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Stormont coalition to hit rocks Stormont coalition to hit rocks
(about 9 hours later)
By Mark Simpson BBC Ireland correspondentBy Mark Simpson BBC Ireland correspondent
Relations between Peter Robinson (left) and Martin McGuinness have souredRelations between Peter Robinson (left) and Martin McGuinness have soured
Just as the people of Northern Ireland are catching their breath after the extraordinary revelations about the marital difficulties of Peter and Iris Robinson, another relationship crisis is about to hit the headlines.Just as the people of Northern Ireland are catching their breath after the extraordinary revelations about the marital difficulties of Peter and Iris Robinson, another relationship crisis is about to hit the headlines.
The Stormont coalition between Sinn Fein and the DUP is heading towards breaking point, and looks increasingly unlikely to survive.The Stormont coalition between Sinn Fein and the DUP is heading towards breaking point, and looks increasingly unlikely to survive.
As a story, it is much less colourful, and may not excite the tabloid editors and readers, but it could be immeasurably more important.As a story, it is much less colourful, and may not excite the tabloid editors and readers, but it could be immeasurably more important.
For the past five days, the media and the public have been obsessed with the Robinson saga.For the past five days, the media and the public have been obsessed with the Robinson saga.
Is there anyone from Northern Ireland reading this that wasn't talking about it at the dinner table during the weekend? Is there anyone living in Belfast who hasn't heard a cruel Iris Robinson joke? Or received an Iris Robinson-inspired text message?Is there anyone from Northern Ireland reading this that wasn't talking about it at the dinner table during the weekend? Is there anyone living in Belfast who hasn't heard a cruel Iris Robinson joke? Or received an Iris Robinson-inspired text message?
Thought so.Thought so.
The next story to break is unlikely to lead to such a frenzy, but it could have repercussions for years to come.The next story to break is unlikely to lead to such a frenzy, but it could have repercussions for years to come.
Nightmare scenarioNightmare scenario
The demise of the the Stormont power-sharing executive is looking a real possibility in the coming days. The demise of the Stormont power-sharing executive is looking a real possibility in the coming days.
Predicting the future in Northern Ireland is a dangerous game, but here's the nightmare scenario for supporters of power-sharing.Predicting the future in Northern Ireland is a dangerous game, but here's the nightmare scenario for supporters of power-sharing.
In the next week, either First Minister Peter Robinson is ousted from office, or Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness withdraws from office, in protest at the DUP's failure to agree to the devolution of policing and justice powers.In the next week, either First Minister Peter Robinson is ousted from office, or Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness withdraws from office, in protest at the DUP's failure to agree to the devolution of policing and justice powers.
Under the law, they would both lose their jobs. It's a joint office; if one goes, both go.Under the law, they would both lose their jobs. It's a joint office; if one goes, both go.
The rules state that when the office becomes vacant, the parties at Stormont are given seven days to elect a new First and Deputy First Minister.The rules state that when the office becomes vacant, the parties at Stormont are given seven days to elect a new First and Deputy First Minister.
The DUP and Sinn Fein have been arguing about the devolution of policingThe DUP and Sinn Fein have been arguing about the devolution of policing
There would then be a week to save Stormont. Round-table talks could be called, and a stately home in the country could be booked to concentrate the parties' minds - and keep the media at bay.There would then be a week to save Stormont. Round-table talks could be called, and a stately home in the country could be booked to concentrate the parties' minds - and keep the media at bay.
However, does anyone realistically believe that the parties could sort out in seven days the issues that they have been arguing about for the past two years?However, does anyone realistically believe that the parties could sort out in seven days the issues that they have been arguing about for the past two years?
On second thoughts, cancel that stately home.On second thoughts, cancel that stately home.
If there is no agreement in the seven-day rescue period, this would then trigger an Assembly election.If there is no agreement in the seven-day rescue period, this would then trigger an Assembly election.
It would be up to the Northern Ireland Secretary Shaun Woodward to set the date. The legislation does not give a precise time-scale.It would be up to the Northern Ireland Secretary Shaun Woodward to set the date. The legislation does not give a precise time-scale.
Given that an election could potentially make the prospect of a reconciliation between Sinn Fein and the DUP even more remote, Mr Woodward might be in no rush to send the parties to the polls. However, he could eventually be forced to call an immediate poll by a court challenge.Given that an election could potentially make the prospect of a reconciliation between Sinn Fein and the DUP even more remote, Mr Woodward might be in no rush to send the parties to the polls. However, he could eventually be forced to call an immediate poll by a court challenge.
So then it could be an Assembly election in March, followed by a quick breather, and then a Westminster election in May.So then it could be an Assembly election in March, followed by a quick breather, and then a Westminster election in May.
Before you know it, it's the summer marching season.Before you know it, it's the summer marching season.
Rule changeRule change
If all of the above occurs, it is difficult to imagine any serious talks before September. At the same time, dissident republicans are planning and plotting in the shadows, and their spokespersons are telling the media "Sinn Fein got it wrong, politics doesn't work".If all of the above occurs, it is difficult to imagine any serious talks before September. At the same time, dissident republicans are planning and plotting in the shadows, and their spokespersons are telling the media "Sinn Fein got it wrong, politics doesn't work".
For those who want the Stormont Assembly to survive, it's a grim scenario but it's not as far-fetched as many would like to believe.For those who want the Stormont Assembly to survive, it's a grim scenario but it's not as far-fetched as many would like to believe.
Mind you, veteran watchers of the peace process know that just because the rules say there has to be an Assembly election doesn't mean that there will be one. When the rules don't suit, they can be changed. It has happened before.Mind you, veteran watchers of the peace process know that just because the rules say there has to be an Assembly election doesn't mean that there will be one. When the rules don't suit, they can be changed. It has happened before.
But back to this week. It is going to take something extraordinary to happen in the coming days to prevent either Peter Robinson or Martin McGuinness leaving office.But back to this week. It is going to take something extraordinary to happen in the coming days to prevent either Peter Robinson or Martin McGuinness leaving office.
The truth is that the relationship between the DUP and Sinn Fein has not been working for some time. Decision-making has been frozen for months.The truth is that the relationship between the DUP and Sinn Fein has not been working for some time. Decision-making has been frozen for months.
If your computer screen were now to freeze, you would be left with little option but to pull the plug and try to reboot.If your computer screen were now to freeze, you would be left with little option but to pull the plug and try to reboot.
Stormont seems to be in a similar position.Stormont seems to be in a similar position.
The only question appears to be whether it is a seven-day reboot or a long, slow overhaul. At this stage, the more likely scenario is the latter.The only question appears to be whether it is a seven-day reboot or a long, slow overhaul. At this stage, the more likely scenario is the latter.