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Reality check: have the middle classes been squeezed out of university? | Reality check: have the middle classes been squeezed out of university? |
(40 minutes later) | |
1.38pm: The official figures on university application figures for 2012, released by the official monitoring body, Ucas, show an overall year-on-year drop of 8.7%. | 1.38pm: The official figures on university application figures for 2012, released by the official monitoring body, Ucas, show an overall year-on-year drop of 8.7%. |
Detail in the breakdown has been used to suggest that the fall is the latest example of the "squeezed middle" – and that applications from middle-class families have fallen the most. | Detail in the breakdown has been used to suggest that the fall is the latest example of the "squeezed middle" – and that applications from middle-class families have fallen the most. |
In an article headlined Middle class priced out of university by soaring tuition fees as applications fall by nearly 10%, the Daily Mail writes: | In an article headlined Middle class priced out of university by soaring tuition fees as applications fall by nearly 10%, the Daily Mail writes: |
According to the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service, the proportion of youngsters applying from the wealthiest fifth of the country dropped 2.5 percentage points – a fall of 3,000. | According to the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service, the proportion of youngsters applying from the wealthiest fifth of the country dropped 2.5 percentage points – a fall of 3,000. |
These families live in postcodes that are most likely to send children to university. Their likely average gross household income is around £80,000. | These families live in postcodes that are most likely to send children to university. Their likely average gross household income is around £80,000. |
The proportion of applicants from middle-earning families dropped by about one percentage point. | The proportion of applicants from middle-earning families dropped by about one percentage point. |
In contrast, the percentage of pupils applying from the poorest fifth of England dipped just 0.2 points – around 280 students. | In contrast, the percentage of pupils applying from the poorest fifth of England dipped just 0.2 points – around 280 students. |
These families live in postcodes least likely to send children to university, with a likely average income of £11,800-a-year. | These families live in postcodes least likely to send children to university, with a likely average income of £11,800-a-year. |
The Guardian's Datablog obtained the statistics behind these claims. At the first reading, the figures support the idea that middle-class families are hardest hit: applications from the richest 20% of household have dropped 2.5 percentage points; the next-richest group is down 2.1 points, while applications from the poorest families are down just 0.1 percentage points. | The Guardian's Datablog obtained the statistics behind these claims. At the first reading, the figures support the idea that middle-class families are hardest hit: applications from the richest 20% of household have dropped 2.5 percentage points; the next-richest group is down 2.1 points, while applications from the poorest families are down just 0.1 percentage points. |
The full figures are shown in this chart. | The full figures are shown in this chart. |
Given one of the rationales of the new £9,000 tuition fees is enabling universities to offer larger bursaries and other financial support for students from poorer backgrounds, these early figures seem encouraging. But there are some caveats. | Given one of the rationales of the new £9,000 tuition fees is enabling universities to offer larger bursaries and other financial support for students from poorer backgrounds, these early figures seem encouraging. But there are some caveats. |
The first is that far fewer students from the poorest backgrounds applied to university even before higher fees: more than half of the richest students apply, while fewer than one in five of the poorest do. | The first is that far fewer students from the poorest backgrounds applied to university even before higher fees: more than half of the richest students apply, while fewer than one in five of the poorest do. |
Even children from those families in the middle of the income curve are around 75% more likely than those at the bottom to apply to university. | Even children from those families in the middle of the income curve are around 75% more likely than those at the bottom to apply to university. |
It is possible that this relatively small "core" of students is less likely to be dissuaded from university application than the larger pool of wealthier students. | It is possible that this relatively small "core" of students is less likely to be dissuaded from university application than the larger pool of wealthier students. |
A more significant note is that Ucas has released this deprivation analysis only for 18-year-old students. This group now makes up fewer than half of all university applicants, and experienced a far smaller fall in applications than others did. | A more significant note is that Ucas has released this deprivation analysis only for 18-year-old students. This group now makes up fewer than half of all university applicants, and experienced a far smaller fall in applications than others did. |
Application from 18-year-olds fell 2.6% year on year, versus 12.6% for 19-year-olds and 11.4% for those aged 20. Applications from those aged 25 or over fell by over 10%. | Application from 18-year-olds fell 2.6% year on year, versus 12.6% for 19-year-olds and 11.4% for those aged 20. Applications from those aged 25 or over fell by over 10%. |
These groups were more able than those aged under 18 to apply to university earlier (by not taking a gap year, for example) in order to avoid tuition fees, so the drops may prove to be a one-year blip. But at present, we have no evidence on the demographics of the majority of those applying to university. | These groups were more able than those aged under 18 to apply to university earlier (by not taking a gap year, for example) in order to avoid tuition fees, so the drops may prove to be a one-year blip. But at present, we have no evidence on the demographics of the majority of those applying to university. |
We've asked Ucas if it can supply the deprivation figures for all age groups, to get a more conclusive verdict on whether the middle-classes have been hardest hit. We will update this post once we get a response, or information from any other analysts. | We've asked Ucas if it can supply the deprivation figures for all age groups, to get a more conclusive verdict on whether the middle-classes have been hardest hit. We will update this post once we get a response, or information from any other analysts. |
2.45pm: UCAS have got back to us with some explanation on how their measure of deprivation is calculated – and it suggests that the figures tell us less than it initially seemed. | |
The breakdown of applicant by demographic group has only been done for 18-year-olds, and is not available at present for older students (this will be published for successful applicants later in the year). | |
The reason for confining the analysis to this group was because "generally applicants in this category will not have had a previous opportunity to apply to higher education", according to a spokesman – in other words, this group was largely unable to apply early to university to avoid fees. | |
It is worth noting, however, that the relative attractiveness of university to school leavers may be affected by the high rate of youth unemployment and consequent difficulty in finding jobs. | |
UCAS' deprivation statistic is also more complex than many: the groups it cites, which most media outlets (fairly reasonably) approximated to income groups, are not sorted by wealth. | |
Instead, their analysis uses what's known as the POLAR2 methodology. | |
This sorts areas into five groups based on the proportion of young people in that region who enter higher education. | |
While this correlates with income or class, it obviously is not the same thing as grouping by wealth. | |
Some other groups who produce statistics on higher education use different methodologies. The Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), for example, uses a measure based on social class, using parents' occupation. | |
Unfortunately the results by this measure might take a while. The latest HESA data available dates from 2009/10 – with the 2011/12 figures not due until February 2013. | |
It would make a great deal of sense for middle classes to be the hardest hit by higher tuition fees: those from poorer backgrounds receive substantial bursaries, which don't completely disappear until the household income exceeds around £43,000. The richest are more able to soak up higher costs. | |
However, the short and unsatisfying answer on whether this is what's happened in reality, but right now we don't know. | |
Worse still, it could be a long while until we do. |
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