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60,000 public sector jobs may go 60,000 public sector jobs may go
(about 2 hours later)
Up to 60,000 public sector jobs could be cut in Yorkshire and the Humber over the next eight years, a report shows.Up to 60,000 public sector jobs could be cut in Yorkshire and the Humber over the next eight years, a report shows.
Most services, with the possible exception of health, would be hit, says a draft report produced for regional development agency Yorkshire Forward.Most services, with the possible exception of health, would be hit, says a draft report produced for regional development agency Yorkshire Forward.
The study by Oxford Economics forecasts a net job loss in 2017/18 of 60,000, or 10% of the region's public sector workforce, compared with 2008/09.The study by Oxford Economics forecasts a net job loss in 2017/18 of 60,000, or 10% of the region's public sector workforce, compared with 2008/09.
Yorkshire Forward said it was not prepared to comment on a draft report. Yorkshire Forward said the study was not a reflection of its views.
'Austerity' measures'Austerity' measures
The study said that almost 29% of jobs in the region were currently in public sector activities, with the figure as high as 35% in Barnsley, 33% in the East Riding of Yorkshire and 32.5% in Sheffield.The study said that almost 29% of jobs in the region were currently in public sector activities, with the figure as high as 35% in Barnsley, 33% in the East Riding of Yorkshire and 32.5% in Sheffield.
It said the overall employment picture would "include some net gain in healthcare, very broadly matched by some net loss in education".It said the overall employment picture would "include some net gain in healthcare, very broadly matched by some net loss in education".
"But the bulk of the pressure would be felt in other activities... including not just the civil service and local authority administrations, but also the police, armed forces and many other public service activities," the report added."But the bulk of the pressure would be felt in other activities... including not just the civil service and local authority administrations, but also the police, armed forces and many other public service activities," the report added.
"Based on experience in previous 'austerity' periods, together with politicians' stated priorities, we judged that the greatest constraint is likely to be felt in capital-intensive areas such as transport and housing."Based on experience in previous 'austerity' periods, together with politicians' stated priorities, we judged that the greatest constraint is likely to be felt in capital-intensive areas such as transport and housing.
Jobs move northJobs move north
"Priority areas such as health and education are likely to be protected relative to other functions, but will, nevertheless, be severely constrained compared with the experience of the past decade.""Priority areas such as health and education are likely to be protected relative to other functions, but will, nevertheless, be severely constrained compared with the experience of the past decade."
The report's authors cautioned that their projections were "heavily dependent on assumptions", not just about the outlook for the UK economy but also about government policy.The report's authors cautioned that their projections were "heavily dependent on assumptions", not just about the outlook for the UK economy but also about government policy.
"Chief amongst these is the aim to move significant numbers of civil service and other public sector jobs out of London and the South East," said the report."Chief amongst these is the aim to move significant numbers of civil service and other public sector jobs out of London and the South East," said the report.
"This could quite plausibly benefit parts of Yorkshire and Humber, resulting in a less negative outlook for jobs in the public administration sector than set out above.""This could quite plausibly benefit parts of Yorkshire and Humber, resulting in a less negative outlook for jobs in the public administration sector than set out above."
A Yorkshire Forward spokeswoman said: "This report was produced by Oxford Economics as an independent think piece and is not a reflection of the views of Yorkshire Forward.
She added: "The analysis of potential scenarios is an integral part of our approach to understanding the regional economy, so that we can best respond to change."