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Threat to 25,000 jobs in councils Threat to 25,000 jobs in councils
(40 minutes later)
At least 25,000 council jobs in England will be under threat in the next three to five years, a BBC survey suggests.At least 25,000 council jobs in England will be under threat in the next three to five years, a BBC survey suggests.
The forecast is based on answers from 49 councils with a combined workforce of 256,000, suggesting cuts of 10%.The forecast is based on answers from 49 councils with a combined workforce of 256,000, suggesting cuts of 10%.
Services such as libraries and nurseries also face cuts as councils battle the "perfect storm" of recession - falling revenues and higher demand.Services such as libraries and nurseries also face cuts as councils battle the "perfect storm" of recession - falling revenues and higher demand.
Communities Secretary John Denham said front-line budgets could be spared by making "necessary efficiency savings".Communities Secretary John Denham said front-line budgets could be spared by making "necessary efficiency savings".
However, one expert said nothing like this had happened for a generation, while one union warned of "social disharmony". However one expert said the number of job losses could reach 100,000, while one union warned of "social disharmony".
More than 70% of councils that responded to the survey predicted spending cuts of between 5% and 20%. Councils across the UK say jobs and services will have to be cut if, as they expect, funding from central government is reduced.
Low interest rates mean councils are much less able to rely on their savings Dame Margaret EatonLow interest rates mean councils are much less able to rely on their savings Dame Margaret Eaton
Local Government AssociationLocal Government Association
Council cuts: Have your sayCouncil cuts: Have your say
More than 70% of councils in England that responded to the survey predicted spending cuts of between 5% and 20%.
Roads, libraries, the arts and leisure appear most at risk of cutbacks. Children's social services, services for the homeless and planning appear to be safest.Roads, libraries, the arts and leisure appear most at risk of cutbacks. Children's social services, services for the homeless and planning appear to be safest.
The Local Government Association, which represents English and Welsh local authorities, said town halls had been battling the effects of recession for more than a year.The Local Government Association, which represents English and Welsh local authorities, said town halls had been battling the effects of recession for more than a year.
"Sources of income have dropped sharply at a time when more and more people are turning to councils to help them through tough times," said chairman Dame Margaret Eaton."Sources of income have dropped sharply at a time when more and more people are turning to councils to help them through tough times," said chairman Dame Margaret Eaton.
"Low interest rates mean councils are much less able to rely on their savings, plummeting house and land prices have hit hard and income from leisure centres and a range of other services has fallen."
LOCAL SPENDING MAPPED See the map in detail Find out more about this story on your BBC Local websiteLOCAL SPENDING MAPPED See the map in detail Find out more about this story on your BBC Local website
"Low interest rates mean councils are much less able to rely on their savings, plummeting house and land prices have hit hard and income from leisure centres and a range of other services has fallen."
She said tough decisions would have to be taken, but "councils will do everything they can" to protect front-line services.She said tough decisions would have to be taken, but "councils will do everything they can" to protect front-line services.
Her deputy Richard Kemp said things were already tight and would worsen from 1 April 2011, when the government's next three-year spending programme began, "unless something miraculous happens".
"We know that if the government ring-fences schools, health, defence and the police, other services will need to take a big hit.
"The LGA view is that everything else will face a cut of 16.5% in real terms. Others believe it could be 18.5%."
Many of the councils that responded to the BBC survey were reluctant to forecast job losses.Many of the councils that responded to the BBC survey were reluctant to forecast job losses.
But eight authorities - Kirklees, Leeds, City of Bradford, Sheffield, Stoke-on-Trent, Nottinghamshire, Lincolnshire and Surrey - said 1,000 or more posts might be lost within five years.But eight authorities - Kirklees, Leeds, City of Bradford, Sheffield, Stoke-on-Trent, Nottinghamshire, Lincolnshire and Surrey - said 1,000 or more posts might be lost within five years.
Birmingham City Council, which did not respond to the survey, is planning savings of £69m in the next financial year, which could mean the loss of up to 2,000 jobs.Birmingham City Council, which did not respond to the survey, is planning savings of £69m in the next financial year, which could mean the loss of up to 2,000 jobs.
Shropshire Council has also said it is planning to cut more than 1,000 posts over the coming years.Shropshire Council has also said it is planning to cut more than 1,000 posts over the coming years.
Tony Travers of the London School of Economics said: "Nothing like this had happened for a generation. Tony Travers of the London School of Economics said: "Nothing like this has happened for a generation."
The survey suggests that libraries could be among services most at riskThe survey suggests that libraries could be among services most at risk
"To minimise the impact on the public would require massive efficiencies in all services, higher charges for many and the sharing of back-office staff with other public bodies." He understood the BBC's caution in forecasting 25,000 job losses in England.
But, speaking on Today on BBC Radio 4, Mr Travers said: "For myself I'd be amazed if it was that low. I think it'll be much higher. It could be as high as 100,000."
To minimise the impact on the public would require massive efficiencies in all services, higher charges for many and the sharing of back-office staff with other public bodies."
Dave Prentis, general secretary of the union Unison, said big job losses could cause "social disharmony" in inner cities and conflict between councils and workers.Dave Prentis, general secretary of the union Unison, said big job losses could cause "social disharmony" in inner cities and conflict between councils and workers.
He said: "The government has spent vast amounts bailing out the banks.He said: "The government has spent vast amounts bailing out the banks.
"We always feared that, to offset the cost, they would come for public service jobs. We will not allow our members to pay the price.""We always feared that, to offset the cost, they would come for public service jobs. We will not allow our members to pay the price."
He insisted there was an alternative if councils dipped into their reserves, people paid "a little more tax" and the government closed tax loopholes.He insisted there was an alternative if councils dipped into their reserves, people paid "a little more tax" and the government closed tax loopholes.
Mr Prentis said: "Care is already in crisis. Some councils want to halve the number of care homes, others will follow suit. We'll go from crisis to disaster. Our communities will suffer, vulnerable people will suffer."Mr Prentis said: "Care is already in crisis. Some councils want to halve the number of care homes, others will follow suit. We'll go from crisis to disaster. Our communities will suffer, vulnerable people will suffer."
Care homes soldCare homes sold
Mr Denham told the BBC that councils who were cutting spending in the present financial year could not blame a reduction in government funding, as this had risen by 4% on average.Mr Denham told the BBC that councils who were cutting spending in the present financial year could not blame a reduction in government funding, as this had risen by 4% on average.
John Denham: "Councils should be able to protect and improve front-line services"
He added: "In the medium term, finances are going to be tighter but I'm very clear - councils should be able to protect and improve frontline services, the things that matter to the public, if they make the necessary efficiency savings behind the scenes.He added: "In the medium term, finances are going to be tighter but I'm very clear - councils should be able to protect and improve frontline services, the things that matter to the public, if they make the necessary efficiency savings behind the scenes.
"That's the big challenge, and really local people should be asking sharp questions of councils who are telling them they have got to cut their libraries or their youth services or the other things they depend on.""That's the big challenge, and really local people should be asking sharp questions of councils who are telling them they have got to cut their libraries or their youth services or the other things they depend on."
The councils are budgeting for an average 2.5% increase in revenue spending - covering running costs rather than capital projects - in the year from April.The councils are budgeting for an average 2.5% increase in revenue spending - covering running costs rather than capital projects - in the year from April.
But that is a sharp drop on the average 5.3% rise in 2008/09.But that is a sharp drop on the average 5.3% rise in 2008/09.
In examples of cuts around the country, in Newcastle a homeless hostel says it is having to turn away four out of five people who come asking for a bed because it does not have the funding to look after them all. Its council grant has been frozen.In examples of cuts around the country, in Newcastle a homeless hostel says it is having to turn away four out of five people who come asking for a bed because it does not have the funding to look after them all. Its council grant has been frozen.
Nottinghamshire County Council is selling 13 care homes. It says the money saved will be used to provide supported housing for older people. The county is reviewing its community transport schemes.Nottinghamshire County Council is selling 13 care homes. It says the money saved will be used to provide supported housing for older people. The county is reviewing its community transport schemes.
Leicestershire County Council is planning big cuts in grants to community groups. A community centre in Hinckley, which has 3,000 visitors a week - ranging from pre-school children to 90-year-old lunch club members - fears it might have to close.Leicestershire County Council is planning big cuts in grants to community groups. A community centre in Hinckley, which has 3,000 visitors a week - ranging from pre-school children to 90-year-old lunch club members - fears it might have to close.
Library hours are being reduced at Thurrock in Essex, while nearby Southend says it will not be buying any library books this year.Library hours are being reduced at Thurrock in Essex, while nearby Southend says it will not be buying any library books this year.
The survey was sent to 150 chief executives of county and unitary councils and metropolitan and London boroughs. District councils were excluded.The survey was sent to 150 chief executives of county and unitary councils and metropolitan and London boroughs. District councils were excluded.
Ninety-three councils responded, giving an overall response rate of 62%, although a lower number chose to answer certain questions.Ninety-three councils responded, giving an overall response rate of 62%, although a lower number chose to answer certain questions.
The survey asked councils to exclude schools from their forecasts because they are funded by direct government grants.The survey asked councils to exclude schools from their forecasts because they are funded by direct government grants.


The BBC's survey drew responses from 93 councils across EnglandThe BBC's survey drew responses from 93 councils across England
The BBC is hosting "a national conversation" about the difficult spending choices faced by town, county and city halls. Every local radio station in England will be hosting a live debate at 1000 GMT on Monday.The BBC is hosting "a national conversation" about the difficult spending choices faced by town, county and city halls. Every local radio station in England will be hosting a live debate at 1000 GMT on Monday.