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| Version 4 | Version 5 |
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| UK economy remains in recession | UK economy remains in recession |
| (9 minutes later) | |
| The UK economy shrank by 0.2% between July and September, figures show, an upward revision to the previous estimate of a 0.3% contraction. | The UK economy shrank by 0.2% between July and September, figures show, an upward revision to the previous estimate of a 0.3% contraction. |
| It means that officially the recession has not yet ended. Analysts believe that fourth quarter figures will show the economy returning to growth. | |
| The news disappointed those who had expected a contraction of 0.1%. | |
| The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) said the latest figures raised concerns about the strength of the recovery. | The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) said the latest figures raised concerns about the strength of the recovery. |
| BCC chief economist David Kern said: "While most analysts expect a return to positive growth in the next few months it is important to stress that recovery is not yet guaranteed." | BCC chief economist David Kern said: "While most analysts expect a return to positive growth in the next few months it is important to stress that recovery is not yet guaranteed." |
| The UK recession began in the April-to- June quarter of 2008. Since then the economy has contracted by 6%. | |
| Anyone convinced that the recession ended between July and September will have to wait a bit longer for vindication. If they get it at all. Stephanie Flanders, BBC economics editor Read Stephanie's blog | |
| Recovery concern | |
| "We still find it hard to believe fully that the economy was contracting in the third quarter" said Investec's Philip Shaw. | |
| The first GDP estimate for the third quarter had shown a contraction of 0.4%, but this has been revised twice, first to a 0.3% contraction and now to -0.2%. | The first GDP estimate for the third quarter had shown a contraction of 0.4%, but this has been revised twice, first to a 0.3% contraction and now to -0.2%. |
| However, the fact the economy had shrunk during the third quarter of 2009 took many analysts by surprise when the initial figures were released. | However, the fact the economy had shrunk during the third quarter of 2009 took many analysts by surprise when the initial figures were released. |
| Many had expected the UK economy to return to growth during that period, and some still believe that they may yet be proven right. | Many had expected the UK economy to return to growth during that period, and some still believe that they may yet be proven right. |
| "We are expecting this number to be revised upwards and this will eventually be seen as a growth quarter", said Amit Kara from UBS. "The big picture is that the economy is recovering... we see growth at 1.8% next year." | "We are expecting this number to be revised upwards and this will eventually be seen as a growth quarter", said Amit Kara from UBS. "The big picture is that the economy is recovering... we see growth at 1.8% next year." |
| The Office for National Statistics said the upward revision to the third-quarter figures was down to an improvement in construction output. That was boosted by strong growth in public sector projects, while the decline in house building slowed. | The Office for National Statistics said the upward revision to the third-quarter figures was down to an improvement in construction output. That was boosted by strong growth in public sector projects, while the decline in house building slowed. |
| However, services and industrial production were weaker. | However, services and industrial production were weaker. |
| BBC economics editor Stephanie Flanders said: "There is at least one piece of encouraging news in today's release: the household savings ratio in the third quarter rose to 8.7% of income, compared to 7.6% in the previous three months." | BBC economics editor Stephanie Flanders said: "There is at least one piece of encouraging news in today's release: the household savings ratio in the third quarter rose to 8.7% of income, compared to 7.6% in the previous three months." |
| In his pre-Budget report, Chancellor Alistair Darling predicted the UK would exit recession in the fourth quarter of 2009. | In his pre-Budget report, Chancellor Alistair Darling predicted the UK would exit recession in the fourth quarter of 2009. |