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| Version 3 | Version 4 |
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| Unemployment 'will peak at 2.8m' | Unemployment 'will peak at 2.8m' |
| (10 minutes later) | |
| Unemployment will peak at 2.8 million in 2010, according to the latest forecast from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development. | Unemployment will peak at 2.8 million in 2010, according to the latest forecast from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development. |
| The business group said unemployment would continue to rise for the first six months of the new year, despite the recovery in the UK economy. | The business group said unemployment would continue to rise for the first six months of the new year, despite the recovery in the UK economy. |
| The forecast is more optimistic than previous predictions. | The forecast is more optimistic than previous predictions. |
| Earlier this year, the CIPD had said it expected unemployment to peak at 3.2 million as a result of the recession. | |
| The total number unemployed in the UK currently stands at 2.49 million - or 7.9% of the population - following hundreds of thousands of job losses in 2009. | The total number unemployed in the UK currently stands at 2.49 million - or 7.9% of the population - following hundreds of thousands of job losses in 2009. |
| A further 250,000 jobs will be lost in the UK before the second quarter of 2010, the CIPD said. | A further 250,000 jobs will be lost in the UK before the second quarter of 2010, the CIPD said. |
| But improvements in the general economic outlook meant the jobs market was not expected to suffer as much as previously thought. | But improvements in the general economic outlook meant the jobs market was not expected to suffer as much as previously thought. |
| Pay squeeze | Pay squeeze |
| However those that remained in work were likely to see below-inflation pay rises, the CIPD added, with employers still intending to cut labour costs further. | However those that remained in work were likely to see below-inflation pay rises, the CIPD added, with employers still intending to cut labour costs further. |
| While the Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation is expected to reach 3% next year, pay rises are predicted to average 2%. | While the Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation is expected to reach 3% next year, pay rises are predicted to average 2%. |
| ANALYSIS Martin Shankleman, employment correspondent, BBC News | ANALYSIS Martin Shankleman, employment correspondent, BBC News |
| Has the gloom in unemployment been overdone? | Has the gloom in unemployment been overdone? |
| The CIPD's drastic revision of its jobless peak from 3.2 million to 2.8 million reflects a growing belief among experts that the labour market is behaving quite differently to past recessions. | The CIPD's drastic revision of its jobless peak from 3.2 million to 2.8 million reflects a growing belief among experts that the labour market is behaving quite differently to past recessions. |
| This time, employees have been willing to swallow pay cuts to stay in work, while firms seem keener to hold on to staff in readiness for the upturn. | This time, employees have been willing to swallow pay cuts to stay in work, while firms seem keener to hold on to staff in readiness for the upturn. |
| But any optimism should be tempered by the fear of another wave of redundancies post-Christmas. | But any optimism should be tempered by the fear of another wave of redundancies post-Christmas. |
| And the CIPD also warns that many in work could suffer a pay cut in real terms in 2010, because pay rises may not match the expected jump in inflation. | And the CIPD also warns that many in work could suffer a pay cut in real terms in 2010, because pay rises may not match the expected jump in inflation. |
| Dr John Philpott, chief economic adviser to the CIPD, said it was a "remarkable outcome" that unemployment had not taken off further, given the scale of the downturn. | Dr John Philpott, chief economic adviser to the CIPD, said it was a "remarkable outcome" that unemployment had not taken off further, given the scale of the downturn. |
| "I think the labour market is a lot more flexible than it was in the past," he said. "We've seen employees take wage freezes or pay cuts or shorter hours in order to stave off redundancies. | "I think the labour market is a lot more flexible than it was in the past," he said. "We've seen employees take wage freezes or pay cuts or shorter hours in order to stave off redundancies. |
| "The big question for 2010 is how long that can be sustained." | "The big question for 2010 is how long that can be sustained." |
| Unemployment could also rise higher if the UK economy failed to recover as expected, or the government imposed deeper spending cuts, Dr Philpott warned. | Unemployment could also rise higher if the UK economy failed to recover as expected, or the government imposed deeper spending cuts, Dr Philpott warned. |
| "If... there was a more immediate cut in public spending - which could be the case if the Conservatives gain power at the general election due in the first half of 2010 - unemployment might peak at a higher rate than we currently forecast," he said. | "If... there was a more immediate cut in public spending - which could be the case if the Conservatives gain power at the general election due in the first half of 2010 - unemployment might peak at a higher rate than we currently forecast," he said. |
| An end to rising unemployment will also depend on the continuing recovery of the UK economy. | An end to rising unemployment will also depend on the continuing recovery of the UK economy. |
| Most economists expect the UK to exit recession in the early part of 2010, with the government predicting 1.25% growth over the year. | Most economists expect the UK to exit recession in the early part of 2010, with the government predicting 1.25% growth over the year. |
| Have you recently been made redundant? Have you managed to find new employment after losing your job? | Have you recently been made redundant? Have you managed to find new employment after losing your job? |
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