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How about 80% going to university? | How about 80% going to university? |
(30 days later) | |
By Sean Coughlan BBC News education correspondent | By Sean Coughlan BBC News education correspondent |
The government is set to respond to Lord Browne's review of funding - with the expectation that it will see tuition fees rising to up to £9,000 per year. | |
The funding review was intended to protect a "world class" higher education system. But how does the UK compare to international competitors? | |
In Finland, 80% of young women are now going to university. It's currently the highest proportion of graduates in the world. | In Finland, 80% of young women are now going to university. It's currently the highest proportion of graduates in the world. |
All those blue-skies conversations about a "graduate economy" have already arrived in parts of the European continent. In Iceland, 78% of women are getting degrees, in the Slovak Republic it's 77%. | All those blue-skies conversations about a "graduate economy" have already arrived in parts of the European continent. In Iceland, 78% of women are getting degrees, in the Slovak Republic it's 77%. |
You can hear taxi drivers howling in irritation. All those pointless courses. More degrees than a protractor factory. Who's paying for all those courses? | You can hear taxi drivers howling in irritation. All those pointless courses. More degrees than a protractor factory. Who's paying for all those courses? |
Except there could already be 80% going to university in the UK. It just depends how you count it. Or more specifically where you count it. | Except there could already be 80% going to university in the UK. It just depends how you count it. Or more specifically where you count it. |
If the cab was driving through the well-heeled streets of Kensington and Chelsea in London more than 80% of young people are already going to university. | If the cab was driving through the well-heeled streets of Kensington and Chelsea in London more than 80% of young people are already going to university. |
And based on the last detailed local figures, in places in south west London such as Richmond and Wimbledon, about two in three youngsters will be getting university places. | And based on the last detailed local figures, in places in south west London such as Richmond and Wimbledon, about two in three youngsters will be getting university places. |
Slipping down | Slipping down |
But what has this got to do with the arguments over student fees? | But what has this got to do with the arguments over student fees? |
It's because a driving force behind Lord Browne's review into university funding has been the need to keep up with global rivals. | It's because a driving force behind Lord Browne's review into university funding has been the need to keep up with global rivals. |
Compared with international competitors the UK has been slipping back in the numbers of people going to university. | Compared with international competitors the UK has been slipping back in the numbers of people going to university. |
The UK has fallen from third to fifteenth in the international league of graduate numbers between 2000 and 2008, according to OECD figures. | The UK has fallen from third to fifteenth in the international league of graduate numbers between 2000 and 2008, according to OECD figures. |
According to this measure, there are now 30% of men and 40% of women in each year group in the UK leaving with degrees. | According to this measure, there are now 30% of men and 40% of women in each year group in the UK leaving with degrees. |
It's not that the UK has fewer graduates, the number has risen year after year - it's that the number has not increased as rapidly as other industrial nations. | It's not that the UK has fewer graduates, the number has risen year after year - it's that the number has not increased as rapidly as other industrial nations. |
The UK has been overtaken by countries such as Poland, Portugal, the Netherlands, Ireland, Sweden, the Czech Republic and Denmark. | The UK has been overtaken by countries such as Poland, Portugal, the Netherlands, Ireland, Sweden, the Czech Republic and Denmark. |
Degrees of separation | Degrees of separation |
Across the OECD, between 1995 and 2008, the proportion of young people going to university doubled - from 20% to almost 40%. It has been a huge and largely unheralded social change. | Across the OECD, between 1995 and 2008, the proportion of young people going to university doubled - from 20% to almost 40%. It has been a huge and largely unheralded social change. |
It's moved from a minority activity to a mainstream expectation - a gateway to middle-income employment. There are now more people getting degrees in the UK than would have had A-levels a generation ago. | It's moved from a minority activity to a mainstream expectation - a gateway to middle-income employment. There are now more people getting degrees in the UK than would have had A-levels a generation ago. |
But what's particularly distinctive about the numbers going to university in the UK is the polarisation of local differences. | But what's particularly distinctive about the numbers going to university in the UK is the polarisation of local differences. |
Youngsters in affluent areas are five times more likely to go to university than their counterparts in the poorest areas. | Youngsters in affluent areas are five times more likely to go to university than their counterparts in the poorest areas. |
At the extremes, the range is even wider. The last detailed local figures, gathered almost a decade ago, showed that only 8% went from Sheffield Brightside and 9% in Nottingham North. | At the extremes, the range is even wider. The last detailed local figures, gathered almost a decade ago, showed that only 8% went from Sheffield Brightside and 9% in Nottingham North. |
Even though the numbers will have risen - and girls will be more likely to get places than boys - it's a massive divide. | Even though the numbers will have risen - and girls will be more likely to get places than boys - it's a massive divide. |
What does that mean for international comparisons? It would put south west London shoulder to shoulder with the Scandinavian countries and parts of Sheffield and Nottingham alongside Mexico and Turkey. | What does that mean for international comparisons? It would put south west London shoulder to shoulder with the Scandinavian countries and parts of Sheffield and Nottingham alongside Mexico and Turkey. |
More for less | More for less |
There is another unacknowledged watershed in Lord Browne's review - in that almost no one is calling for fewer students. | There is another unacknowledged watershed in Lord Browne's review - in that almost no one is calling for fewer students. |
The challenge is to get more students through the doors, at a cost that is affordable to the student and the taxpayer. | The challenge is to get more students through the doors, at a cost that is affordable to the student and the taxpayer. |
Both partners in the coalition government and the opposition accept the broad principle that the economy is going to require more graduates - and that more families will expect their children to get university places. | Both partners in the coalition government and the opposition accept the broad principle that the economy is going to require more graduates - and that more families will expect their children to get university places. |
But what's this going to cost? And how does spending compare now? | But what's this going to cost? And how does spending compare now? |
As a percentage of national wealth, the UK is below the OECD average for spending on higher education. The amount has risen, but not as rapidly as elsewhere. | As a percentage of national wealth, the UK is below the OECD average for spending on higher education. The amount has risen, but not as rapidly as elsewhere. |
The UK spends 1.3% of GDP on higher education - lagging behind 3.1% in the US, 2.4% in South Korea and 2.6% in Canada. Within Europe, the UK is behind countries including France, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Portugal and the Netherlands. | The UK spends 1.3% of GDP on higher education - lagging behind 3.1% in the US, 2.4% in South Korea and 2.6% in Canada. Within Europe, the UK is behind countries including France, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Portugal and the Netherlands. |
Rising fees | Rising fees |
But there's another way of measuring this. | But there's another way of measuring this. |
In cash terms, in dollars spent per student, the UK has a much more positive outlook. It's above average for industrial countries and higher than countries such as France, Japan, Germany, Italy and Finland. | In cash terms, in dollars spent per student, the UK has a much more positive outlook. It's above average for industrial countries and higher than countries such as France, Japan, Germany, Italy and Finland. |
For example, in the UK the average amount spent per student, including fees, is $15,000 (£9,400) per year - in Italy it is less than $9,000 (£5,700). | For example, in the UK the average amount spent per student, including fees, is $15,000 (£9,400) per year - in Italy it is less than $9,000 (£5,700). |
But there are big differences in how this income can be delivered. | But there are big differences in how this income can be delivered. |
Higher education in the US receives the highest proportion of GDP in the world - but two thirds of this is from the private sector. Leading universities in the US now charge students $50,000 (£31,400) per year. | Higher education in the US receives the highest proportion of GDP in the world - but two thirds of this is from the private sector. Leading universities in the US now charge students $50,000 (£31,400) per year. |
In Finland, there are no fees for home students, and about 94% of spending on higher education comes from the public sector. | In Finland, there are no fees for home students, and about 94% of spending on higher education comes from the public sector. |
In this spectrum, the English system of fees and taxpayer support falls somewhere in the middle ground, between the US free market and the Scandinavian state-funded approach. | In this spectrum, the English system of fees and taxpayer support falls somewhere in the middle ground, between the US free market and the Scandinavian state-funded approach. |
A key issue - and a big concern for universities - is whether the current funding review will be about putting extra money into higher education - or whether it will replace public funding with increased fees. Will it switch the balance rather than increase the overall amount? | A key issue - and a big concern for universities - is whether the current funding review will be about putting extra money into higher education - or whether it will replace public funding with increased fees. Will it switch the balance rather than increase the overall amount? |
Students at English universities will also be looking at international comparisons in terms of the current level of tuition fees. England is already in the top five for fees - alongside the US, South Korea, Japan and Australia. | Students at English universities will also be looking at international comparisons in terms of the current level of tuition fees. England is already in the top five for fees - alongside the US, South Korea, Japan and Australia. |
The charging of fees is spreading - with English-speaking and Asian countries at the forefront. The most striking difference is in Scandinavia, which remains resistant to such charges. | The charging of fees is spreading - with English-speaking and Asian countries at the forefront. The most striking difference is in Scandinavia, which remains resistant to such charges. |
But fees have to be set against the availability of bursaries and loans, particularly for low-income families. In this respect, in terms of the proportion of the higher education budget spent on student support, England spends similar levels to Norway and Denmark. | But fees have to be set against the availability of bursaries and loans, particularly for low-income families. In this respect, in terms of the proportion of the higher education budget spent on student support, England spends similar levels to Norway and Denmark. |
There have been relentlessly upward international trends in the past decade - more students, more graduate jobs, more applicants for places, more money pumped into universities. | There have been relentlessly upward international trends in the past decade - more students, more graduate jobs, more applicants for places, more money pumped into universities. |
This appetite for university shows no sign of diminishing. But the next big question, from New York to Nottingham, is going to be who pays for it? | This appetite for university shows no sign of diminishing. But the next big question, from New York to Nottingham, is going to be who pays for it? |
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