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| Intensive care 'disaster' warning | Intensive care 'disaster' warning |
| (about 6 hours later) | |
| The relatively low number of intensive care beds in UK hospitals means it is poorly prepared for major disasters, a report in the Lancet says. | The relatively low number of intensive care beds in UK hospitals means it is poorly prepared for major disasters, a report in the Lancet says. |
| Critical care experts say there may be as few as 3.5 intensive care beds per 100,000 people in the UK, compared with more than 24 per 100,000 in Germany. | Critical care experts say there may be as few as 3.5 intensive care beds per 100,000 people in the UK, compared with more than 24 per 100,000 in Germany. |
| The experts from Canada also said demand for intensive care was likely to rise with an ageing population. | The experts from Canada also said demand for intensive care was likely to rise with an ageing population. |
| A Department of Health spokesman said the number of beds was rising. | A Department of Health spokesman said the number of beds was rising. |
| Extra wards 'nice' | Extra wards 'nice' |
| Dr Gordon Rubenfeld, from Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre in Toronto, said that huge investment would be needed to keep pace with the growing demand for intensive care services. | |
| One figure suggests that by 2030, the incidence of acute lung injury will have risen 50%, driven by pneumonia cases in older people. | One figure suggests that by 2030, the incidence of acute lung injury will have risen 50%, driven by pneumonia cases in older people. |
| Dr Rubenfeld analysed the availability of critical care beds in various countries, and while conceding that the figure of 3.5 per 100,000 might under-represent the true position, he concluded that, at present levels, the UK would not be in a good position to deal with the extra demands of a disaster. | Dr Rubenfeld analysed the availability of critical care beds in various countries, and while conceding that the figure of 3.5 per 100,000 might under-represent the true position, he concluded that, at present levels, the UK would not be in a good position to deal with the extra demands of a disaster. |
| He said: "It is clear that the UK is at the low end of ICU bed capacity, and thus would have decreased ability to cope with a large-scale disaster with many critically injured casualties." | He said: "It is clear that the UK is at the low end of ICU bed capacity, and thus would have decreased ability to cope with a large-scale disaster with many critically injured casualties." |
| Currently, an intensive care bed costs the NHS about £1,500 a day, and Professor Mervyn Singer, from University College London, said it was unrealistic to expect a significant expansion of intensive care at a time when health budgets were shrinking in real terms. | |
| He said: "We are clearly in a worse position than some other countries because there is no spare capacity in the system, with many units running at 100% capacity, or close to it. | He said: "We are clearly in a worse position than some other countries because there is no spare capacity in the system, with many units running at 100% capacity, or close to it. |
| "While it would be nice to have extra wards and staff ready in the event of a disaster, it is not a particularly pragmatic expectation. | |
| "There are things you can do in the event of a disaster, such as cancelling surgery, which frees up beds, but it is very much a 'make do and mend' approach in these circumstances." | "There are things you can do in the event of a disaster, such as cancelling surgery, which frees up beds, but it is very much a 'make do and mend' approach in these circumstances." |
| Local demands | Local demands |
| Dr Kevin Dunning, a consultant in intensive care at Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge, and a spokesman for the Intensive Care Society, said that in the event of a major pandemic or other disaster, the true determinant of intensive care capacity would be staff such as trained nurses rather than beds or equipment. | Dr Kevin Dunning, a consultant in intensive care at Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge, and a spokesman for the Intensive Care Society, said that in the event of a major pandemic or other disaster, the true determinant of intensive care capacity would be staff such as trained nurses rather than beds or equipment. |
| While there had been significant improvements since the year 2000, when a severe outbreak of winter flu caused problems across the NHS, he said the UK was still relatively poorly resourced compared with much of western Europe. | While there had been significant improvements since the year 2000, when a severe outbreak of winter flu caused problems across the NHS, he said the UK was still relatively poorly resourced compared with much of western Europe. |
| He said: "It's fair to say that we would have struggled with a flu pandemic of the scale some were predicting last year. | He said: "It's fair to say that we would have struggled with a flu pandemic of the scale some were predicting last year. |
| "If we have a pandemic of normal winter flu we would be stretched to the limit." | "If we have a pandemic of normal winter flu we would be stretched to the limit." |
| A Department of Health spokesman said: "The number of beds has increased and continues to increase but more does need to be done in some areas. | A Department of Health spokesman said: "The number of beds has increased and continues to increase but more does need to be done in some areas. |
| "However, international comparisons are difficult because there is no internationally agreed or clearly accepted definition of a 'critical care bed' or in the way that services are configured and delivered. | "However, international comparisons are difficult because there is no internationally agreed or clearly accepted definition of a 'critical care bed' or in the way that services are configured and delivered. |
| "It is for local healthcare commissioners and providers to assess the number of critical care beds needed locally to meet the demands of their population." | "It is for local healthcare commissioners and providers to assess the number of critical care beds needed locally to meet the demands of their population." |