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US Republicans in upbeat mood US Republicans in upbeat mood
(about 20 hours later)
Republican Bob McDonnell celebrates his recent election as Virginia's governor By Philippa Thomas BBC News, Washington Scott Brown holds up a special edition of the Boston Herald after his win. By Philippa Thomas BBC News, Washington
On the eve of Barack Obama's first year in office, it is the Republicans who are in a mood to celebrate.As the president faces anger over the economy and disillusionment with the Afghan war, his opponents believe they can make a comeback in Congressional mid-term elections. What an anniversary gift. President Obama ends his first year in office with Republicans popping the champagne corks - celebrating a victory in Massachusetts they hope will be a harbinger of political gains to come.
A year ago, the Democrats were speaking of hope and history. President Obama's agenda was ambitious, and his legislative reach impressive. The Democrats took over the House and the Senate. A year ago the Democrats were talking about hope and history. President Obama's agenda was ambitious, and his legislative reach impressive.
They dreamed of remaking American government. In the face of recession, they had to focus on helping to save the US economy instead. They dreamed of remaking American government. They had to switch gears to help shore up the American economy.
Today the state of play is summed up by the state of the race in Massachusetts - where if the polls are right, a special election to replace Senator Edward Kennedy is producing a closer contest than anyone would have predicted. And as of today, Democrats are licking their wounds - still the majority party in US politics, but stunned nevertheless by that electoral blow in Massachusetts.
Number crunching Not promising
This should have been the easiest of fights for New England Democrat Martha Coakley. Instead, her campaign has had to spend hundreds of thousands more dollars to meet a feisty challenge from Republican Scott Brown. The next few days will be a critical test of President Obama's strategic abilities - and nerve. Will he be defiant, or conciliatory?
Martha Coakley is facing an unusually close race in Massachusetts Will he come out fighting for his healthcare initiative in its present form, or back off, accepting that with this vote, he has now lost vital momentum?
Let me stress this again - we are talking about a seat in Massachusetts, that campaign byword for America's liberal left. Young Republicans are buoyed by recent poll results
By the time of his State of the Union speech next week, President Obama may have got through his rough patch to enjoy some smoother sailing. He needs to have the answers - and deliver them convincingly - during his State of the Union speech next Wednesday.
But to make that happen, he needs to keep that 60th Senate vote from Massachusetts. What will he say about his healthcare initiative, and the rest of that ambitious agenda? How does he rephrase "hope and change" to the American public now?
He needs better figures on the jobs front. He needs to have in his hand a health reform bill, which he can pronounce the most powerful piece of social legislation since the 1960s. Above all, he needs to know he still has strong backing from the US electorate.
And he needs polling figures that show the Democrats matching, or still outstripping, their Republican rivals. He needs opinion poll figures that show the Democrats matching, or outstripping, their Republican rivals. And yet the numbers are not exactly promising.
And yet the numbers are not exactly promising.
The independent Pew Research Center reports that while marginally more registered voters intend to back the Democrats in November's Congressional elections, many more Republicans describe themselves as "enthusiastic".The independent Pew Research Center reports that while marginally more registered voters intend to back the Democrats in November's Congressional elections, many more Republicans describe themselves as "enthusiastic".
New dawnNew dawn
For mid-term elections - which lack the drama of a presidential choice - that enthusiasm is often what matters most.For mid-term elections - which lack the drama of a presidential choice - that enthusiasm is often what matters most.
In the eyes of many Republicans, the tide has already turned. Conservative commentator Reihan Salam, co-author of the book Grand New Party, says there is "a real exhaustion with what many folks see as Obama's big government agenda".In the eyes of many Republicans, the tide has already turned. Conservative commentator Reihan Salam, co-author of the book Grand New Party, says there is "a real exhaustion with what many folks see as Obama's big government agenda".
Why wouldn't we be optimistic? Quadricos Driskell, young RepublicanWhy wouldn't we be optimistic? Quadricos Driskell, young Republican
Outside Washington, the Tea Party movement organising protests against the federal stimulus package has gone from strength to strength, with speakers like the charismatic Sarah Palin riding the tiger of populist anger.Outside Washington, the Tea Party movement organising protests against the federal stimulus package has gone from strength to strength, with speakers like the charismatic Sarah Palin riding the tiger of populist anger.
To these protesters, the value of big spending to stimulate the economy matters little.To these protesters, the value of big spending to stimulate the economy matters little.
They complain about the money they say is being wasted in the nation's capital and on Wall Street while small town America is forced to tighten its belt.They complain about the money they say is being wasted in the nation's capital and on Wall Street while small town America is forced to tighten its belt.
Reihan Salam thinks the time is right for an American-style back-to-basics campaign, for a dose of good old-fashioned classic conservatism.Reihan Salam thinks the time is right for an American-style back-to-basics campaign, for a dose of good old-fashioned classic conservatism.
Whether you are a social libertarian or a culture warrior, his argument goes, surely the right can coalesce around a platform of pocketbook issues - less spending, lower taxes, reducing debt.Whether you are a social libertarian or a culture warrior, his argument goes, surely the right can coalesce around a platform of pocketbook issues - less spending, lower taxes, reducing debt.
Who better than Republicans to speak the language of middle-class aspiration and small business enterprise?Who better than Republicans to speak the language of middle-class aspiration and small business enterprise?
But who is going to sell that message to a majority of American voters?But who is going to sell that message to a majority of American voters?
The beauty of the Obama campaign lay in its outreach - not just to core Democratic constituencies like union workers, black and Hispanic voters, but to registered independents, and the many thousands of young Americans who had never before bothered to vote.The beauty of the Obama campaign lay in its outreach - not just to core Democratic constituencies like union workers, black and Hispanic voters, but to registered independents, and the many thousands of young Americans who had never before bothered to vote.
Young bloodYoung blood
I take my question to an entirely unscientific panel of young Republicans at Kramerbooks Cafe, one of the many hangouts in Washington DC that is nirvana for political junkies.I take my question to an entirely unscientific panel of young Republicans at Kramerbooks Cafe, one of the many hangouts in Washington DC that is nirvana for political junkies.
COMING BACK? Republicans Bob McDonnell and Chris Christie were elected governors of Virginia and New Jersey in November 2009, replacing DemocratsMid-term elections in November 2010 will see contests for 36 seats in the Senate, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, and 37 state governors' mansionsCOMING BACK? Republicans Bob McDonnell and Chris Christie were elected governors of Virginia and New Jersey in November 2009, replacing DemocratsMid-term elections in November 2010 will see contests for 36 seats in the Senate, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, and 37 state governors' mansions
Twenty-something graduates Eric, Edwin, Anna and Quadricos all agree that right now, it is just great "playing offense" again.Twenty-something graduates Eric, Edwin, Anna and Quadricos all agree that right now, it is just great "playing offense" again.
"Why wouldn't we be optimistic?" asks Quadricos Driskell, 26."Why wouldn't we be optimistic?" asks Quadricos Driskell, 26.
They do not want to focus on the traditional topics which normally make the heart of Republicans beat faster, like guns, gay rights and abortion.They do not want to focus on the traditional topics which normally make the heart of Republicans beat faster, like guns, gay rights and abortion.
Within five minutes they agree on this: the Republican appeal has to be about the bread-and-butter issues instead: taxes, business and jobs.Within five minutes they agree on this: the Republican appeal has to be about the bread-and-butter issues instead: taxes, business and jobs.
They admit there is some grumbling in the ranks about the way the Republican party campaigns.They admit there is some grumbling in the ranks about the way the Republican party campaigns.
Content countsContent counts
Yes, they say, young Republicans cast envious eyes on the success of Obama's online campaign, "Organising for America".Yes, they say, young Republicans cast envious eyes on the success of Obama's online campaign, "Organising for America".
Edwin Elfmann, 23, says there is a disconnect between old and young in his party.Edwin Elfmann, 23, says there is a disconnect between old and young in his party.
"We look, unfortunately, like the party of senior citizens", he says."We look, unfortunately, like the party of senior citizens", he says.
Anna Pope, 27, says her party has to get beyond the perception that it "is full of old white men".Anna Pope, 27, says her party has to get beyond the perception that it "is full of old white men".
"We ought to be on Facebook and MySpace and Twitter, the sort of social media that appeal to younger people," she argues."We ought to be on Facebook and MySpace and Twitter, the sort of social media that appeal to younger people," she argues.
But Eric Snyder, who at 28 has the most campaign experience, insists it has to be about content.But Eric Snyder, who at 28 has the most campaign experience, insists it has to be about content.
"No-one's going to friend a politician on Facebook, unless they agree with his policies," he says."No-one's going to friend a politician on Facebook, unless they agree with his policies," he says.
He thinks it is time to talk about a "big tent party" that practices inclusion.He thinks it is time to talk about a "big tent party" that practices inclusion.
I ask them who should be heading the campaign to seize this "opportune moment" for the Republican party.I ask them who should be heading the campaign to seize this "opportune moment" for the Republican party.
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, says Eric; Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, says Quadricos; Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, says Edwin; and Anna settles for Virginia Congressman Eric Cantor.Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, says Eric; Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, says Quadricos; Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, says Edwin; and Anna settles for Virginia Congressman Eric Cantor.
Four young Republicans, four different choices for their presidential candidate.Four young Republicans, four different choices for their presidential candidate.
There clearly is no lack of opposition to President Obama and his policies, but there still seems to be no single answer as to who should take him on in the next election.There clearly is no lack of opposition to President Obama and his policies, but there still seems to be no single answer as to who should take him on in the next election.