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Florida primary campaign: Romney up, Gingrich down - live Florida primary campaign: Romney up, Gingrich down - live
(40 minutes later)
1.27pm: Janine Gibson notes that the NBC affiliates here are still airing the Romney ad that features their former evening news anchor, Tom Brokaw. The ad consists entirely of an extended clip from Brokow, introducing a segment reporting on the censure of Newt Gingrich for ethics violations when he was House speaker.
NBC has called for Romney to pull the ad after Brokaw said he was "extremely uncomfortable" being dragged into the primary crossfire. On the NBC Today show this morning, presenter Matt Lauer pressed Romney on the issue: "You will give some consideration to pulling it if that's what the decision of your campaign is?"
Romney replied:
We'll certainly consider that very carefully. This was not something taken from hidden files. This was on the evening news, so it should hardly come as a revealing piece for people who watch it.
(source: Huffpo)
1.09pm: Richard Adams has made it to the Gingrich campaign stop. Let's do the TV news channel thing and get him to fill airtime by eruditely describing the atmosphere, shall we?
Live from an aircraft hangar at a small airfield on the outskirts of Tampa, awaiting Newt Gingrich's arrival.
It may be a soulless empty aircraft hangar but Newt's people are trying to give it a homely touch by erecting dark blue drapes across the hall to lop off about half the space. I'm sitting next to the New York Times's Jeff Zeleny so that's kind of like winning a Pulitzer prize right there.
The crowd has just been let in, although crowd is a slight exaggeration – maybe 100 so far.
Thanks Richard! More from him as we get it.
12.57pm: Janine Gibson has fulfilled her promise of spending the morning watching non-news TV channels, in her quest to track the candidates' TV ad spend.
From the media monitoring HQ, I can report that at 10.15am Newt's "Romney is a bad Liberal Governor" did make it to NBC, in a mystifying pumpkin cooking segment which was clearly recorded in October. It's 75 degrees outside. Not that we're going anywhere near the outside, readers. Not when it's time for a rerun of Wheel of Fortune.
That ad, which appears to have been thrown together using My First Powerpoint software, airs three times during this hopefully little-watched show, meaning I am able to confirm definitively that there are two Ls, two Rs and 6 vowels in Liberal Governor. Switching back to the showbiz buzz section of Today – a program that does indeed seem to go on ALL DAY – I'm learning more about diabetes and how to treat it, but little about the Republican candidates.
Finally at 12.27pm, Miriam Adelson's $5m airtime buy kicks in and a glossy Gingrich super PAC attack ad airs on NBC ). Describing Romney as "Obama's running mate" with upgraded, super-scary strings, the ad is paid for by Winning Our Future.
And is swiftly followed in the same ad break by our old favourite, "Newt is no Reagan:.
This reporter is able to confirm that the money is indeed being spent aiming at Today's women, next to a segment about How to be Fierce and Feminine and get Everything You Want. Ideally, after watching this segment I'll be able to get someone else to watch the ads.
12.41pm: Rick Santorum has pretty much abandoned the race here in Florida, recognising that he is likely to lose badly here. Santorum had been due to campaign in the state on Sunday and today, but his daughter, who has a genetic disorder, was sick at the weekend and he cancelled engagements to remain with her. Our correspondent Chris McGreal says he won't return to Florida, "choosing instead to campaign in Missouri and Minnesota on Monday, which have a primary and a caucus in early February, before moving on to Colorado and Nevada on Tuesday".12.41pm: Rick Santorum has pretty much abandoned the race here in Florida, recognising that he is likely to lose badly here. Santorum had been due to campaign in the state on Sunday and today, but his daughter, who has a genetic disorder, was sick at the weekend and he cancelled engagements to remain with her. Our correspondent Chris McGreal says he won't return to Florida, "choosing instead to campaign in Missouri and Minnesota on Monday, which have a primary and a caucus in early February, before moving on to Colorado and Nevada on Tuesday".
12.31pm: Our correspondent Suzanne Goldenberg has been meeting homeowners facing foreclosure in Florida, and taking their concerns to the candidates campaiging here. She and our videographer Laurence Topham made this film.12.31pm: Our correspondent Suzanne Goldenberg has been meeting homeowners facing foreclosure in Florida, and taking their concerns to the candidates campaiging here. She and our videographer Laurence Topham made this film.
This is Matt Wells taking over from Richard Adams, who has gone to a Newt Gingrich campaign stop here in Tampa. We'll hear from him soon. Meanwhile Adam Gabbatt is on his way to a Mitt Romney event in nearby Dunedin, which is due to start at 2.15pm.This is Matt Wells taking over from Richard Adams, who has gone to a Newt Gingrich campaign stop here in Tampa. We'll hear from him soon. Meanwhile Adam Gabbatt is on his way to a Mitt Romney event in nearby Dunedin, which is due to start at 2.15pm.
11.41pm: And don't miss this "leaked" Gingrich campaign memo preparing the post-Florida defeat groundwork.11.41pm: And don't miss this "leaked" Gingrich campaign memo preparing the post-Florida defeat groundwork.
11.26am: Mitt Romney hasn't just flip-flopped his political positions over the years, he's also flip-flopped his financial holdings as well, we learn from this excellent Boston Globe piece about Romney's lawyer, the fabulously named R Bradford Malt, "a lanky 57-year-old with a penchant for pulling office pranks," according to the Globe:11.26am: Mitt Romney hasn't just flip-flopped his political positions over the years, he's also flip-flopped his financial holdings as well, we learn from this excellent Boston Globe piece about Romney's lawyer, the fabulously named R Bradford Malt, "a lanky 57-year-old with a penchant for pulling office pranks," according to the Globe:
In 2007, as Romney prepared his first run for president, Malt sold stock in dozens of potentially controversial companies, including casino operators, tobacco growers, and firms with ties to Iran. Last year, after Romney pushed for tougher trade sanctions against China, Malt dumped a number of Chinese holdings. He recently shed a money market mutual fund that had invested in government-backed mortgage companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are blamed for exacerbating the housing bust.In 2007, as Romney prepared his first run for president, Malt sold stock in dozens of potentially controversial companies, including casino operators, tobacco growers, and firms with ties to Iran. Last year, after Romney pushed for tougher trade sanctions against China, Malt dumped a number of Chinese holdings. He recently shed a money market mutual fund that had invested in government-backed mortgage companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are blamed for exacerbating the housing bust.
In early 2010, as Romney advanced toward a second presidential campaign, Malt decided to close the $3 million UBS account he set up in Switzerland seven years earlier, realizing it could become a political issue. In 2009, the US government sued UBS to obtain the names of thousands of Americans who secretly held billions of dollars in Swiss accounts.In early 2010, as Romney advanced toward a second presidential campaign, Malt decided to close the $3 million UBS account he set up in Switzerland seven years earlier, realizing it could become a political issue. In 2009, the US government sued UBS to obtain the names of thousands of Americans who secretly held billions of dollars in Swiss accounts.
Oh dear: Iran, China, Swiss bank accounts, Fannie and Freddie. Those attacks ads practically write themselves.Oh dear: Iran, China, Swiss bank accounts, Fannie and Freddie. Those attacks ads practically write themselves.
11.08am: There's much talk on the campaign trail today on the New York Times's Jeff Zeleney's big piece on the silence of Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida and a conservative touchstone.11.08am: There's much talk on the campaign trail today on the New York Times's Jeff Zeleney's big piece on the silence of Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida and a conservative touchstone.
Unlike a lot of heavyweight Republicans, Jeb Bush has signally failed to publicly endorse Mitt Romney in the face of Newt Gingrich's campaign:Unlike a lot of heavyweight Republicans, Jeb Bush has signally failed to publicly endorse Mitt Romney in the face of Newt Gingrich's campaign:
It has not been for a lack of effort by Mr Romney, who has made phone calls, traded e-mails and met privately to try to win over Mr Bush. The campaign was poised to make him a national co-chairman, a role Mr Bush would have shared with Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, but several Republicans familiar with the offer say it was declined.It has not been for a lack of effort by Mr Romney, who has made phone calls, traded e-mails and met privately to try to win over Mr Bush. The campaign was poised to make him a national co-chairman, a role Mr Bush would have shared with Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, but several Republicans familiar with the offer say it was declined.
There's some tantalising details in here, such as this:There's some tantalising details in here, such as this:
Mr Bush has made clear in television interviews and in conversations with friends that he is troubled by the sharpening tenor of the race, particularly on immigration. He voiced his concern directly to Mr Romney, two people close to him said, urging him to moderate his oratory and views to avoid a collapse of support among Hispanic voters in the general election.Mr Bush has made clear in television interviews and in conversations with friends that he is troubled by the sharpening tenor of the race, particularly on immigration. He voiced his concern directly to Mr Romney, two people close to him said, urging him to moderate his oratory and views to avoid a collapse of support among Hispanic voters in the general election.
10.51am: Now here's a bargain: a 2005 Chrysler 300C open for bidding on eBay for a mere $1m. That's one million dollars. Now, they say the US auto industry has recovered its mojo but that's ridiculous.10.51am: Now here's a bargain: a 2005 Chrysler 300C open for bidding on eBay for a mere $1m. That's one million dollars. Now, they say the US auto industry has recovered its mojo but that's ridiculous.
And the $1m reason is included in the seller's comments:And the $1m reason is included in the seller's comments:
2005 Chrysler 300C - leased by President Barack Obama. We have the original Illinois title showing this vehicle was actually used by Barack. 19,000 miles driven when this vehicle was Obama's - I'm sure many of them were highway miles back & forth from Chicago to Springfield since Barack was an Illinois State Senator during 2004.2005 Chrysler 300C - leased by President Barack Obama. We have the original Illinois title showing this vehicle was actually used by Barack. 19,000 miles driven when this vehicle was Obama's - I'm sure many of them were highway miles back & forth from Chicago to Springfield since Barack was an Illinois State Senator during 2004.
The eBay listing now has a photo of the car's title showing the vehicle was listed in Obama's name on 13 July, 2004 when the vehicle had just two miles on it.The eBay listing now has a photo of the car's title showing the vehicle was listed in Obama's name on 13 July, 2004 when the vehicle had just two miles on it.
10.27am: The Guardian's Janine Gibson has allocated herself the task of watching Florida TV channels on a continuous loop in order to assess the weight of the carpet-bombing unleashed by the Romney and Gingrich campaigns.10.27am: The Guardian's Janine Gibson has allocated herself the task of watching Florida TV channels on a continuous loop in order to assess the weight of the carpet-bombing unleashed by the Romney and Gingrich campaigns.
She will be updating throughout the day: here is her first installment.She will be updating throughout the day: here is her first installment.
Yesterday I drove from Orlando to Tampa to a soundtrack of local stations playing soft rock and terrifying radio ads. To the strains of scary strings, every 15 minutes a sinister-voice-over would declare Newt Gingrich to be a Washington stooge paid "over $1.6m" as "a historian. Really?" An official ad, it ends with the pay off: "I'm Mitt Romney and I approve this message".Yesterday I drove from Orlando to Tampa to a soundtrack of local stations playing soft rock and terrifying radio ads. To the strains of scary strings, every 15 minutes a sinister-voice-over would declare Newt Gingrich to be a Washington stooge paid "over $1.6m" as "a historian. Really?" An official ad, it ends with the pay off: "I'm Mitt Romney and I approve this message".
Seeking balance, I'm spending the morning in front of the TV here in Tampa, monitoring the well-known massive Florida media buy. The campaigns have, they boast, become more sophisticated in their ad buying - moving out of the obvious and pursuing the Republican voter in programs ranging from CSI to the Weather Channel and rejecting Shows Watched By Democrats, such as Two and A Half Men. Let's test this out.Seeking balance, I'm spending the morning in front of the TV here in Tampa, monitoring the well-known massive Florida media buy. The campaigns have, they boast, become more sophisticated in their ad buying - moving out of the obvious and pursuing the Republican voter in programs ranging from CSI to the Weather Channel and rejecting Shows Watched By Democrats, such as Two and A Half Men. Let's test this out.
After two segments of the Today show on NBC, I'm fully across why your personality might give you diabetes, but haven't seen a single campaign ad. We can but conclude that Today is a SWBD. Maybe it's a Matt Lauer thing.After two segments of the Today show on NBC, I'm fully across why your personality might give you diabetes, but haven't seen a single campaign ad. We can but conclude that Today is a SWBD. Maybe it's a Matt Lauer thing.
CBS News 10, however, is pay dirt. First up, our favourite pedantic appendix reader ad: "From the debates you'd think Newt Gingrich was Ronald Reagan's vice president, but in his diaries Reagan mentioned Gingrich only ONCE". Paid for by Romney SuperPAC Restore Our Future, this ad concludes triumphantly: "Gingrich is no Ronald Reagan".CBS News 10, however, is pay dirt. First up, our favourite pedantic appendix reader ad: "From the debates you'd think Newt Gingrich was Ronald Reagan's vice president, but in his diaries Reagan mentioned Gingrich only ONCE". Paid for by Romney SuperPAC Restore Our Future, this ad concludes triumphantly: "Gingrich is no Ronald Reagan".
But just when you might be feeling sorry for Newt, up he pops. His effort is somewhat less glossy and is a little incoherent, but in essence is this: "Mitt Romney ... Liberal Governor ... increased taxes... Can we trust him... I'm Newt Gingrich and I approve this message". (Full transcript and ad here). I've seen this ad three times now. Four. It's playing again. Make it stop!But just when you might be feeling sorry for Newt, up he pops. His effort is somewhat less glossy and is a little incoherent, but in essence is this: "Mitt Romney ... Liberal Governor ... increased taxes... Can we trust him... I'm Newt Gingrich and I approve this message". (Full transcript and ad here). I've seen this ad three times now. Four. It's playing again. Make it stop!
An hour in to this task and the following things are clear:An hour in to this task and the following things are clear:
• Gingrich is not being bullied out of the ad slots
• It's personal and negative. No mention of other candidates or Obama
• I will not survive another three hours of this
• hhgregg.com is offering a Samsung 43" HDTV for $397 in their sale. If you hurry
• Gingrich is not being bullied out of the ad slots
• It's personal and negative. No mention of other candidates or Obama
• I will not survive another three hours of this
• hhgregg.com is offering a Samsung 43" HDTV for $397 in their sale. If you hurry
9.56am: Once again this live blog has been scooped on the big yet made-up news, such as Michelle Obama's $50,000 lingerie spending spree. Now this is what we British journalists call real news, via Politico:9.56am: Once again this live blog has been scooped on the big yet made-up news, such as Michelle Obama's $50,000 lingerie spending spree. Now this is what we British journalists call real news, via Politico:
After several British news outlets reported that Michelle Obama spent $50,000 on lingerie at a luxury boutique in New York last year, a White House official told Politico the stories are false.After several British news outlets reported that Michelle Obama spent $50,000 on lingerie at a luxury boutique in New York last year, a White House official told Politico the stories are false.
The official, who declined to be identified by name, said it is not the first time British press have printed unconfirmed rumors.The official, who declined to be identified by name, said it is not the first time British press have printed unconfirmed rumors.
The Daily Mail reported that Michelle Obama spent the money during one trip to Agent Provocateur on Madison Avenue while she was visiting with the Queen of Qatar.The Daily Mail reported that Michelle Obama spent the money during one trip to Agent Provocateur on Madison Avenue while she was visiting with the Queen of Qatar.
The Telegraph carried the same story, saying the British retailer reported a 12 percent jump in sales, thanks to the first lady's purchases. It was also reported by The Sun.The Telegraph carried the same story, saying the British retailer reported a 12 percent jump in sales, thanks to the first lady's purchases. It was also reported by The Sun.
Technically, the Telegraph carried the story first and then the Daily Mail and Sun ripped it off, but let's not quibble about details such as whether or not it's true or just sort of not true.Technically, the Telegraph carried the story first and then the Daily Mail and Sun ripped it off, but let's not quibble about details such as whether or not it's true or just sort of not true.
9.30am: On the campaign trail today, both Mitt Romey and Newt Gingrich are all over Florida like a winter tan, while Rick Santorum's novel strategy to win in Florida includes campaigning in Minnesota and a return to town halls in Pizza Ranch restaurants.9.30am: On the campaign trail today, both Mitt Romey and Newt Gingrich are all over Florida like a winter tan, while Rick Santorum's novel strategy to win in Florida includes campaigning in Minnesota and a return to town halls in Pizza Ranch restaurants.
• Mitt Romney
8am: held a rally with supporters at Ring Power Lift Trucks in Jacksonville
2.15pm: Rally with supporters at Pioneer Park, Dunedin
6.10pm: Rally with supporters, Lake Sumter Landing, The Villages, Florida
• Mitt Romney
8am: held a rally with supporters at Ring Power Lift Trucks in Jacksonville
2.15pm: Rally with supporters at Pioneer Park, Dunedin
6.10pm: Rally with supporters, Lake Sumter Landing, The Villages, Florida
• Newt Gingrich
7.30am: held a rally with Michael Reagan at the Hyatt Regency Jacksonville Riverfront
10am: Rally with Michael Reagan, Pensacola Aviation Center
1pm: Rally with Michael Reagan. Tampa Jet Center
3pm: Rally with Michael Reagan, Page Field, Fort Meyers
6pm: "Crossing the Finish Line" rally, Renaissance Airport Hotel, Orlando
• Newt Gingrich
7.30am: held a rally with Michael Reagan at the Hyatt Regency Jacksonville Riverfront
10am: Rally with Michael Reagan, Pensacola Aviation Center
1pm: Rally with Michael Reagan. Tampa Jet Center
3pm: Rally with Michael Reagan, Page Field, Fort Meyers
6pm: "Crossing the Finish Line" rally, Renaissance Airport Hotel, Orlando
• Rick Santorum
Campaigning in Missouri and Minnesota (all times are local)
2:30pm CT: St Charles Community College, Cottleville, Missouri
7.30pm CT: Town hall meeting, Pizza Ranch, Luverne, Minnesota
• Rick Santorum
Campaigning in Missouri and Minnesota (all times are local)
2:30pm CT: St Charles Community College, Cottleville, Missouri
7.30pm CT: Town hall meeting, Pizza Ranch, Luverne, Minnesota
9am: Here's a round-up of the latest news from the campaign trail from Ryan Devereaux:9am: Here's a round-up of the latest news from the campaign trail from Ryan Devereaux:
• With voting in Florida's primary tomorrow, new polls suggest Newt Gingrich is the underdog. Four polls released Sunday – from NBC, Mason-Dixon, American Research Group and Rasmussen Reports – all give Mitt Romney a double-digit lead over the former speaker of the house. According to Nate Silver of the New York Times, Romney has a 97% chance of winning, compared to 3% for Gingrich. Meanwhile Rick Santorum and Ron Paul, who are separated by a 3.6% point spread with Santorum in the lead, have no chance of victory.• With voting in Florida's primary tomorrow, new polls suggest Newt Gingrich is the underdog. Four polls released Sunday – from NBC, Mason-Dixon, American Research Group and Rasmussen Reports – all give Mitt Romney a double-digit lead over the former speaker of the house. According to Nate Silver of the New York Times, Romney has a 97% chance of winning, compared to 3% for Gingrich. Meanwhile Rick Santorum and Ron Paul, who are separated by a 3.6% point spread with Santorum in the lead, have no chance of victory.
• Poor polling hasn't dampened Gingrich's spirit over the weekend, or at least not visibly. Speaking to reporters outside a Florida church on Saturday, Gingrich predicted Romney would fail to win the majority of Tuesday's votes and wouldn't be able to collect a majority of delegate votes by the time the Republican convention is held in August. "When you take all of the non-Romney votes, it's very likely that at the convention there will be a non-Romney majority — and maybe a very substantial one — and my job is to convert that into a pro-Gingrich majority," he said• Poor polling hasn't dampened Gingrich's spirit over the weekend, or at least not visibly. Speaking to reporters outside a Florida church on Saturday, Gingrich predicted Romney would fail to win the majority of Tuesday's votes and wouldn't be able to collect a majority of delegate votes by the time the Republican convention is held in August. "When you take all of the non-Romney votes, it's very likely that at the convention there will be a non-Romney majority — and maybe a very substantial one — and my job is to convert that into a pro-Gingrich majority," he said
• With the support of former Alaska governor Sarah Palin and an endorsement from pizza mogul Herman Cain, Gingrich has attempted to pitch himself as a populist conservative champion. He has described himself as "the legitimate heir to the Reagan movement," unlike Romey, who he has derided as "some liberal from Massachusetts"• With the support of former Alaska governor Sarah Palin and an endorsement from pizza mogul Herman Cain, Gingrich has attempted to pitch himself as a populist conservative champion. He has described himself as "the legitimate heir to the Reagan movement," unlike Romey, who he has derided as "some liberal from Massachusetts"
• Florida's airwaves are thick with attack ads, mostly from the Romney campaign, whose tactic is to remind voters of Gingrich's history in Washington. Speaking at a rally this weekend, the former Massachusetts governor reminded the crowd of Ginigrich's work with the financial mortgage giant Freddie Mac• Florida's airwaves are thick with attack ads, mostly from the Romney campaign, whose tactic is to remind voters of Gingrich's history in Washington. Speaking at a rally this weekend, the former Massachusetts governor reminded the crowd of Ginigrich's work with the financial mortgage giant Freddie Mac
• Texas congressman Ron Paul is facing increasing criticism following a Washington Post article published last week claiming that he was well-aware of the controversial newsletters that have dogged his campaign. According to sources quoted by the Post, he discussed inserting more extreme views into the newsletters to increase revenue. Paul has denied the claim• Texas congressman Ron Paul is facing increasing criticism following a Washington Post article published last week claiming that he was well-aware of the controversial newsletters that have dogged his campaign. According to sources quoted by the Post, he discussed inserting more extreme views into the newsletters to increase revenue. Paul has denied the claim
• Rick Santorum took time off from the campaign trail this weekend after his three-year-old daughter Bella suffered a medical emergency. Santorum is expected to return to campaigning today. He won't be taking his social conservative message to Florida, however. On Sunday the former Pennsylvania senator told reporters he was "heading out to the midwest," to focus on upcoming contests, and will hold his Florida election night party in Nevada• Rick Santorum took time off from the campaign trail this weekend after his three-year-old daughter Bella suffered a medical emergency. Santorum is expected to return to campaigning today. He won't be taking his social conservative message to Florida, however. On Sunday the former Pennsylvania senator told reporters he was "heading out to the midwest," to focus on upcoming contests, and will hold his Florida election night party in Nevada
8.30am: Mitt Romney appears to be in complete control of tomorrow's Republican primary, with the latest polls unanimous in declaring him the likely winner, some by a considerable margin over Newt Gingrich.8.30am: Mitt Romney appears to be in complete control of tomorrow's Republican primary, with the latest polls unanimous in declaring him the likely winner, some by a considerable margin over Newt Gingrich.
Riding a tide of money funding a media wave of attack advertising, Romney's campaign now wants a resounding victory to effectively end Gingrich's bid for the Republican nomination. But the scale of Romney's victory appears to also be setting off another swing in the GOP presidential see-saw in Gingrich's favour.Riding a tide of money funding a media wave of attack advertising, Romney's campaign now wants a resounding victory to effectively end Gingrich's bid for the Republican nomination. But the scale of Romney's victory appears to also be setting off another swing in the GOP presidential see-saw in Gingrich's favour.
The Guardian's team of reporters, on the ground and in cyberspace, will be covering the major events on the campaign trail in Florida, and we'll be carrying all the news right here.The Guardian's team of reporters, on the ground and in cyberspace, will be covering the major events on the campaign trail in Florida, and we'll be carrying all the news right here.