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'Fragile' recovery for NI economy 'Fragile' recovery for NI economy
(about 1 hour later)
There will be a "lacklustre" recovery for the Northern Ireland economy during this year, according to one of NI's 'big four' banks.There will be a "lacklustre" recovery for the Northern Ireland economy during this year, according to one of NI's 'big four' banks.
The Northern Bank's quarterly report said the local economy was expected to grow 1.3% by the end of the year, up 0.1% from the December 2009 forecast.The Northern Bank's quarterly report said the local economy was expected to grow 1.3% by the end of the year, up 0.1% from the December 2009 forecast.
It expects the financial sector to suffer modest job losses.It expects the financial sector to suffer modest job losses.
The bank's chief economist, Angela McGowan, said consumers and businesses still faced "a bumpy road ahead".The bank's chief economist, Angela McGowan, said consumers and businesses still faced "a bumpy road ahead".
"The labour market has so far shown some degree of resilience with companies shedding fewer workers than expected during the recession," she said."The labour market has so far shown some degree of resilience with companies shedding fewer workers than expected during the recession," she said.
"However, a weak recovery is likely to translate into further contraction in the labour market and this will continue into the middle of 2010.""However, a weak recovery is likely to translate into further contraction in the labour market and this will continue into the middle of 2010."
The report said the business services, retailing and manufacturing sectors, which represent over a third of total economic output locally, are expected to grow by 2.7%, 2.3% and 1.35% respectively.The report said the business services, retailing and manufacturing sectors, which represent over a third of total economic output locally, are expected to grow by 2.7%, 2.3% and 1.35% respectively.
It said the utilities sector would also see a contraction, with growth set to decrease by 4.1%.It said the utilities sector would also see a contraction, with growth set to decrease by 4.1%.
ManufacturingManufacturing
"Our latest forecasts suggest that the local economy should not slip back into recession in 2010 if policy makers manage the fine line between financial austerity and sustaining economic growth.," Ms McGowan added. "Our latest forecasts suggest that the local economy should not slip back into recession in 2010 if policy makers manage the fine line between financial austerity and sustaining economic growth," Ms McGowan added.
"The timing by the UK government in terms of putting the brakes on supportive fiscal policy will be crucial.""The timing by the UK government in terms of putting the brakes on supportive fiscal policy will be crucial."
The report indicates local manufacturing will continue to build on its recovery in quarter four of 2009, growing by 0.9% (quarter on quarter growth rate) in the first quarter of 2010.The report indicates local manufacturing will continue to build on its recovery in quarter four of 2009, growing by 0.9% (quarter on quarter growth rate) in the first quarter of 2010.
Although economic output will improve in this sector, employment in manufacturing is expected to contract in the long term due to reliance on the construction sector.Although economic output will improve in this sector, employment in manufacturing is expected to contract in the long term due to reliance on the construction sector.
The business services sector, which includes a wide range of activities from accountancy to labour recruitment, is forecast to "experience sluggish growth in the first quarter of the year but should experience a good rebound in the second half of 2010".The business services sector, which includes a wide range of activities from accountancy to labour recruitment, is forecast to "experience sluggish growth in the first quarter of the year but should experience a good rebound in the second half of 2010".
The report says the retail sector is set for expansion from the middle of the year, "albeit at a modest rate".The report says the retail sector is set for expansion from the middle of the year, "albeit at a modest rate".