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Warming 'already changing world' Warming 'already changing world'
(30 minutes later)
Climate change is already having major impacts on the natural world, a UN report is set to announce.Climate change is already having major impacts on the natural world, a UN report is set to announce.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) believes there is also a discernible, though less marked, impact on human societies.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) believes there is also a discernible, though less marked, impact on human societies.
The IPCC is due to release the summary of its report on Friday, and talks are going on until the last minute. The IPCC is to release a summary of its report on Friday but talks on wording have continued late into the night.
Officials said there were differences between various countries on the strength of the language.
Adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the projected effects of climate change IPCC draft
"The Europeans want to send a strong signal. The US does not want as much quantification," one official told the French news agency AFP.
China and Russia had also raised concerns over some passages of the 21-page summary, the official said.
The last-minute wrangling is likely to affect the degree of certainty in the final version, the BBC's Richard Black reports, but not the overall direction.
Water shortages
Draft versions seen by BBC News warn it will be hard for societies to adapt to all the likely climate impacts.Draft versions seen by BBC News warn it will be hard for societies to adapt to all the likely climate impacts.
The report is set to say that a temperature rise above 1.5C from 1990 levels would put about one-third of species at risk of extinction.The report is set to say that a temperature rise above 1.5C from 1990 levels would put about one-third of species at risk of extinction.
Adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the projected effects of climate change IPCC draft More than one billion people would be at greater risk of water shortages, primarily because of the melting of mountain glaciers and ice fields which act as natural reservoirs. More than one billion people would be at greater risk of water shortages, primarily because of the melting of mountain glaciers and ice fields which act as natural reservoirs.
The last-minute wrangling is likely to affect the degree of certainty in the final version, but not the overall direction.
The scientific work reviewed by IPCC scientists includes more than 29,000 pieces of data on observed changes in physical and biological aspects of the natural world.The scientific work reviewed by IPCC scientists includes more than 29,000 pieces of data on observed changes in physical and biological aspects of the natural world.
Eighty-five percent of these, it believes, are consistent with a warming world.Eighty-five percent of these, it believes, are consistent with a warming world.
Growing certaintyGrowing certainty
Since the IPCC's last global assessment in 2001, the amount of scientific work on observing and collating changes to the natural world has vastly increased.Since the IPCC's last global assessment in 2001, the amount of scientific work on observing and collating changes to the natural world has vastly increased.
In parallel, computer models which project the Earth's climatic future have grown ever more sophisticated, though there are still uncertainties in their forecasts and they remain unable to model some physical processes accurately.In parallel, computer models which project the Earth's climatic future have grown ever more sophisticated, though there are still uncertainties in their forecasts and they remain unable to model some physical processes accurately.
The combination of more observational evidence and better models allows scientists to paint a much more detailed picture of what is happening in different regions of the world, and what they believe is likely to happen in the future.The combination of more observational evidence and better models allows scientists to paint a much more detailed picture of what is happening in different regions of the world, and what they believe is likely to happen in the future.
"What we find is that evidence of the impacts of climate change is much sharper, much more reliable," said IPCC chair Rajendra Pachauri."What we find is that evidence of the impacts of climate change is much sharper, much more reliable," said IPCC chair Rajendra Pachauri.
Countries supplied by glacier melt could face more droughts
"Many of the uncertainties have been resolved; and they confirm that the poorest of the poor are most likely to be hit by the impacts of climate change.""Many of the uncertainties have been resolved; and they confirm that the poorest of the poor are most likely to be hit by the impacts of climate change."
Fresh water is perhaps the most serious issue for human societies.Fresh water is perhaps the most serious issue for human societies.
The world's great mountain ranges, such as the Himalayas, Rockies, Andes and Alps, act as natural reservoirs, trapping winter rain and snowfall as ice, and releasing it gradually in the summer.The world's great mountain ranges, such as the Himalayas, Rockies, Andes and Alps, act as natural reservoirs, trapping winter rain and snowfall as ice, and releasing it gradually in the summer.
Evidence suggests that glaciers are shrinking in all of these ranges. One recent study predicted that 75% of Alpine glaciers would have vanished by the end of this century.Evidence suggests that glaciers are shrinking in all of these ranges. One recent study predicted that 75% of Alpine glaciers would have vanished by the end of this century.
Countries supplied by glacier melt could face more droughtsAs the ice disappears, spring and autumn floods become more likely, with an increased risk of drought in summer. The IPCC is expected to say there is "very high confidence" that these trends are already occurring. As the ice disappears, spring and autumn floods become more likely, with an increased risk of drought in summer. The IPCC is expected to say there is "very high confidence" that these trends are already occurring.
It will also project a higher risk of flooding for many major cities on or near the coast.It will also project a higher risk of flooding for many major cities on or near the coast.
Another significant human impact projected in the drafts is a reduction in agricultural output for most regions of the world.
Africa, most of South America, and Asia are likely to see crop yields and livestock productivity falling.
Temperature rises of about 1C would benefit agriculture in some regions, such as New Zealand and the northern portions of Russia and North America; but greater rises would damage output in all parts of the world.
Carbon cutsCarbon cuts
Some observers of climate issues have long maintained that action on climate change should focus on protecting societies and natural systems against impacts such as floods and drought, rather than on curbing greenhouse gas emissions.Some observers of climate issues have long maintained that action on climate change should focus on protecting societies and natural systems against impacts such as floods and drought, rather than on curbing greenhouse gas emissions.
Dealing with droughtEnlarge Image
The IPCC, however, is set to conclude that "adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the projected effects of climate change, and especially not over the long run as most impacts increase in magnitude".The IPCC, however, is set to conclude that "adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the projected effects of climate change, and especially not over the long run as most impacts increase in magnitude".
href="/1/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/06/sci_nat_enl_1161294210/html/1.stm" onClick="window.open('http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/06/sci_nat_enl_1161294210/html/1.stm', '1161294282', 'toolbar=0,scrollbars=0,location=0,statusbar=0,menubar=0,resizable=1,width=600,height=518,left=312,top=100'); return false;">Dealing with drought href="javascript: void window.open('http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/06/sci_nat_enl_1161294210/html/1.stm', '1161294282', 'toolbar=0,scrollbars=0,location=0,statusbar=0,menubar=0,resizable=1,width=600,height=518,left=312,top=100');" >Enlarge Image Poorer societies are likely to be hardest hit, as they lack the resources to set up protective measures and change their economic base. Poorer societies are likely to be hardest hit, as they lack the resources to set up protective measures and change their economic base.
Adapting to climate impacts, in the IPCC's view, should go hand in hand with reducing emissions.Adapting to climate impacts, in the IPCC's view, should go hand in hand with reducing emissions.
The report has already led to an exchange of words between the European Union and the US, with Europe's Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas on Monday condemning the US's "negative attitude" towards international climate treaties, and saying that a change of stance was "absolutely necessary".
The US ambassador to the EU, Boyden Gray, responded that trans-Atlantic differences were "not that great", even though President Bush, commenting on a Supreme Court ruling that his administration had a duty to regulate vehicle emissions, maintained the US was "doing enough" and saw no need to change policy.
This is the second in a series of IPCC reports coming out this year, together making up its fourth global climate assessment.This is the second in a series of IPCC reports coming out this year, together making up its fourth global climate assessment.
The first element, on the science of climate change, was released in February, concluding it is at least 90% likely that human activities are principally responsible for the warming observed since 1950.The first element, on the science of climate change, was released in February, concluding it is at least 90% likely that human activities are principally responsible for the warming observed since 1950.
The third part, which comes out in May, will focus on ways of curbing the rise in greenhouse gas concentrations and temperature.The third part, which comes out in May, will focus on ways of curbing the rise in greenhouse gas concentrations and temperature.
Richard.Black-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk