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| Welsh economy 'out of recession' | Welsh economy 'out of recession' |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| The recession in Wales is over, official GDP figures are expected to show when they are published later. | The recession in Wales is over, official GDP figures are expected to show when they are published later. |
| But experts warn likely public sector job cuts may still deliver a second round of unemployment to follow those in Welsh manufacturing. | But experts warn likely public sector job cuts may still deliver a second round of unemployment to follow those in Welsh manufacturing. |
| Jobless figures rose from 79,000 in July 2008 to 125,000 in autumn 2009, though it has dropped since. | Jobless figures rose from 79,000 in July 2008 to 125,000 in autumn 2009, though it has dropped since. |
| Figures to be published on Tuesday are expected to show the UK economy has finally emerged from the recession. | Figures to be published on Tuesday are expected to show the UK economy has finally emerged from the recession. |
| The downturn has hit Wales hardest in its manufacturing sector, which shrank by 10% according to assembly government figures. | The downturn has hit Wales hardest in its manufacturing sector, which shrank by 10% according to assembly government figures. |
| Earlier in January, the motor parts maker Bosch announced the closure of its south Wales plant from next year with the loss of 900 jobs. In 2008, the firm laid off 600 contracted and agency staff at the site. | Earlier in January, the motor parts maker Bosch announced the closure of its south Wales plant from next year with the loss of 900 jobs. In 2008, the firm laid off 600 contracted and agency staff at the site. |
| Nearly 400 well-paid jobs were lost when metal production ended at Anglesey Aluminium in Holyhead, a major employer in the region. | Nearly 400 well-paid jobs were lost when metal production ended at Anglesey Aluminium in Holyhead, a major employer in the region. |
| Bosch is the latest to bring job cuts to Wales' manufacturing sector | |
| It was the latest of a string of job cut announcements, often hundreds at a time, which include Hoover, L'Oréal, washing machine Indesit and the bakery chain Ferrari's. | It was the latest of a string of job cut announcements, often hundreds at a time, which include Hoover, L'Oréal, washing machine Indesit and the bakery chain Ferrari's. |
| However, business leaders have recently claimed "cautious optimism" about the recovery, with the South Wales Chamber of Commerce describing 2009 as "a tough year". | However, business leaders have recently claimed "cautious optimism" about the recovery, with the South Wales Chamber of Commerce describing 2009 as "a tough year". |
| The highlight of the retail year was the opening of the new £675m extension to the St David's centre in Cardiff. | The highlight of the retail year was the opening of the new £675m extension to the St David's centre in Cardiff. |
| With over 120 new shops, restaurants and cafes, it was one of the largest shopping centres to open in Europe in 2009. | With over 120 new shops, restaurants and cafes, it was one of the largest shopping centres to open in Europe in 2009. |
| But reports by the Centre for Cities think tank have warned Swansea and Newport face particular difficulties in riding out the effects of the recession due to their reliance on public sector employment. | But reports by the Centre for Cities think tank have warned Swansea and Newport face particular difficulties in riding out the effects of the recession due to their reliance on public sector employment. |
| 'Double whammy' | 'Double whammy' |
| Professor David Blackaby, of Swansea University, warned that Wales faces a possible "double whammy" of renewed job losses if expected cuts in the public sector follow hard on the heels of those in manufacturing. | Professor David Blackaby, of Swansea University, warned that Wales faces a possible "double whammy" of renewed job losses if expected cuts in the public sector follow hard on the heels of those in manufacturing. |
| He said: "The real danger looking forward is that people are suggesting it will be a fairly weak recovery, perhaps a 1% GDP growth this year. | He said: "The real danger looking forward is that people are suggesting it will be a fairly weak recovery, perhaps a 1% GDP growth this year. |
| "We have also got public sector job cuts on the horizon whichever government gets into power and Wales has more people employed in the public sector than the UK average. | "We have also got public sector job cuts on the horizon whichever government gets into power and Wales has more people employed in the public sector than the UK average. |
| "So if there are job losses in the public sector, Wales may face bigger falls than other parts of the country. | "So if there are job losses in the public sector, Wales may face bigger falls than other parts of the country. |
| "So we could take a double whammy - hit by manufacturing job losses and public sector job losses as the economy recovers slowly." | "So we could take a double whammy - hit by manufacturing job losses and public sector job losses as the economy recovers slowly." |