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Does Brown have reason for festive cheer? Does Brown have reason for festive cheer?
(30 minutes later)
By James Landale Deputy political editor, BBC NewsBy James Landale Deputy political editor, BBC News
Thanks to the row over MPs' expenses, we now know where Gordon Brown will go to hide this week if he wants to escape the domestic Christmas chaos of children, presents, and food.Thanks to the row over MPs' expenses, we now know where Gordon Brown will go to hide this week if he wants to escape the domestic Christmas chaos of children, presents, and food.
With the Browns away, all is quiet in Downing StreetWith the Browns away, all is quiet in Downing Street
The well-painted summer house in the garden of his home in Fife is no longer publicly funded. But it is just the place for a prime minister to settle down with a plate of mince pies and contemplate the future in relative peace.The well-painted summer house in the garden of his home in Fife is no longer publicly funded. But it is just the place for a prime minister to settle down with a plate of mince pies and contemplate the future in relative peace.
Mr Brown could be forgiven for not dwelling too much on the last twelve months.Mr Brown could be forgiven for not dwelling too much on the last twelve months.
His party suffered most from the expenses saga. He himself was slow to react to the story and voters tend to blame incumbent governments ahead of opposition parties.His party suffered most from the expenses saga. He himself was slow to react to the story and voters tend to blame incumbent governments ahead of opposition parties.
In the polls, Labour has remained largely stuck ten-odd points behind the Conservatives. In actual votes, it has performed poorly, coming third behind UKIP with just 15% in the European elections. The Sun newspaper - not unexpectedly - withdrew its support. One of Mr Brown's closest advisers resigned for contemplating Tory smears.In the polls, Labour has remained largely stuck ten-odd points behind the Conservatives. In actual votes, it has performed poorly, coming third behind UKIP with just 15% in the European elections. The Sun newspaper - not unexpectedly - withdrew its support. One of Mr Brown's closest advisers resigned for contemplating Tory smears.
And yet, the prime minister may not be too despondent.And yet, the prime minister may not be too despondent.
Huge challengeHuge challenge
Yes, there was an attempted coup against him, no fewer than four Cabinet ministers resigned, but - note this - he survived.Yes, there was an attempted coup against him, no fewer than four Cabinet ministers resigned, but - note this - he survived.
Yes, he was criticised for inaccuracies and poor handwriting in a letter to the mother of a dead soldier - but the public took his side against a media campaign considered excessive and unfair.Yes, he was criticised for inaccuracies and poor handwriting in a letter to the mother of a dead soldier - but the public took his side against a media campaign considered excessive and unfair.
And as for elections, well Labour's convincing 8,000 majority in the Glasgow North East by-election showed the party could, on occasion, persuade its voters to come out. And of course the national opinion polls have narrowed a touch.And as for elections, well Labour's convincing 8,000 majority in the Glasgow North East by-election showed the party could, on occasion, persuade its voters to come out. And of course the national opinion polls have narrowed a touch.
Can Gordon Brown persuade voters to listen to him?
But as he nibbles on his pastry, Mr Brown's mind will be filled with the many choices he now has to make.But as he nibbles on his pastry, Mr Brown's mind will be filled with the many choices he now has to make.
One thing of course is out of his hands - there must by law be an election by 3 June.One thing of course is out of his hands - there must by law be an election by 3 June.
But the timing of the ballot, well that is for a prime minister alone.But the timing of the ballot, well that is for a prime minister alone.
Some say go in March - you avoid accusations of dithering, you give the Tories less time to spend Lord Ashcroft's campaign cash, you avoid having to deliver a potentially unpopular Budget.Some say go in March - you avoid accusations of dithering, you give the Tories less time to spend Lord Ashcroft's campaign cash, you avoid having to deliver a potentially unpopular Budget.
Others say May - the weather's nicer, there's more time for the economy to recover and the polls to narrow, there's more time to scrutinise the Tories, who might make mistakes.Others say May - the weather's nicer, there's more time for the economy to recover and the polls to narrow, there's more time to scrutinise the Tories, who might make mistakes.
Potential successorsPotential successors
One Cabinet minister with Mr Brown's ear told me the assumption is still May.One Cabinet minister with Mr Brown's ear told me the assumption is still May.
But choosing an election date is not the same as winning it.But choosing an election date is not the same as winning it.
Can Gordon Brown persuade voters to listen to him?
That challenge is huge.That challenge is huge.
The prime minister has to persuade voters to listen to him - and many for now seem to have shut their ears.The prime minister has to persuade voters to listen to him - and many for now seem to have shut their ears.
He has to persuade voters the election should not be a referendum on him - but a choice between competing Labour and Tory visions.He has to persuade voters the election should not be a referendum on him - but a choice between competing Labour and Tory visions.
He has to persuade voters that only he can ensure economic recovery - and the others are not worth the risk.He has to persuade voters that only he can ensure economic recovery - and the others are not worth the risk.
He has to mobilise a disillusioned core Labour vote while still attracting floating voters.He has to mobilise a disillusioned core Labour vote while still attracting floating voters.
He has to maintain party unity while his potential successors jockey for position.He has to maintain party unity while his potential successors jockey for position.
For a man sitting alone in a summer house this Christmas, all that must be worth another mince pie. Perhaps even two.For a man sitting alone in a summer house this Christmas, all that must be worth another mince pie. Perhaps even two.