Impact of student vote on Arfon

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Could the new constituency seat of Arfon be one of the first in Wales where students call the shots?

It is an issue that those standing in Arfon realise they cannot dismiss out of hand.

The new seat brings Caernarfon together with the city of Bangor for the first time, a city that is home to 10,000 students for much of the year.

And in this election, students in Bangor's halls of residence have been registered to vote.

Potentially, that means 2,500 first year undergraduates will be descending on the polling stations on May 6.

In a notional marginal seat - which Arfon is - their crosses could theoretically swing the vote.

"We've definitely been trying convey to them that it is important to use their vote," said John Jackson, president of Bangor University's Students' Union.

"All the halls of residence are registered to vote, and we've been trying to get the message to second and third years too."

The union recently hosted an open session with candidates, in a bid to give them a chance to meet those vying for the votes.

But when many of the students come from home constituencies in England - do they bring political baggage with them from across the border - and how does that play with a party such as Plaid Cymru - a party only contesting seats in Wales?

"They are constituents and they have a right to vote," insisted Plaid's candidate, Hywel Williams, himself a former lecturer in Bangor.

"If they look at the policies I espouse, they will vote for me, I think I take a standpoint they would support."

Mr Williams also noted that a large number of the student body in Bangor still come from Wales, with around 700 Welsh-speaking students.

His Conservative opponent, Robin Millar is not about to ignore the student vote.

"It is right to say that it will make a difference - they will all be looking to take votes," he said.

Turn-out

But will it be the decisive difference in the election campaign?

"It will be a fact - certainly," added Mr Millar.

Labour's Alun Pugh is more emphatic: "There are thousands of students registered to vote, and given how marginal Arfon is, they will have a decisive vote.

"I expect Arfon to be a very close result and it could be won on a handful of votes."

Of course - that is if the student vote actually turns out in enough numbers to make that difference.

A recent 'vox pop' with some Bangor students for BBC Radio Wales gave a very mixed response to the election campaign - and the Lib Dems in Arfon said apathy could be a key factor.

"The student vote will have an impact, and the 2,500 registered in halls is only the first years," accepted the party's candidate, Sarah Green.

"That's a big contingent, and the Lib Dems do well in a university town."

Enough to swing it her way?

"I don't think people actually know," she responded.

Arfon is one of Welsh seats that the UK Independence Party are targeting this time around, but for Elwyn Williams, the student vote is not really an issue.

"The word politician is a dirty word for many students," he said, after attending a husting held in the university.

"From the turn out at the hustings - I don't think they were very bothered, you know."

<a class="inlineText" href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/w17.stm">See a list of the candidates standing in the Arfon constituency</a>