This article is from the source 'bbc' and was first published or seen on . It will not be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/rss/-/1/hi/magazine/8697122.stm
The article has changed 3 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 0 | Version 1 |
|---|---|
| Is the British banger dangerous? | Is the British banger dangerous? |
| (about 3 hours later) | |
| Is eating a pork sausage a day bad for you? In his regular column, Michael Blastland puts claims this week that it causes heart disease and diabetes through the Go Figure risk-o-meter. | |
| Out of the frying pan into the dock? To be a sausage this week was to stand accused - yet again - of crimes against health. Pity the pork farmer. | Out of the frying pan into the dock? To be a sausage this week was to stand accused - yet again - of crimes against health. Pity the pork farmer. |
| Most media coverage failed, again, to give us the information we needed | Most media coverage failed, again, to give us the information we needed |
| About three years ago, evidence appeared to suggest that sausages were associated with colorectal cancer; this week, it was coronary heart disease. | About three years ago, evidence appeared to suggest that sausages were associated with colorectal cancer; this week, it was coronary heart disease. |
| Read the headlines and the British banger is a loaded gun. | Read the headlines and the British banger is a loaded gun. |
| But how risky is it really? Most media coverage failed, again, to give us the information we needed. Time, once more, to dust off the Go Figure risk-o-meter, or should we say 'risk-o-meater', my editor asks? | But how risky is it really? Most media coverage failed, again, to give us the information we needed. Time, once more, to dust off the Go Figure risk-o-meter, or should we say 'risk-o-meater', my editor asks? |
| Click through the slide show to see how it works. | Click through the slide show to see how it works. |
| BACK{current} of {total}NEXT | BACK{current} of {total}NEXT |
| Most of the news stories slip up by giving only one number, an abstract percentage, 20% or 42%, to represent the increased risk from eating sausages. It doesn't say what the ordinary risk is. | Most of the news stories slip up by giving only one number, an abstract percentage, 20% or 42%, to represent the increased risk from eating sausages. It doesn't say what the ordinary risk is. |
| But an increased risk of even 100% makes little difference if the ordinary risk is only one in a million. A rise from one in a million to two in a million won't bother anyone. But if the ordinary risk is one in two, then 100% more makes a huge difference. So "increased by 100%" is a very variable feast. | But an increased risk of even 100% makes little difference if the ordinary risk is only one in a million. A rise from one in a million to two in a million won't bother anyone. But if the ordinary risk is one in two, then 100% more makes a huge difference. So "increased by 100%" is a very variable feast. |
| From bacon to booze, risks often make headlines How to understand risk in 13 clicks | From bacon to booze, risks often make headlines How to understand risk in 13 clicks |
| In this case, 20% can equal one person in every hundred, while 42% can equal 20 people. It all depends where you start. | In this case, 20% can equal one person in every hundred, while 42% can equal 20 people. It all depends where you start. |
| It's an argument familiar to Go Figure regulars. One day, perhaps, journalism will catch on. Maybe all stories about risk should be required to include the words "from", and "to" as in: "the risk rises from to " and to state these risks as the number of people at risk in every 100. | It's an argument familiar to Go Figure regulars. One day, perhaps, journalism will catch on. Maybe all stories about risk should be required to include the words "from", and "to" as in: "the risk rises from to " and to state these risks as the number of people at risk in every 100. |
| Meanwhile, it helps to know that the ordinary or baseline risk of heart disease is high, while the baseline risk of colorectal cancer is rather lower. Multiply each of these by the relevant extra sausage risk and you get quite different results. | Meanwhile, it helps to know that the ordinary or baseline risk of heart disease is high, while the baseline risk of colorectal cancer is rather lower. Multiply each of these by the relevant extra sausage risk and you get quite different results. |
| So if the research on sausages and heart disease stands up, this makes an appreciable difference to the risks each of us faces. | So if the research on sausages and heart disease stands up, this makes an appreciable difference to the risks each of us faces. |
| Vegetarians | Vegetarians |
| Bear in mind, though, that the figures are based on eating an extra sausage every day, and that a great many other things influence the risks of heart disease and diabetes, and that links between a food and a health hazard (or benefit) do not always indicate a direct cause. | Bear in mind, though, that the figures are based on eating an extra sausage every day, and that a great many other things influence the risks of heart disease and diabetes, and that links between a food and a health hazard (or benefit) do not always indicate a direct cause. |
| Assumptions: Baseline rates of lifetime risk of heart disease are taken from a study reported in the Lancet, here . | Assumptions: Baseline rates of lifetime risk of heart disease are taken from a study reported in the Lancet, here . |
| They've had a bad week | They've had a bad week |
| The risk of heart disease is also affected by other factors, described here . | The risk of heart disease is also affected by other factors, described here . |
| Baseline rates of lifetime diabetes risk are harder to find. There are published figures for the US and Australia, though the US figures might be affected by higher rates of obesity there. The US figures can be found here . | Baseline rates of lifetime diabetes risk are harder to find. There are published figures for the US and Australia, though the US figures might be affected by higher rates of obesity there. The US figures can be found here . |
| Given uncertainty about their applicability to the UK, we have used a round third as a crude approximation of the probable UK numbers. Diabetes risk varies considerably according to many factors other than sausages. A guide to the risk factors is here . | Given uncertainty about their applicability to the UK, we have used a round third as a crude approximation of the probable UK numbers. Diabetes risk varies considerably according to many factors other than sausages. A guide to the risk factors is here . |
| There is also a perplexing qualification. That one small study - and it was small, so might not be reliable - found that a group of vegetarians had more colorectal cancer than meat eaters. | There is also a perplexing qualification. That one small study - and it was small, so might not be reliable - found that a group of vegetarians had more colorectal cancer than meat eaters. |
| Add your comments on this story, using the form below. | Add your comments on this story, using the form below. |
| The BBC may edit your comments and not all emails will be published. Your comments may be published on any BBC media worldwide. Terms & Conditions | The BBC may edit your comments and not all emails will be published. Your comments may be published on any BBC media worldwide. Terms & Conditions |