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Global spam e-mail levels suddenly fall | Global spam e-mail levels suddenly fall |
(40 minutes later) | |
The amount of junk e-mail being sent across the globe has seen a dramatic fall in recent months. | The amount of junk e-mail being sent across the globe has seen a dramatic fall in recent months. |
The volume of spam has dropped steadily since August, but the Christmas period saw a precipitous decline. | The volume of spam has dropped steadily since August, but the Christmas period saw a precipitous decline. |
One security firm detected around 200 billion spam messages being sent each day in August, but just 50 billion in December. | One security firm detected around 200 billion spam messages being sent each day in August, but just 50 billion in December. |
While the reasons for the decline are not fully understood, spam watchers warn the lull may not last. | While the reasons for the decline are not fully understood, spam watchers warn the lull may not last. |
Around the Christmas holidays, three of the largest spam producers curtailed their activity, Paul Wood, a senior analyst at Symantec Hosted Services told BBC News. | |
"But it's hard to say why," he added. | "But it's hard to say why," he added. |
Inactive botnets | Inactive botnets |
The vast majority of spam is sent by networks of infected computers known as botnets. | The vast majority of spam is sent by networks of infected computers known as botnets. |
One of these botnets, known as Rustock, was at its peak responsible for between 47% to 48% of all spam sent globally, said Mr Wood. | One of these botnets, known as Rustock, was at its peak responsible for between 47% to 48% of all spam sent globally, said Mr Wood. |
In December, Rustock was responsible for just 0.5% of global spam, he said. | In December, Rustock was responsible for just 0.5% of global spam, he said. |
At the same time, two other prominent spamming botnets, Lethic and Xarvester, also went quiet. | At the same time, two other prominent spamming botnets, Lethic and Xarvester, also went quiet. |
There have been huge drops in spam levels before, said Mr Wood. | There have been huge drops in spam levels before, said Mr Wood. |
"Usually they have been associated with the botnets being disrupted. As far as we can tell Rustock is still intact," he added. | "Usually they have been associated with the botnets being disrupted. As far as we can tell Rustock is still intact," he added. |
That means those controlling Rustock could have continued churning out masses of spam, but for whatever reason, have chosen not to. | That means those controlling Rustock could have continued churning out masses of spam, but for whatever reason, have chosen not to. |
Chasing profit | Chasing profit |
One possible explanation is that the spammers are simply regrouping ahead of a new campaign. | One possible explanation is that the spammers are simply regrouping ahead of a new campaign. |
Spammers are driven entirely by profit, said Carl Leonard, a researcher at security firm Websense. | Spammers are driven entirely by profit, said Carl Leonard, a researcher at security firm Websense. |
"So if a campaign is not getting the returns they want, they can stop, regroup and try something else," he said. | "So if a campaign is not getting the returns they want, they can stop, regroup and try something else," he said. |
Anti-spam campaigns have had enjoyed recent success in making life difficult for spammers, said Mr Wood. | Anti-spam campaigns have had enjoyed recent success in making life difficult for spammers, said Mr Wood. |
In late September 2010, a collective known as Spamit announced it was closing because of "numerous negative events" and increased attention. | In late September 2010, a collective known as Spamit announced it was closing because of "numerous negative events" and increased attention. |
That has certainly contributed to the current decline in spam volumes, said Vincent Hanna, an investigator at anti-spam group Spamhaus. | That has certainly contributed to the current decline in spam volumes, said Vincent Hanna, an investigator at anti-spam group Spamhaus. |
"This was a significant operation, with assets all over the world. It's decision to stop operating - or at least lay low for a while - has made it more difficult for [other] spammers," he said. | "This was a significant operation, with assets all over the world. It's decision to stop operating - or at least lay low for a while - has made it more difficult for [other] spammers," he said. |
That helps explain the longer-term drop, but the reason for the reduction in December in not yet understood, he added. | That helps explain the longer-term drop, but the reason for the reduction in December in not yet understood, he added. |
There have, however, been signs that spammers are turning to alternative methods to e-mail for distributing their messages - such as Facebook and Twitter, said Mr Leonard. | There have, however, been signs that spammers are turning to alternative methods to e-mail for distributing their messages - such as Facebook and Twitter, said Mr Leonard. |
In December, Twitter accounts were hijacked to distribute diet pill spam after a list of possible passwords was published online. | In December, Twitter accounts were hijacked to distribute diet pill spam after a list of possible passwords was published online. |
Even so, it is still too early to say the current lull in activity will last, said Mr Leonard. | Even so, it is still too early to say the current lull in activity will last, said Mr Leonard. |
"For years there have been predictions that e-mail spam is set to decline," said Mr Leonard. "But for as long the spammers can generate profit from their activities, it's not going away." | "For years there have been predictions that e-mail spam is set to decline," said Mr Leonard. "But for as long the spammers can generate profit from their activities, it's not going away." |
Mr Wood said new spammers usually pop up to replace inactive ones. | Mr Wood said new spammers usually pop up to replace inactive ones. |
"We've yet to see any evidence that spam has become a bad business to be in," he added. | "We've yet to see any evidence that spam has become a bad business to be in," he added. |