is it human nature at play that takes it to the wire or some kind of inherent pattern to such talks? | Is it human nature at play that takes it to the wire or some kind of inherent pattern to such talks? |
| Or is it far more obvious and a case of waiting until the big guns are in town to make the big announcement? While the Copenhagen summit has been grinding on for almost two weeks, US president Barack Obama didn't arrive in the Scandinavian capital to the final day. | Or is it far more obvious and a case of waiting until the big guns are in town to make the big announcement? While the Copenhagen summit has been grinding on for almost two weeks, US president Barack Obama didn't arrive in the Scandinavian capital to the final day. |
| No deadline... after seven years of negotiating world trade talks broke up last year | No deadline... after seven years of negotiating world trade talks broke up last year |
| Perhaps it is down to logistics. If you have 14 days to reach an agreement - and a conference hall, hotels and flights booked to accommodate that - why get the job done early? | Perhaps it is down to logistics. If you have 14 days to reach an agreement - and a conference hall, hotels and flights booked to accommodate that - why get the job done early? |
| Certainly, politicians in Copenhagen seem to be trying to manage our expectations. UK Environment Secretary Ed Miliband warned a deal was on "a knife-edge" while German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the news was "not good". | Certainly, politicians in Copenhagen seem to be trying to manage our expectations. UK Environment Secretary Ed Miliband warned a deal was on "a knife-edge" while German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the news was "not good". |
| Psychologists warn that the language of negotiation is critical - make it too battle-hungry and both sides will go away with nothing. But these are politicians talking to their people, not those around the table. | Psychologists warn that the language of negotiation is critical - make it too battle-hungry and both sides will go away with nothing. But these are politicians talking to their people, not those around the table. |
| The ebb and flow of this latest summit seems familiar - an encouraging start, followed by a few judders, progressing to deadlock. Then, as the deadline nears, talks start to flicker back to life, and just as winter turns to spring, a deal is born - perhaps. | The ebb and flow of this latest summit seems familiar - an encouraging start, followed by a few judders, progressing to deadlock. Then, as the deadline nears, talks start to flicker back to life, and just as winter turns to spring, a deal is born - perhaps. |
| Speaking on Thursday, Bob Ward, who is in Copenhagen heading up a delegation from the London School of Economics, believed spring was just around the corner. | Speaking on Thursday, Bob Ward, who is in Copenhagen heading up a delegation from the London School of Economics, believed spring was just around the corner. |
| "Previous negotiations have had the same path where right up until the last day there was a sense that things had not come together quickly enough," he said. | "Previous negotiations have had the same path where right up until the last day there was a sense that things had not come together quickly enough," he said. |
| Now or never? | Now or never? |
| "Usually it's the case that when minds are focused, people get down to the solid parts of negotiation and reach an agreement. You get to a point very late in the day where you ask 'are we close enough to a deal?'" | "Usually it's the case that when minds are focused, people get down to the solid parts of negotiation and reach an agreement. You get to a point very late in the day where you ask 'are we close enough to a deal?'" |
| He was unswerving in his assertion that people are in Copenhagen to do a deal and so long as the political will is there, it will happen. But he also acknowledged the sheer scale of what delegates are trying to achieve. | He was unswerving in his assertion that people are in Copenhagen to do a deal and so long as the political will is there, it will happen. But he also acknowledged the sheer scale of what delegates are trying to achieve. |
| Good Friday Agreement talks actually exceeded the deadline by 18 hours | Good Friday Agreement talks actually exceeded the deadline by 18 hours |
| "This is the biggest international gathering since World War II. It's a huge challenge. There's a feeling that if you can't resolve the issues here, is there any prospect of doing it in six months' time?" | "This is the biggest international gathering since World War II. It's a huge challenge. There's a feeling that if you can't resolve the issues here, is there any prospect of doing it in six months' time?" |
| It's not just international summits that always seem to come down to the wire. Peter Harwood, chief conciliator for Acas (Advisory, Conciliation and Arbitration Service), has been called in to deal with hundreds of disputes in deadlock. | It's not just international summits that always seem to come down to the wire. Peter Harwood, chief conciliator for Acas (Advisory, Conciliation and Arbitration Service), has been called in to deal with hundreds of disputes in deadlock. |
| Few are resolved before the deadline, he concedes, and attributes this to people's tendency to put off the harder issues until last. | Few are resolved before the deadline, he concedes, and attributes this to people's tendency to put off the harder issues until last. |
| "The danger is you don't give yourself enough time to deal with the tough stuff," he warns. | "The danger is you don't give yourself enough time to deal with the tough stuff," he warns. |
| But he also cites Parkinson's Law - work expands to fill the time available - as a good reason why talks can stall. | But he also cites Parkinson's Law - work expands to fill the time available - as a good reason why talks can stall. |
| The trick, he says, is to create mini-deadlines that help concentrate the mind. | The trick, he says, is to create mini-deadlines that help concentrate the mind. |
| "You always try to put deadlines on things. When talks go on into the night, you are trying to keep the momentum, sharpen the mind and put some perspective on things (are they really that important?). With the one caveat, that you want an agreement that sticks." | "You always try to put deadlines on things. When talks go on into the night, you are trying to keep the momentum, sharpen the mind and put some perspective on things (are they really that important?). With the one caveat, that you want an agreement that sticks." |
| In 2000, outgoing US President Bill Clinton attempted to rethink the model for summit hosting by not imposing a deadline on Palestinian-Israeli conflict talks at his presidential retreat at Camp David. Instead, his idea was to lock away leaders and negotiating teams until an agreement was reached. | In 2000, outgoing US President Bill Clinton attempted to rethink the model for summit hosting by not imposing a deadline on Palestinian-Israeli conflict talks at his presidential retreat at Camp David. Instead, his idea was to lock away leaders and negotiating teams until an agreement was reached. |
| Bad for creative solutions | Bad for creative solutions |
| They apparently came closer than ever before, but failed, and headed home angrily blaming each other and offering different accounts of what they did agree on. | They apparently came closer than ever before, but failed, and headed home angrily blaming each other and offering different accounts of what they did agree on. |
| Dr Robert Yeung, a business psychologist for Talentspace Consultancy, is not convinced all deadlines are good and says research shows they can stifle creativity. | |
| "Having an impending deadline, means solutions may be more task-based, not more creative, but we don't live in an ideal world." | "Having an impending deadline, means solutions may be more task-based, not more creative, but we don't live in an ideal world." |
| He takes the approach that if you are sitting round the table, you must want something. | He takes the approach that if you are sitting round the table, you must want something. |
| But negotiating is not quick, nor is it straight-forward. | But negotiating is not quick, nor is it straight-forward. |
| Whether it is how much you are going to get paid, who does the dishes at home or matters of international geopolitics, negotiating involves a lot of thinking. | Whether it is how much you are going to get paid, who does the dishes at home or matters of international geopolitics, negotiating involves a lot of thinking. |
| Meta-thinking (knowing what you want and what the other person wants) is key, says Dr Yeung. | |
| "You have to know what your arguments are, your counter arguments and your counter-counter arguments are," he says. | "You have to know what your arguments are, your counter arguments and your counter-counter arguments are," he says. |