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Double cot death risk 'distorted' | Double cot death risk 'distorted' |
(1 day later) | |
The chances of your second child dying of cot death after losing your first have been overestimated, according to a new study set to reignite the debate. | The chances of your second child dying of cot death after losing your first have been overestimated, according to a new study set to reignite the debate. |
Failure to hold a post-mortem, rule out murder or check for familial causes meant eight studies into the condition were defective, the UK research said. | Failure to hold a post-mortem, rule out murder or check for familial causes meant eight studies into the condition were defective, the UK research said. |
The authors of the report, published in Archives of Disease in Childhood, hope to reassure those who had lost a child. | |
But implying that murder may sometimes be involved will prove controversial. | But implying that murder may sometimes be involved will prove controversial. |
"It is likely there are some cases in which homicide is to blame," says Dr Christopher Bacon, the co-author of the report. | "It is likely there are some cases in which homicide is to blame," says Dr Christopher Bacon, the co-author of the report. |
"But my main intention is to get the message across to those parents who have lost their first child that they do not have a significant risk of losing a second." | "But my main intention is to get the message across to those parents who have lost their first child that they do not have a significant risk of losing a second." |
Dr Bacon looked at eight studies produced in English since 1970 which had reported relative risks of cot death recurring ranging from 1.7 to 10.1 times that of the general population. | Dr Bacon looked at eight studies produced in English since 1970 which had reported relative risks of cot death recurring ranging from 1.7 to 10.1 times that of the general population. |
'Extreme opinions' | 'Extreme opinions' |
The convictions of several mothers accused of murdering their young children have been overturned on appeal, mainly on the grounds that after losing one child to cot death there is a much higher chance of losing a second. | |
The prominent paediatrician Sir Roy Meadow was struck off by the General Medical Council after telling a court in the case of the late Sally Clark - accused of killing her two sons - that the chances of losing two children to cot death were 73m to one. | The prominent paediatrician Sir Roy Meadow was struck off by the General Medical Council after telling a court in the case of the late Sally Clark - accused of killing her two sons - that the chances of losing two children to cot death were 73m to one. |
Although the risk of a second death might be slightly increased, it remains very small Report Q&A: Cot death | Although the risk of a second death might be slightly increased, it remains very small Report Q&A: Cot death |
His figures were disputed by the Royal Statistical Society and other experts who said the odds of a second cot death were closer to 200 to one. | His figures were disputed by the Royal Statistical Society and other experts who said the odds of a second cot death were closer to 200 to one. |
"Professor Meadow is one extreme," says Dr Bacon. | "Professor Meadow is one extreme," says Dr Bacon. |
"But there are extremes at the other end too. Quite simply, there is no evidence to back up the 1 in 200 assertion. And it is extremely worrying for parents who have lost a child." | "But there are extremes at the other end too. Quite simply, there is no evidence to back up the 1 in 200 assertion. And it is extremely worrying for parents who have lost a child." |
Dr Bacon is not the first to raise doubts about the figures. Last year, a report in the British Medical Journal raised similar questions about a Lancet study which concluded that almost 90% of second deaths in the same family are natural. | Dr Bacon is not the first to raise doubts about the figures. Last year, a report in the British Medical Journal raised similar questions about a Lancet study which concluded that almost 90% of second deaths in the same family are natural. |
Accusing parents | Accusing parents |
Professor Robert Carpenter stands by those figures. | Professor Robert Carpenter stands by those figures. |
Sir Roy was struck off by the GMC for his 'misleading evidence' | Sir Roy was struck off by the GMC for his 'misleading evidence' |
"It is important that parents do not live in fear that they will lose their second child too. But the 80-90% risk factor is based on very large samples. | "It is important that parents do not live in fear that they will lose their second child too. But the 80-90% risk factor is based on very large samples. |
"Dr Bacon wants the bar of suspicion to be much lower and I simply don't agree with that," he said, adding that he would prefer to see a guilty parent exonerated than an innocent one sent to prison. | "Dr Bacon wants the bar of suspicion to be much lower and I simply don't agree with that," he said, adding that he would prefer to see a guilty parent exonerated than an innocent one sent to prison. |
Since 1991, the number of cot deaths has fallen by 75%, but seven babies still die this way every week in the UK. Reports of losing two children to cot death however remain very rare indeed. | Since 1991, the number of cot deaths has fallen by 75%, but seven babies still die this way every week in the UK. Reports of losing two children to cot death however remain very rare indeed. |
The Foundation for the Study of Infant Deaths (FSID) said it welcomed all new research. | The Foundation for the Study of Infant Deaths (FSID) said it welcomed all new research. |
"This review will reassure bereaved parents that the chance of suffering a repeat sudden and unexplained death is low, especially in families where no major risk factors, such as a smoker in the household, are present. | "This review will reassure bereaved parents that the chance of suffering a repeat sudden and unexplained death is low, especially in families where no major risk factors, such as a smoker in the household, are present. |
"FSID stresses that it is very important that all infant deaths are investigated carefully and comprehensively." | "FSID stresses that it is very important that all infant deaths are investigated carefully and comprehensively." |
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