This article is from the source 'bbc' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.bbc.co.uk/go/rss/int/news/-/news/business-12581446
The article has changed 2 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
Previous version
1
Next version
Version 0 | Version 1 |
---|---|
Market research and the primitive mind of the consumer | |
(about 21 hours later) | |
By Sharif Sakr Technology of business reporter, BBC News | |
"The trouble with market research is that people don't think how they feel, they don't say what they think and they don't do what they say." | "The trouble with market research is that people don't think how they feel, they don't say what they think and they don't do what they say." |
So said the late advertising don David Ogilvy, and his words get to the heart of what is still one of the biggest challenges in business: How can you tell if people really like what you are trying to sell them? | So said the late advertising don David Ogilvy, and his words get to the heart of what is still one of the biggest challenges in business: How can you tell if people really like what you are trying to sell them? |
Technology offers an answer to the question that Ogilvy, who died in 1999, probably never envisaged. | Technology offers an answer to the question that Ogilvy, who died in 1999, probably never envisaged. |
Market researchers are already experimenting with desktop and smartphone applications that promise to reveal the subconscious layers of a consumer's brain. | Market researchers are already experimenting with desktop and smartphone applications that promise to reveal the subconscious layers of a consumer's brain. |
What's more, because this technology can work automatically and in real-time, it could potentially be used to evaluate the emotional responses of millions of people before any product is released. | What's more, because this technology can work automatically and in real-time, it could potentially be used to evaluate the emotional responses of millions of people before any product is released. |
And, with one small caveat, this power could transform market research and indeed the whole world of business forever. | And, with one small caveat, this power could transform market research and indeed the whole world of business forever. |
(Oh yes, the "small caveat": to go along with this, you must be prepared to believe that computers can decipher the intricacies of human emotion.) | (Oh yes, the "small caveat": to go along with this, you must be prepared to believe that computers can decipher the intricacies of human emotion.) |
Market failure | Market failure |
Old-fashioned market research is straightforward and unemotional: you get a sample of product testers and ask them what they think of a particular concept, product or brand. | Old-fashioned market research is straightforward and unemotional: you get a sample of product testers and ask them what they think of a particular concept, product or brand. |
But surveys and focus groups assume that people know what is going on inside their own heads - and that is a risky assumption. | But surveys and focus groups assume that people know what is going on inside their own heads - and that is a risky assumption. |
"80% of new products brought to market fail, largely due to failures in traditional techniques", says Rob Stevens, co-founder of UK market research company Bunnyfoot. | "80% of new products brought to market fail, largely due to failures in traditional techniques", says Rob Stevens, co-founder of UK market research company Bunnyfoot. |
"I can't think of any other area of business where such a failure rate would be considered acceptable, yet somehow, in market research, it is." | "I can't think of any other area of business where such a failure rate would be considered acceptable, yet somehow, in market research, it is." |
Lie to me | Lie to me |
Mr Stevens likes to describe his company as a real-life version of The Lightman Group - the fictional agency in the TV series Lie to me starring Tim Roth. | Mr Stevens likes to describe his company as a real-life version of The Lightman Group - the fictional agency in the TV series Lie to me starring Tim Roth. |
Like Roth's character, Bunnyfoot's staff are trained to spot clues in the facial expressions of product testers, which betray their inner feelings - a process known as "facial coding". | Like Roth's character, Bunnyfoot's staff are trained to spot clues in the facial expressions of product testers, which betray their inner feelings - a process known as "facial coding". |
They also use eye-tracking technology to monitor exactly where a person looks during a product test. | They also use eye-tracking technology to monitor exactly where a person looks during a product test. |
Though relatively old and low-tech (facial coding goes back to Charles Darwin), these techniques are capable of yielding business insights. | Though relatively old and low-tech (facial coding goes back to Charles Darwin), these techniques are capable of yielding business insights. |
"When you ask a product tester if they spotted a particular feature on a webpage, they often tell you they did," says Mark Batty of online clothing retailer Boden. | |
"But when you look at the eye-tracking, you discover that they never saw it all." | "But when you look at the eye-tracking, you discover that they never saw it all." |
Boden is in the middle of a usability study of its website, and as its e-commerce manager, Mark Batty has learned not to put much faith in testers' explicit responses. | |
"Often their verdict of the whole site depends on whatever task they did at the end of the test," he adds. | "Often their verdict of the whole site depends on whatever task they did at the end of the test," he adds. |
"If they enjoyed the final task they would be full of praise about the site, even if their facial expressions revealed that they had struggled with it at the beginning." | "If they enjoyed the final task they would be full of praise about the site, even if their facial expressions revealed that they had struggled with it at the beginning." |
Look into my phone | Look into my phone |
The problem with manual techniques like facial coding is that they require a researcher to sit through hours of slow motion video, logging every mind-numbing frown and every humdrum movement of the pupils. | |
This means that studies are necessarily limited to a small sample of testers. | This means that studies are necessarily limited to a small sample of testers. |
Boden's usability study, for example, had a sample of just 30 people across three countries. | |
But this obstacle could soon be removed, by allowing computers to do most of the donkey work. | But this obstacle could soon be removed, by allowing computers to do most of the donkey work. |
"Facial expressions can be read by a computer - it's just the movement of pixels in a piece of video," says Dr Roberto Valenti of the University of Amsterdam. | "Facial expressions can be read by a computer - it's just the movement of pixels in a piece of video," says Dr Roberto Valenti of the University of Amsterdam. |
Dr Valenti and his colleague Dr Theo Gevers are so convinced of computerised emotion recognition that they set up a spin-off company called ThirdSight to cash in on it. | Dr Valenti and his colleague Dr Theo Gevers are so convinced of computerised emotion recognition that they set up a spin-off company called ThirdSight to cash in on it. |
"A researcher gets tired, they need to be paid, they need to be trained." | "A researcher gets tired, they need to be paid, they need to be trained." |
"But our software never gets tired and it can analyse thousands and thousands of faces at the same time." | "But our software never gets tired and it can analyse thousands and thousands of faces at the same time." |
ThirdSight's latest achievement is to get automatic facial coding software running on a smartphone, using the phone's inbuilt camera to record a product tester's expressions. | ThirdSight's latest achievement is to get automatic facial coding software running on a smartphone, using the phone's inbuilt camera to record a product tester's expressions. |
Machine learning | Machine learning |
Of course, all of this hinges on the accuracy of the software. | Of course, all of this hinges on the accuracy of the software. |
And so far, Thirdsight's claims of accuracy are relatively humble. | And so far, Thirdsight's claims of accuracy are relatively humble. |
They acknowledge that you still need a human researcher to oversee the software, because it is oblivious to context or hidden meanings - it will treat both a happy smile and a bewildered smile as "positive". | |
But other scientists are less conservative. | But other scientists are less conservative. |
"We can normally tell between different emotions with pretty high accuracy," says Professor Peter Robinson of the Computer Laboratory at Cambridge University. | "We can normally tell between different emotions with pretty high accuracy," says Professor Peter Robinson of the Computer Laboratory at Cambridge University. |
"Our computers can get an accuracy of two-thirds or better - which is about as well as most people can do it." | |
Prof Robinson's team is trying to free up emotion recognition software from simple rules, such as smile = happy. | Prof Robinson's team is trying to free up emotion recognition software from simple rules, such as smile = happy. |
Instead, they're programming it to digest many types of human expression - facial and eye movements, hand and body gestures, the tone of the voice. | Instead, they're programming it to digest many types of human expression - facial and eye movements, hand and body gestures, the tone of the voice. |
Through a technique called "statistical machine learning", the software then trains itself to recognise which indicators are important and which are not. | Through a technique called "statistical machine learning", the software then trains itself to recognise which indicators are important and which are not. |
If this kind of power and accuracy could be incorporated into a ThirdSight-style smartphone or internet app, then potentially millions of people's emotions could be accurately decoded. | If this kind of power and accuracy could be incorporated into a ThirdSight-style smartphone or internet app, then potentially millions of people's emotions could be accurately decoded. |
"If you do an experiment on Facebook, you've got half a billion people in your sample," says Prof Robinson. | "If you do an experiment on Facebook, you've got half a billion people in your sample," says Prof Robinson. |
"That means the statistics become rather bizarre, actually, because you are sampling almost an entire population to get a result." | "That means the statistics become rather bizarre, actually, because you are sampling almost an entire population to get a result." |
So, theoretically at least, the day may come when no product is doomed to flop - because businesses will have access to almost complete certainty about their market. | So, theoretically at least, the day may come when no product is doomed to flop - because businesses will have access to almost complete certainty about their market. |
Previous version
1
Next version