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Vote to trigger power referendum Vote to trigger power referendum
(about 3 hours later)
A Welsh assembly vote next week will enable AMs to "trigger" the process for a referendum on further powers.A Welsh assembly vote next week will enable AMs to "trigger" the process for a referendum on further powers.
But the Welsh Assembly Government cannot be sure of the 40 votes it needs to win on 9 February. The Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru leaders will meet later, after confirmation that the vote will begin the process towards the referendum.
First Minster Carwyn Jones has not publicly clarified whether the vote would begin a formal procedure towards a referendum. BBC Wales has learned that the vote on Tuesday, 9 February will be drafted to facilitate the so-called "trigger".
But BBC Wales has learned it will be drafted to facilitate the so-called "trigger". But the Welsh Assembly Government cannot be sure of the 40 votes it needs to win.
A Yes vote in a referendum on full powers in devolved areas would enable the assembly to make laws in areas it already has responsibility for without seeking the approval of the UK parliament.A Yes vote in a referendum on full powers in devolved areas would enable the assembly to make laws in areas it already has responsibility for without seeking the approval of the UK parliament.
Such policy areas include health, education, transport and the environment.Such policy areas include health, education, transport and the environment.
Mr Jones has so far said only that the vote would "move the process forward". First Minister Carwyn Jones has so far said only that the vote would "move the process forward".
First Minister Carwyn Jones cannot be certain of the AMs' votes neededFirst Minister Carwyn Jones cannot be certain of the AMs' votes needed
He has also maintained that it would "keep all options open" on the timing of a referendum.He has also maintained that it would "keep all options open" on the timing of a referendum.
Mr Jones and the Deputy First Minister Ieuan Wyn Jones will announce details of the 9 February vote. But Mr Jones and the Deputy First Minister Ieuan Wyn Jones are now due to announce details of the 9 February vote.
A two-thirds majority of AMs will be needed to carry the "trigger' resolution, which means 40 or more votes.A two-thirds majority of AMs will be needed to carry the "trigger' resolution, which means 40 or more votes.
Attention will now focus on the likelihood of that vote being successful, given that, with two AMs on long-term sick leave, the Labour-Plaid coalition can only count on 36 votes.Attention will now focus on the likelihood of that vote being successful, given that, with two AMs on long-term sick leave, the Labour-Plaid coalition can only count on 36 votes.
Concern over May 2011Concern over May 2011
The reason for any doubt about the vote being carried is that, though the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats both support a referendum, each is concerned about when it would take place.The reason for any doubt about the vote being carried is that, though the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats both support a referendum, each is concerned about when it would take place.
Neither party has yet been given assurances from the government that the timing of the referendum would not coincide with the period around the next assembly election on 5 May 2011.Neither party has yet been given assurances from the government that the timing of the referendum would not coincide with the period around the next assembly election on 5 May 2011.
Both oppose any possibility of fighting a referendum campaign on further powers at the same time as an assembly election.Both oppose any possibility of fighting a referendum campaign on further powers at the same time as an assembly election.
They are against what they fear would be a confusing situation where politicians would be attacking each other as part of the election campaign, but uniting elsewhere around the referendum issue.They are against what they fear would be a confusing situation where politicians would be attacking each other as part of the election campaign, but uniting elsewhere around the referendum issue.
The question of the timing of any referendum remains highly uncertain.The question of the timing of any referendum remains highly uncertain.
Even if all parties agree that an autumn 2010 referendum would be preferable, the pressures of parliamentary time, and uncertainties around a general election mean it may not be deliverable.Even if all parties agree that an autumn 2010 referendum would be preferable, the pressures of parliamentary time, and uncertainties around a general election mean it may not be deliverable.
Exact questionExact question
Following a successful "trigger vote" on 9 February, the first minister would write to Welsh Secretary Peter Hain indicating that the assembly had requested a referendum.Following a successful "trigger vote" on 9 February, the first minister would write to Welsh Secretary Peter Hain indicating that the assembly had requested a referendum.
Mr Hain would then have 120 days - or until 9 June - to lay a detailed draft order for a referendum, to be voted on by both houses of Parliament.Mr Hain would then have 120 days - or until 9 June - to lay a detailed draft order for a referendum, to be voted on by both houses of Parliament.
This would be a very detailed piece of legislation, stating the exact question to be asked, the organisation of the poll, the funding of its costs and its exact date.This would be a very detailed piece of legislation, stating the exact question to be asked, the organisation of the poll, the funding of its costs and its exact date.
The general election is likely to take place within this period and a dissolution of Parliament in advance of that poll means there would be limited time for the order to be scrutinised and voted on.The general election is likely to take place within this period and a dissolution of Parliament in advance of that poll means there would be limited time for the order to be scrutinised and voted on.
But if such business is not concluded before the election, then the order would be subject to the uncertain dictates of a new Welsh secretary and the consultation would start again, pushing the process all the nearer to the autumn.But if such business is not concluded before the election, then the order would be subject to the uncertain dictates of a new Welsh secretary and the consultation would start again, pushing the process all the nearer to the autumn.