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| Attack stokes Yemen terror fears | Attack stokes Yemen terror fears |
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| Yemeni militants have vowed to avenge the deaths of al-Qaeda trainees By Ginny Hill, regional analyst | Yemeni militants have vowed to avenge the deaths of al-Qaeda trainees By Ginny Hill, regional analyst |
| The Christmas Day plot to blow up Northwest Airlines Flight 253 in the skies over Detroit was hatched in an impoverished republic on the Arabian Peninsula, according to jihadist websites. | The Christmas Day plot to blow up Northwest Airlines Flight 253 in the skies over Detroit was hatched in an impoverished republic on the Arabian Peninsula, according to jihadist websites. |
| Suspected Nigerian plane bomber Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab told FBI investigators that he was trained in Yemen, where the CIA is running a "covert front" against al-Qaeda, according to the New York Times. | Suspected Nigerian plane bomber Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab told FBI investigators that he was trained in Yemen, where the CIA is running a "covert front" against al-Qaeda, according to the New York Times. |
| US military planners are growing increasingly concerned that Yemen could rival Iraq and Afghanistan as a security challenge, if they do not act pre-emptively to dismantle terrorist networks. | US military planners are growing increasingly concerned that Yemen could rival Iraq and Afghanistan as a security challenge, if they do not act pre-emptively to dismantle terrorist networks. |
| YEMEN FACTS Population: 23.6 million (UN, 2009)Capital: SanaaMajor language: ArabicMajor religion: IslamOil exports: $1.5bn/24.5m barrels (Jan-Oct 2009)Income per capita: US $950 (World Bank, 2008) | YEMEN FACTS Population: 23.6 million (UN, 2009)Capital: SanaaMajor language: ArabicMajor religion: IslamOil exports: $1.5bn/24.5m barrels (Jan-Oct 2009)Income per capita: US $950 (World Bank, 2008) |
| Trainers from the US military have been discreetly working with Yemen's elite counter-terrorism unit for several years. | Trainers from the US military have been discreetly working with Yemen's elite counter-terrorism unit for several years. |
| But during the past 12 months, concern that al-Qaeda could establish a new "safe haven" in the Arabian Peninsula has been rising. Now, the budget for US military assistance to Yemen is doubling. | But during the past 12 months, concern that al-Qaeda could establish a new "safe haven" in the Arabian Peninsula has been rising. Now, the budget for US military assistance to Yemen is doubling. |
| Earlier this month, President Barack Obama allegedly gave his personal approval for the Yemeni authorities to launch a missile strike against an al-Qaeda camp, killing more than 30 people. | Earlier this month, President Barack Obama allegedly gave his personal approval for the Yemeni authorities to launch a missile strike against an al-Qaeda camp, killing more than 30 people. |
| A second strike, a week later, was targeted at a gathering of militant leaders, supposedly backed by US intelligence. | A second strike, a week later, was targeted at a gathering of militant leaders, supposedly backed by US intelligence. |
| But Yemenis are warning that direct US intervention will inflame anti-Americanism and encourage violent extremism in this observant Muslim country, just several hundred miles from Mecca - the holiest site of Islam. | But Yemenis are warning that direct US intervention will inflame anti-Americanism and encourage violent extremism in this observant Muslim country, just several hundred miles from Mecca - the holiest site of Islam. |
| Narrow escape | Narrow escape |
| Yemen has become the new centre of gravity for al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula, following the January 2009 merger of al-Qaeda in Yemen and al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia to form a single transnational organisation. | Yemen has become the new centre of gravity for al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula, following the January 2009 merger of al-Qaeda in Yemen and al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia to form a single transnational organisation. |
| In August, Saudi Arabia's deputy interior minister, Prince Muhammad bin Naif, narrowly escaped assassination when an al-Qaeda affiliate blew himself up at the prince's house. | In August, Saudi Arabia's deputy interior minister, Prince Muhammad bin Naif, narrowly escaped assassination when an al-Qaeda affiliate blew himself up at the prince's house. |
| If the state fails, al-Qaeda is sure to gain a greater foothold in the poorest country in the Middle East | If the state fails, al-Qaeda is sure to gain a greater foothold in the poorest country in the Middle East |
| The bomber, a Saudi national, had planned and prepared the attack across the border in Yemen. | The bomber, a Saudi national, had planned and prepared the attack across the border in Yemen. |
| In an echo of the Northwest Airlines plot, the suicide bomber packed PETN (pentaerythritol) explosives inside his body to evade detection but failed to kill his intended target. | In an echo of the Northwest Airlines plot, the suicide bomber packed PETN (pentaerythritol) explosives inside his body to evade detection but failed to kill his intended target. |
| The botched attack highlighted the intention of al-Qaeda operatives in Yemen to strike outside the country's borders. | The botched attack highlighted the intention of al-Qaeda operatives in Yemen to strike outside the country's borders. |
| It also underlined the importance of Yemen's internal security to Saudi Arabia, the region's largest oil producer. | It also underlined the importance of Yemen's internal security to Saudi Arabia, the region's largest oil producer. |
| State failure | State failure |
| Yemen's terrorist networks have reconstituted themselves since a 2006 jailbreak, when more than 20 suspected and convicted terrorists escaped from prison. | Yemen's terrorist networks have reconstituted themselves since a 2006 jailbreak, when more than 20 suspected and convicted terrorists escaped from prison. |
| UMAR FAROUK ABDULMUTALLAB Son of a wealthy Nigerian businessmanAttended a British school in TogoStudied mechanical engineering at University College LondonSpent time in Dubai, Yemen and Egypt Profile: Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab Bomb suspect was on UK watch-list 'Jet bomber' family tell of shock Q&A: 'Jet bomber' case | UMAR FAROUK ABDULMUTALLAB Son of a wealthy Nigerian businessmanAttended a British school in TogoStudied mechanical engineering at University College LondonSpent time in Dubai, Yemen and Egypt Profile: Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab Bomb suspect was on UK watch-list 'Jet bomber' family tell of shock Q&A: 'Jet bomber' case |
| Since then, Yemen has also paid the price for security gains elsewhere in the region. | Since then, Yemen has also paid the price for security gains elsewhere in the region. |
| Crackdowns in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Pakistan have encouraged al-Qaeda associates to flee to Yemen's "under-governed" areas, where the central government confronts the prospect of state failure. | Crackdowns in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Pakistan have encouraged al-Qaeda associates to flee to Yemen's "under-governed" areas, where the central government confronts the prospect of state failure. |
| The Yemeni authorities are fighting a costly civil war in the north, with the help of Saudi Arabia, and confronting a separatist movement in the south. | The Yemeni authorities are fighting a costly civil war in the north, with the help of Saudi Arabia, and confronting a separatist movement in the south. |
| Yemen's economy is heavily oil-dependent but production has passed its peak and revenue available to the state budget is likely to dwindle to zero over the coming decade. | Yemen's economy is heavily oil-dependent but production has passed its peak and revenue available to the state budget is likely to dwindle to zero over the coming decade. |
| If the state fails, al-Qaeda is sure to gain a greater foothold in the poorest country in the Middle East. | If the state fails, al-Qaeda is sure to gain a greater foothold in the poorest country in the Middle East. |
| Ironically, Yemen's poverty has played a part in maintaining its reputation for piety, which draws hundreds of Muslims and converts from all over the world to pray and study in its mosques and madrassas. | Ironically, Yemen's poverty has played a part in maintaining its reputation for piety, which draws hundreds of Muslims and converts from all over the world to pray and study in its mosques and madrassas. |
| Many are devout scholars, attracted by the hardline brand of Salafi Islam that prospers in Yemen. | Many are devout scholars, attracted by the hardline brand of Salafi Islam that prospers in Yemen. |
| But Mr Abdulmutallab's claim that other al-Qaeda operatives are being trained in Yemen will raise concerns about the process of radicalisation in this strategic, populous Arab country. | But Mr Abdulmutallab's claim that other al-Qaeda operatives are being trained in Yemen will raise concerns about the process of radicalisation in this strategic, populous Arab country. |
| Ginny Hill is director of the Yemen Forum at Chatham House, London. | Ginny Hill is director of the Yemen Forum at Chatham House, London. |