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Q&A: Blair's exit plans Q&A: Blair's exit plans
(30 minutes later)
Tony Blair is expected to stand down as prime minister after 10 years in the job. What happens next? Tony Blair is to announce he is standing down as prime minister after 10 years in the job. What happens next?
What is expected to happen on Thursday? What is happening on Thursday?
Tony Blair will say he wants to step down as Labour leader. He will invite Labour's ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) to begin the process of finding a successor. The NEC will then meet on Sunday and announce a timetable for a leadership contest. Mr Blair will continue as Labour leader until that process is over, when he will stand down both as party leader and prime minister. Tony Blair is to say he wants to step down as Labour leader. He is going to his Sedgefield constituency to make a formal announcement. Mr Blair will invite Labour's ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) to begin the process of finding a successor. The NEC will then meet on Sunday and announce a timetable for a leadership contest. Mr Blair will continue as Labour leader until that process is over, when he will stand down both as party leader and prime minister.
So when will Mr Blair step down as prime minister?So when will Mr Blair step down as prime minister?
The process for choosing a new Labour leader will take seven weeks. The new leader will be announced at a special one day Saturday conference, expected to be held on 30 June. Mr Blair would then be expected to leave Downing Street early in the first week of July.The process for choosing a new Labour leader will take seven weeks. The new leader will be announced at a special one day Saturday conference, expected to be held on 30 June. Mr Blair would then be expected to leave Downing Street early in the first week of July.
What will Mr Blair do during his last few weeks? Why is he going?
Despite being the only Labour leader to win three successive general elections, it was always a question of when - rather than if - Tony Blair would stand down. When he stood for the Labour leadership in 1994, his close friend and rival Gordon Brown agreed to stand aside to give him a clear run. The pair are said to have agreed a deal over dinner at Granita, an Islington restaurant, which would see Mr Blair handing over the reins at some stage - although the precise terms of their agreement remain hotly contested. In 2004, while under fire over Iraq and facing questions about his health after heart operation, he announced he would not seek a fourth term. He fully intended to serve a full third term but came under increasing pressure from Labour MPs to name a departure date. He finally capitulated in September 2006, following a string of resignations by normally loyal junior ministers, saying he would be gone with a year. He has always said he did not want to "go on and on" like his Tory predecessor Margaret Thatcher but it is also thought he wanted to notch up 10 years in power.
What will Mr Blair do during his last few weeks in power?
Mr Blair's supporters will hope he can use the time to help secure his "legacy". Mr Blair will be closely watching the power-sharing agreement in Northern Ireland to ensure it succeeds. The forthcoming G8 summit in Germany will be an opportunity to push forward an agreement on climate change and to press for the implementation of the 2005 Gleneagles agreement on aid to the developing world. Mr Blair will also be hoping to find a way to reach a deal on a constitutional treaty which sets out the rules for an expanded European Union without the need for the referendums which sank the EU constitution. Downing Street says Mr Blair still has lots of work to do on domestic issues such as health and education before he quits.Mr Blair's supporters will hope he can use the time to help secure his "legacy". Mr Blair will be closely watching the power-sharing agreement in Northern Ireland to ensure it succeeds. The forthcoming G8 summit in Germany will be an opportunity to push forward an agreement on climate change and to press for the implementation of the 2005 Gleneagles agreement on aid to the developing world. Mr Blair will also be hoping to find a way to reach a deal on a constitutional treaty which sets out the rules for an expanded European Union without the need for the referendums which sank the EU constitution. Downing Street says Mr Blair still has lots of work to do on domestic issues such as health and education before he quits.
Who is going to succeed Tony Blair?Who is going to succeed Tony Blair?
It is now seen as a virtual certainty that Chancellor Gordon Brown, the co-creator of New Labour, will be chosen as Labour's next leader. Despite sometimes stormy relations with Mr Blair and his supporters, Mr Brown is not expected to face a challenge from within the Cabinet. He also has the backing of the vast majority of Labour MPs. It is now seen as a virtual certainty that Chancellor Gordon Brown, the co-creator of New Labour, will be chosen as Labour's next leader. Despite sometimes stormy relations with Mr Blair and his supporters, Mr Brown is not expected to face a challenge from within the Cabinet. He also has the backing of the vast majority of Labour MPs. class="bodl" href="/1/hi/uk_politics/5237874.stm">Possible contenders
Will Gordon Brown be crowned leader without a contest?Will Gordon Brown be crowned leader without a contest?
It's possible. Before being able to run to be Labour leader - or deputy leader - a candidate must gain the backing of 44 other Labour MPs. Currently only Mr Brown looks certain to achieve this. The only other declared challengers - left-wing backbenchers John McDonnell and Michael Meacher - have said they will pool their support to try and reach the 45 mark. Whoever has the least support will withdraw from the race and back the other. Labour MPs will have three days, starting on Monday 14 May, to canvass support before nominations close. It's possible. Before being able to run to be Labour leader - or deputy leader - a candidate must gain the backing of 44 other Labour MPs. Currently only Mr Brown looks certain to achieve this. The only other declared challengers - left-wing backbenchers John McDonnell and Michael Meacher - have said they will pool their support to try and reach the 45 mark. Whoever has the least support will withdraw from the race and back the other. Labour MPs will have three days, starting on Monday 14 May, to canvass support before nominations close. class="bodl" href="/1/hi/uk_politics/5177180.stm">Leadership rules explained
Leadership rules explained
Then what happens?Then what happens?
After a couple of weeks, they begin a series of hustings for Labour members across Britain. About four weeks into the contest, ballots will be sent out. After a couple of weeks, they begin a series of hustings for Labour members across Britain. About four weeks into the contest, ballots will be sent out. class="bodl" href="/1/hi/uk_politics/6457597.stm">Contest timetable
Contest timetable
What if no-one gets enough support among MPs to mount a challenge Mr Brown?What if no-one gets enough support among MPs to mount a challenge Mr Brown?
The NEC has said that if only one person gets the backing of 45 Labour MPs, there will not be an "affirmative ballot", with just a single name on it. But Mr Brown will be expected to attend hustings around Britain and will not be declared official leader until the seven-week period is over.The NEC has said that if only one person gets the backing of 45 Labour MPs, there will not be an "affirmative ballot", with just a single name on it. But Mr Brown will be expected to attend hustings around Britain and will not be declared official leader until the seven-week period is over.
Who gets to vote in the leadership contest?Who gets to vote in the leadership contest?
Labour MPs, members of a trade union who pay the political levy and members of local constituency Labour parties.Labour MPs, members of a trade union who pay the political levy and members of local constituency Labour parties.
What is the threshold for winning?What is the threshold for winning?
Any candidate who gets more than half the votes cast will win. In any leadership contest, Mr Brown is seen as likely to achieve this easily.Any candidate who gets more than half the votes cast will win. In any leadership contest, Mr Brown is seen as likely to achieve this easily.
What about John Prescott?What about John Prescott?
The deputy Labour leader, and deputy prime minister, John Prescott is also stepping down. The fact that he is stepping down means there will be a contest to choose a new deputy Labour leader, although it will be up to the new prime minister to decide whether or not that person becomes deputy prime minister or not.The deputy Labour leader, and deputy prime minister, John Prescott is also stepping down. The fact that he is stepping down means there will be a contest to choose a new deputy Labour leader, although it will be up to the new prime minister to decide whether or not that person becomes deputy prime minister or not.
Who will succeed him as deputy Labour leader?Who will succeed him as deputy Labour leader?
A genuine contest is more likely here, with six candidates declared, all of them seen as serious contenders. These are: International Development Secretary Hilary Benn; Labour chairman Hazel Blears; backbencher Jon Cruddas; Northern Ireland Secretary Peter Hain; Constitutional Affairs Minister Harriet Harman; and Education Secretary Alan Johnson.A genuine contest is more likely here, with six candidates declared, all of them seen as serious contenders. These are: International Development Secretary Hilary Benn; Labour chairman Hazel Blears; backbencher Jon Cruddas; Northern Ireland Secretary Peter Hain; Constitutional Affairs Minister Harriet Harman; and Education Secretary Alan Johnson.
So there will be a six way contest for the deputy leadership?So there will be a six way contest for the deputy leadership?
Probably not. It seems unlikely that all of the candidates will gain the 44 signatures necessary to get on to the ballot paper.Probably not. It seems unlikely that all of the candidates will gain the 44 signatures necessary to get on to the ballot paper.