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| Florida primary - voting day live | Florida primary - voting day live |
| (40 minutes later) | |
| 3.52pm: Finally, it's ok to admit it. Matt Yglesias, the respected economics blogger for Slate, says what we've all been thinking. | |
| True confession: I don't know what makes a SuperPAC different from a regular PAC and sort of don't care. | |
| — Matt Yglesias (@mattyglesias) January 31, 2012 | |
| I think the answer is that there's no difference. Political action committees haven't changed – only the rules that govern how they are funded. | |
| 3.32pm: Let's go back to Celebration, perhaps not the most appropriate polling-day venue for a candidate who, by all accounts, is going down to a crushing defeat tonight – but there you go. Brian Braiker is there: | 3.32pm: Let's go back to Celebration, perhaps not the most appropriate polling-day venue for a candidate who, by all accounts, is going down to a crushing defeat tonight – but there you go. Brian Braiker is there: |
| In the center of a residential zone of Celebration, Florida, the town Disney literally built, voters trickle into a community center to cast their ballots. Kim Paterson emerges with an "I Voted" sticker on her gingham lapel. She cast her vote for Romney, she said, citing electability as her primary motive. "I think if we are going to beat Obama, we're going to have to have a candidate that is a little more middle of the road than Mr Gingrich." She then dramatically removed one of her navy pumps and waggled it at me. "I would vote for this shoe if it could beat Obama," she said, quoting Glenn Beck. | |
| Fifty yards away, Newt Gingrich's bus sat idle by the curb, a line of about 75 people waiting to pose for a picture of him. Steve Halloran and his white Maltese, Gizmo, is one of them. He will be voting for Newt after shaking the former speaker's hand. "He's the best guy to articulate the issues. Romney just doesn't feel quite as quick as Gingrich does," he said. The issue most important to Halloran is government overspending he said. "Newt really understands the issue." | Fifty yards away, Newt Gingrich's bus sat idle by the curb, a line of about 75 people waiting to pose for a picture of him. Steve Halloran and his white Maltese, Gizmo, is one of them. He will be voting for Newt after shaking the former speaker's hand. "He's the best guy to articulate the issues. Romney just doesn't feel quite as quick as Gingrich does," he said. The issue most important to Halloran is government overspending he said. "Newt really understands the issue." |
| Charles Spurlock does not buy it. Standing in flipflops on Celebration's green and well-manicured grass he has a Ron Paul sign slung around his neck. "Ron Paul is the only one who;ks not spewing bullshit," he said. "It's pretty obvious he's the only one who's good for mainstream America, given the way mainstream media is ignoring him." The issue driving Spurlock, he said, is war. "No more war for money, no more profiteering." | |
| Gingrich, who did not speak at the event, just greeted locals. He visibly agitated Spurlock, a local pizza delivery man. Spurlock, 24, booed when the candidate climbed back onto his bus. "Newt Gingrich is part of the problem, not part of the solution. It bothers me to see this guy in my town," he said. Clearly not everyone feels the same. "It's a weird town, obviously, but it's nice. It's safe. But there are a lot of dumb-ass people here." | |
| There's that famous Gingrich smile #flprimary twitter.com/AdamGabbatt/st… | There's that famous Gingrich smile #flprimary twitter.com/AdamGabbatt/st… |
| — Adam Gabbatt (@AdamGabbatt) January 31, 2012 | — Adam Gabbatt (@AdamGabbatt) January 31, 2012 |
| 3.11pm: More on the FEC filings today, and confirmation via Politico that Mitt Romney, his family and campaign friends helped former candidate Tim Pawlenty pay off his debts. Romney, his wife, brother and all five sons, his political director, campaign manager, and executives at Bain & Company and Bain Capital, all donated the maxiumum $2,500. In all, they raised $66,000 to bail out the former Minnesota governor's debts. | 3.11pm: More on the FEC filings today, and confirmation via Politico that Mitt Romney, his family and campaign friends helped former candidate Tim Pawlenty pay off his debts. Romney, his wife, brother and all five sons, his political director, campaign manager, and executives at Bain & Company and Bain Capital, all donated the maxiumum $2,500. In all, they raised $66,000 to bail out the former Minnesota governor's debts. |
| 2.55pm: The super pac set up by satirist Stephen Colbert – and briefly handed over to Jon Stewart when Colbert flirted with a presidential run – raised a rather tidy $1m since it was set up in July last year, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission. | 2.55pm: The super pac set up by satirist Stephen Colbert – and briefly handed over to Jon Stewart when Colbert flirted with a presidential run – raised a rather tidy $1m since it was set up in July last year, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission. |
| The filings also reveal that actor Bradley Whitford of The West Wing fame – and, less famously of Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip – was among the donors to Americans for a Better Tomorrow Tomorrow. | The filings also reveal that actor Bradley Whitford of The West Wing fame – and, less famously of Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip – was among the donors to Americans for a Better Tomorrow Tomorrow. |
| Shauna Polk, treasurer of ABTT, said in her accompanying note, quoted by Politico: | Shauna Polk, treasurer of ABTT, said in her accompanying note, quoted by Politico: |
| Stephen Colbert, President of ABTT, has asked that I quote him as saying, "Yeah! How you like me now, F.E.C? I'm rolling seven digits deep! I got 99 problems but a non-connected independent-expenditure only committee ain't one!" | Stephen Colbert, President of ABTT, has asked that I quote him as saying, "Yeah! How you like me now, F.E.C? I'm rolling seven digits deep! I got 99 problems but a non-connected independent-expenditure only committee ain't one!" |
| I would like it noted for the record that I advised Mr. Colbert against including that quote. | I would like it noted for the record that I advised Mr. Colbert against including that quote. |
| 2.41pm: While Mitt Romney is maintaining a pretty low profile at his campaign headquarters here in Tampa today, Newt Gingrich has been out on the streets – his latest stop is at Celebration, a planned community founded by Disney. The Guardian's Brian Braiker is there, and reports that Gingrich, astonishingly, is early. | 2.41pm: While Mitt Romney is maintaining a pretty low profile at his campaign headquarters here in Tampa today, Newt Gingrich has been out on the streets – his latest stop is at Celebration, a planned community founded by Disney. The Guardian's Brian Braiker is there, and reports that Gingrich, astonishingly, is early. |
| 2.35pm: In all the dispatches from our reporters at polling places around Florida today, one message comes through strongly: that voters are fed up with the barrage of negative ads that has been such a defining feature of the campaign here. | 2.35pm: In all the dispatches from our reporters at polling places around Florida today, one message comes through strongly: that voters are fed up with the barrage of negative ads that has been such a defining feature of the campaign here. |
| And there's more evidence of this from Karen McVeigh in Miami. | And there's more evidence of this from Karen McVeigh in Miami. |
| Negative ads have really hacked voters off in Florida. One guy I spoke to who was swithering between Romney/Gingrich switched to Paul | Negative ads have really hacked voters off in Florida. One guy I spoke to who was swithering between Romney/Gingrich switched to Paul |
| — karen mcveigh (@karenmcveigh1) January 31, 2012 | — karen mcveigh (@karenmcveigh1) January 31, 2012 |
| 2.01pm: Harry J Enten, our polling analyst, predicted a double-digit win for Romney yesterday, based on his rolling average of averages. His model puts Romney on 44.4% and Gingrich on 30%. | 2.01pm: Harry J Enten, our polling analyst, predicted a double-digit win for Romney yesterday, based on his rolling average of averages. His model puts Romney on 44.4% and Gingrich on 30%. |
| One of the polling aggregators Harry takes into account is FiveThirtyEight of the New York Times – its chief guru Nate Silver made his final prediction this morning, putting his money on Romney getting 44% and Gingrich 29%. | One of the polling aggregators Harry takes into account is FiveThirtyEight of the New York Times – its chief guru Nate Silver made his final prediction this morning, putting his money on Romney getting 44% and Gingrich 29%. |
| Silver says there's even a slim chance Romney may get an outright majority – which would give him significant bragging rights and may allow him to hold onto all Florida's delegates in case the state's winner-takes-all rules are challenged. | Silver says there's even a slim chance Romney may get an outright majority – which would give him significant bragging rights and may allow him to hold onto all Florida's delegates in case the state's winner-takes-all rules are challenged. |
| Florida, in defiance of Republican Party rules for states that jumped in line to hold early primaries, plans to award all its delegates to the winner of the primary, regardless of the candidate's vote share or margin of victory. It is possible that this preference will be challenged. However, other early-voting states award all of their delegates to the winner should that candidate reach 50 percent of the vote. If Mr. Romney meets that threshold, it may make it easier for him to retain all of Florida's delegates even in the event of a rules challenge. | Florida, in defiance of Republican Party rules for states that jumped in line to hold early primaries, plans to award all its delegates to the winner of the primary, regardless of the candidate's vote share or margin of victory. It is possible that this preference will be challenged. However, other early-voting states award all of their delegates to the winner should that candidate reach 50 percent of the vote. If Mr. Romney meets that threshold, it may make it easier for him to retain all of Florida's delegates even in the event of a rules challenge. |
| 1.34pm: Back to Adam Gabbatt, who's been speaking to voters in Holiday, Florida, and he's found a busier polling place. | 1.34pm: Back to Adam Gabbatt, who's been speaking to voters in Holiday, Florida, and he's found a busier polling place. |
| Pasco County's precinct 30, located at St Vincent DePaul catholic church, is thankfully busier than precinct 29, although hardly thronging. About eight people came and went as I loitered in the church's car park for 45 minutes just now. | Pasco County's precinct 30, located at St Vincent DePaul catholic church, is thankfully busier than precinct 29, although hardly thronging. About eight people came and went as I loitered in the church's car park for 45 minutes just now. |
| Mary Stahler was one of them, having just voted for Rick Santorum – a protest vote, of sorts. "I kind of really liked Romney," said Stahler, 77. "A lot. I always have." | Mary Stahler was one of them, having just voted for Rick Santorum – a protest vote, of sorts. "I kind of really liked Romney," said Stahler, 77. "A lot. I always have." |
| Stahler said she had decided against voting for the former Massachusetts governor because of the incessant attacks he and Gingrich had been launching at one another. "I voted Santorum because of the negative adverts they keep running against each other. I said: 'I'm not voting for either one of them'. | Stahler said she had decided against voting for the former Massachusetts governor because of the incessant attacks he and Gingrich had been launching at one another. "I voted Santorum because of the negative adverts they keep running against each other. I said: 'I'm not voting for either one of them'. |
| "The ads are horrible. You don't know who you can and can't trust, what to believe." | "The ads are horrible. You don't know who you can and can't trust, what to believe." |
| Sandy Hardy, 55, who has been unemployed for three and a half years, was undeterred by the ads, voting for Romney, although there was a catch: "I agree with him more than any other candidate. But if the want the truth, I wish Jeb Bush was running. I like the Bushes, I like their policies. This is a tough year." | Sandy Hardy, 55, who has been unemployed for three and a half years, was undeterred by the ads, voting for Romney, although there was a catch: "I agree with him more than any other candidate. But if the want the truth, I wish Jeb Bush was running. I like the Bushes, I like their policies. This is a tough year." |
| John Gleason, 60, voted Gingrich. "He has baggage, but who's gonna get the job done, who's the most conservative? Gingrich is." | John Gleason, 60, voted Gingrich. "He has baggage, but who's gonna get the job done, who's the most conservative? Gingrich is." |
| Gleason wasn't a fan of negative ads either, but luckily based his decision on the notoriously robust news reporting of Fox News. "As they say, 'fair and balanced', and I think they are," Gleason said. "I rely on them for all my news. And not just one particular show either." | Gleason wasn't a fan of negative ads either, but luckily based his decision on the notoriously robust news reporting of Fox News. "As they say, 'fair and balanced', and I think they are," Gleason said. "I rely on them for all my news. And not just one particular show either." |
| 1.28pm: In the comments below, Needsmorecow has been watching the video made by my Kat Keane Hogue, who talked to Florida voters about the issues that influenced their vote: | 1.28pm: In the comments below, Needsmorecow has been watching the video made by my Kat Keane Hogue, who talked to Florida voters about the issues that influenced their vote: |
| Watching the Guardian video of Florida voters, it's funny how many say their biggest election issue is the economy, and yet all will vote for one of the two representatives of the party that created the recession, and a party that advocates not doing anything about the economy. People want jobs but the Republican party has stated it's not in the business of jobs, so why are these people voting for it? | Watching the Guardian video of Florida voters, it's funny how many say their biggest election issue is the economy, and yet all will vote for one of the two representatives of the party that created the recession, and a party that advocates not doing anything about the economy. People want jobs but the Republican party has stated it's not in the business of jobs, so why are these people voting for it? |
| 1.18pm: Mitt Romney has been speaking to reporters at his state campaign headquarters here in Tampa. As we have been hearing from our correspondents talking to voters today, the welter of negative advertising is a real turnoff. At the press facility, Romney said he was "outgunned" in South Carolina and was forced to respond here in Florida. | 1.18pm: Mitt Romney has been speaking to reporters at his state campaign headquarters here in Tampa. As we have been hearing from our correspondents talking to voters today, the welter of negative advertising is a real turnoff. At the press facility, Romney said he was "outgunned" in South Carolina and was forced to respond here in Florida. |
| I needed to make sure that instead of being outgunned in terms of attacks, that I responded aggressively — and hopefully that will have served me well here. | I needed to make sure that instead of being outgunned in terms of attacks, that I responded aggressively — and hopefully that will have served me well here. |
| (Source: Buzzfeed.) | (Source: Buzzfeed.) |
| But some of the campaign journalists don't buy this line. | But some of the campaign journalists don't buy this line. |
| I don't get Romney saying attacks went unanswered in SC.His campaign savaged Newt in series of conf calls there. | I don't get Romney saying attacks went unanswered in SC.His campaign savaged Newt in series of conf calls there. |
| — jmartpolitico (@jmartpolitico) January 31, 2012 | — jmartpolitico (@jmartpolitico) January 31, 2012 |
| 1.12pm: Remember Rick Santorum? Florida has become such a two-horse race that's easy to forget, I know. Anyway, he's back on the campaign trail today – but not in Florida. | 1.12pm: Remember Rick Santorum? Florida has become such a two-horse race that's easy to forget, I know. Anyway, he's back on the campaign trail today – but not in Florida. |
| He left the state after the debate here last Thursday and has not been back. He initially planned to return on Sunday, but his daughter's illness kept him away. | He left the state after the debate here last Thursday and has not been back. He initially planned to return on Sunday, but his daughter's illness kept him away. |
| Today, he is in Colorado, where the Republican caucus takes place on February 7. He sent an email to supporters today begging for cash: the Federal Election Commission filling deadline for January is tonight, and he wants to demostrate "strong grassroots support" for this month. He says he's back in "full campaign mode". | Today, he is in Colorado, where the Republican caucus takes place on February 7. He sent an email to supporters today begging for cash: the Federal Election Commission filling deadline for January is tonight, and he wants to demostrate "strong grassroots support" for this month. He says he's back in "full campaign mode". |
| According to reporters following Santorum, he claims to have raised $4m since Iowa. But given the two frontrunnners have spent more than $20m on splatting each other with attack ads in Florida alone, you can see the size of the mountain Santorum has to climb. | According to reporters following Santorum, he claims to have raised $4m since Iowa. But given the two frontrunnners have spent more than $20m on splatting each other with attack ads in Florida alone, you can see the size of the mountain Santorum has to climb. |
| 12.57pm: Why did Mitt Romeny choose The Villages, a sprawling luxury retirement village north of Tampa for his eve-of-poll rally last night? I'm sure it has nothing to do with this. | 12.57pm: Why did Mitt Romeny choose The Villages, a sprawling luxury retirement village north of Tampa for his eve-of-poll rally last night? I'm sure it has nothing to do with this. |
| Owner and corp. parent of The Villages, Fl. community Romney visited Monday, are major donors to his super PAC. bit.ly/yFpgCQ | Owner and corp. parent of The Villages, Fl. community Romney visited Monday, are major donors to his super PAC. bit.ly/yFpgCQ |
| — Nick Confessore (@nickconfessore) January 31, 2012 | — Nick Confessore (@nickconfessore) January 31, 2012 |
| This is Matt Wells taking over from Richard Adams, who'll be back later to live blog the resutls here in Florida. | This is Matt Wells taking over from Richard Adams, who'll be back later to live blog the resutls here in Florida. |
| 12.29pm: The Guardian's correspondents in Florida have been asking Republican voters what impact the barrage of negative ads had on their decision to vote – and as you can see in the responses below, it had an impact. | 12.29pm: The Guardian's correspondents in Florida have been asking Republican voters what impact the barrage of negative ads had on their decision to vote – and as you can see in the responses below, it had an impact. |
| Stat of the day: 92 percent of political TV ads aired in Florida over the last week were negative (via CMAG) | Stat of the day: 92 percent of political TV ads aired in Florida over the last week were negative (via CMAG) |
| And here's why: the campaigns on all sides were almost entirely negative. | And here's why: the campaigns on all sides were almost entirely negative. |
| 12.10pm: More from the polling booths of Miami Beach, as Chris McGreal talks to some colourful characters – which is putting it mildly – having voted in the Republican primary: | 12.10pm: More from the polling booths of Miami Beach, as Chris McGreal talks to some colourful characters – which is putting it mildly – having voted in the Republican primary: |
| Next into the polling station is George Balsamo. He's in a feisty mood. So how will he be voting? "Anybody who's not a fucking Cuban," he said. | Next into the polling station is George Balsamo. He's in a feisty mood. So how will he be voting? "Anybody who's not a fucking Cuban," he said. |
| Since none of the candidates is a Cuban, who will it be? "Gingrich." | Since none of the candidates is a Cuban, who will it be? "Gingrich." |
| Why? "Because he's not a fucking Cuban." | Why? "Because he's not a fucking Cuban." |
| Standing close by is a security guard, Andy, who happens to be Cuban. He came to Florida as a young man 40 years ago. He's a registered Republican and the persistent claims by Romney and Gingrich that Obama is trying to impose "European-style socialism" on America has put the wind up Andy. He says the most important thing is to stop America going communist, and that's where Obama's taking it. | Standing close by is a security guard, Andy, who happens to be Cuban. He came to Florida as a young man 40 years ago. He's a registered Republican and the persistent claims by Romney and Gingrich that Obama is trying to impose "European-style socialism" on America has put the wind up Andy. He says the most important thing is to stop America going communist, and that's where Obama's taking it. |
| "They say this country is going to be socialist like Europe. Socialism is communism. We need to keep this country free," he said. "If people don't wake up they will be living like slaves. Obama is a socialist. He's a very great danger. In three years he's done nothing. He broke everything." | "They say this country is going to be socialist like Europe. Socialism is communism. We need to keep this country free," he said. "If people don't wake up they will be living like slaves. Obama is a socialist. He's a very great danger. In three years he's done nothing. He broke everything." |
| Andy doesn't want to say how he'll vote but gives a smile as he mentions that he's with the one who will win. | Andy doesn't want to say how he'll vote but gives a smile as he mentions that he's with the one who will win. |
| An Italian immigrant turned US citizen called Rocco declined to say how he voted but it was neither for Romney nor Gingrich. | An Italian immigrant turned US citizen called Rocco declined to say how he voted but it was neither for Romney nor Gingrich. |
| "I am against Gingrich because of his behaviour in the past, when he was in Congress," he said. | "I am against Gingrich because of his behaviour in the past, when he was in Congress," he said. |
| Rocco said that the negative advertising had influenced his view of Gingrich. "We were aware of the ethics but we did not know all the detail. When we saw, we decided we cannot vote for him," he said. | Rocco said that the negative advertising had influenced his view of Gingrich. "We were aware of the ethics but we did not know all the detail. When we saw, we decided we cannot vote for him," he said. |
| Rocco rejected Romney because he is a Mormon, or as Rocco put it: "He's a religious nut". | Rocco rejected Romney because he is a Mormon, or as Rocco put it: "He's a religious nut". |
| "Both of them are corrupted. They can't beat Obama. That's the problem. All the negative ads have damaged the Republicans," he said. | "Both of them are corrupted. They can't beat Obama. That's the problem. All the negative ads have damaged the Republicans," he said. |
| 11.45am: The Associated Press wonders what happens to Newt Gingrich's campaign in the event of a thrashing in Florida: | 11.45am: The Associated Press wonders what happens to Newt Gingrich's campaign in the event of a thrashing in Florida: |
| The schedule benefits a candidate, like Romney, with deep pockets and a sophisticated ground game and able to compete on multiple fronts at once. Gingrich, who failed to even get on the ballot in his home state of Virginia for the March 6 Super Tuesday primary, is playing catch-up. | The schedule benefits a candidate, like Romney, with deep pockets and a sophisticated ground game and able to compete on multiple fronts at once. Gingrich, who failed to even get on the ballot in his home state of Virginia for the March 6 Super Tuesday primary, is playing catch-up. |
| "We're behind the eight-ball," acknowledged George Harris, a Las Vegas restaurant owner who serves as a national finance chair for Gingrich and is helping his efforts in Nevada. | "We're behind the eight-ball," acknowledged George Harris, a Las Vegas restaurant owner who serves as a national finance chair for Gingrich and is helping his efforts in Nevada. |
| 11.35am: The Guardian's Chris McGreal is out talking to people voting in the Republican primary in Miami, some of whom are guarded about talking to the media: | 11.35am: The Guardian's Chris McGreal is out talking to people voting in the Republican primary in Miami, some of whom are guarded about talking to the media: |
| A man who will only give his name as Joe wants to know if the Guardian is owned by Rupert Murdoch. He seems to be confused. "I don't like Murdoch. I hear his papers say bad things about Republicans," he said. | A man who will only give his name as Joe wants to know if the Guardian is owned by Rupert Murdoch. He seems to be confused. "I don't like Murdoch. I hear his papers say bad things about Republicans," he said. |
| Joe is voting for Romney. "I want to get Obama out. I'm looking to the person who's most electable. That's Romney," he said. | Joe is voting for Romney. "I want to get Obama out. I'm looking to the person who's most electable. That's Romney," he said. |
| Joe said he'd seen a lot of the negative advertising but it hadn't made any difference to his vote. | Joe said he'd seen a lot of the negative advertising but it hadn't made any difference to his vote. |
| "I went to some rallies at the weekend. I was contemplating Ron Paul. He's very good on the Fed," he said. "But Romney's more of a credible candidate. Gingrich would not be able to co-opt the Democratic voters we need to win." | "I went to some rallies at the weekend. I was contemplating Ron Paul. He's very good on the Fed," he said. "But Romney's more of a credible candidate. Gingrich would not be able to co-opt the Democratic voters we need to win." |
| 11.23am: The limp turnout appears to be also the case in Miami-Dade, Florida's biggest county, where the Guardian's Chris McGreal is talking to voters and asking their reaction to the torrent of attack ads throughout the campaign: | 11.23am: The limp turnout appears to be also the case in Miami-Dade, Florida's biggest county, where the Guardian's Chris McGreal is talking to voters and asking their reaction to the torrent of attack ads throughout the campaign: |
| There's a slow start to voting in Miami Beach. Voters are trickling in to city hall and other ballot stations across the area. | There's a slow start to voting in Miami Beach. Voters are trickling in to city hall and other ballot stations across the area. |
| Jibil Taslimi is voting for Romney. He was in two minds until recently and said that the negative advertising did make a difference. "I've seen a lot of them. The things they said about Gingrich, I didn't know all of that. The ethics. It made me think," he said. | Jibil Taslimi is voting for Romney. He was in two minds until recently and said that the negative advertising did make a difference. "I've seen a lot of them. The things they said about Gingrich, I didn't know all of that. The ethics. It made me think," he said. |
| But he already had a pretty negative view of Gingrich: "Gingrich will not win because of his infidelities, his instability and the grandiosity of his ideas. He's not a good representative of America. He got married three times. He's wants a colony on the moon. We need someone more realistic. | But he already had a pretty negative view of Gingrich: "Gingrich will not win because of his infidelities, his instability and the grandiosity of his ideas. He's not a good representative of America. He got married three times. He's wants a colony on the moon. We need someone more realistic. |
| "The last debate was very very helpful for me to make a decision. Gingrich appeared very weak. I thought about it and thought Romney is a good businessman. That's what we need." | "The last debate was very very helpful for me to make a decision. Gingrich appeared very weak. I thought about it and thought Romney is a good businessman. That's what we need." |
| 11am: Meanwhile, my colleague Adam Gabbatt is in the delightfully named town of Holiday, some 30 miles north-west of Tampa, where he is also seeing little signs of voter enthusiasm: | 11am: Meanwhile, my colleague Adam Gabbatt is in the delightfully named town of Holiday, some 30 miles north-west of Tampa, where he is also seeing little signs of voter enthusiasm: |
| Precinct 29, Pasco County, is a quiet place. By 10.30am the precinct - specifically located within Buena Vista community centre, on a trailer park in the small town of Holiday - had seen 12 voters through its doors, according to the precinct supervisor, who gave his name as simply Bruce. | Precinct 29, Pasco County, is a quiet place. By 10.30am the precinct - specifically located within Buena Vista community centre, on a trailer park in the small town of Holiday - had seen 12 voters through its doors, according to the precinct supervisor, who gave his name as simply Bruce. |
| "But it's only early, we might get another 30 or 40, he said. This reporter waited for 45 minutes and saw one voter. | "But it's only early, we might get another 30 or 40, he said. This reporter waited for 45 minutes and saw one voter. |
| Lucky number 13 was Robert Dickinson, 64, who lives just round the corner. Dickinson grew up in Michigan, at a time when George Romney, Mitt's father, was governor. "George was phenomenal," Dickinson said. | Lucky number 13 was Robert Dickinson, 64, who lives just round the corner. Dickinson grew up in Michigan, at a time when George Romney, Mitt's father, was governor. "George was phenomenal," Dickinson said. |
| One more vote in the bag for Mitt then? "Oh no. Where his son came from I have no idea. He is no example of his father. Mitt has been there, done that, screwed it up." | One more vote in the bag for Mitt then? "Oh no. Where his son came from I have no idea. He is no example of his father. Mitt has been there, done that, screwed it up." |
| "There's only one person that's anywhere near," Dickinson said. "Ron Paul. I like him. I think he seems honest, with no ties. He speaks not to the people, but like the people." | "There's only one person that's anywhere near," Dickinson said. "Ron Paul. I like him. I think he seems honest, with no ties. He speaks not to the people, but like the people." |
| Dickinson had made up his mind after watching "all the debates" and reading newspapers, albeit taking their content "with a grain of salt". | Dickinson had made up his mind after watching "all the debates" and reading newspapers, albeit taking their content "with a grain of salt". |
| He said he hadn't been swayed by television advertising, although admitted they were difficult to escape: "Other than mute, you can't avoid them." | He said he hadn't been swayed by television advertising, although admitted they were difficult to escape: "Other than mute, you can't avoid them." |
| Despite that, there was one advert which had caught his eye: "I love the one they have of Romney going bald and turning into our governor. That tickles me." | Despite that, there was one advert which had caught his eye: "I love the one they have of Romney going bald and turning into our governor. That tickles me." |
| Dickinson wasn't sure who the ad was by, although thought it might have been Gingrich. Either way, it doesn't seem to have influenced him much. | Dickinson wasn't sure who the ad was by, although thought it might have been Gingrich. Either way, it doesn't seem to have influenced him much. |
| 10.35am: No signs of a big turn-out today in the suburbs of Miami, according to my colleague Karen McVeigh, who is outside a polling venue: | 10.35am: No signs of a big turn-out today in the suburbs of Miami, according to my colleague Karen McVeigh, who is outside a polling venue: |
| There's been a non-stampede of about a voter or two an hour at the two precincts I've been to so far in Aventura, outside of Miami. | There's been a non-stampede of about a voter or two an hour at the two precincts I've been to so far in Aventura, outside of Miami. |
| Plaza del Prado is a massive condominium block, mostly retirees. They're going to put out an announcement to try to drum up some people to get off their couches and come down and vote. According to one of the election officials it will be like this everywhere. I expect so as 600,000 people had already cast their vote by the time the polls officially opened at 7am. | Plaza del Prado is a massive condominium block, mostly retirees. They're going to put out an announcement to try to drum up some people to get off their couches and come down and vote. According to one of the election officials it will be like this everywhere. I expect so as 600,000 people had already cast their vote by the time the polls officially opened at 7am. |
| At the next precinct, Point East, another condo block, I talked to Betty Mendoza, 73, originally from Columbia, who has lived here 17 years. She is unhappy about the attack ads. | At the next precinct, Point East, another condo block, I talked to Betty Mendoza, 73, originally from Columbia, who has lived here 17 years. She is unhappy about the attack ads. |
| "It's sad the campaign is so negative." said Mendoza. She said she was "a little confused" by the campaign ads for the candidates and she tried to ignore them. She would have liked to know more instead about their policies. "I just want Obama out. My daughter my sister have lost their homes and there are no jobs. I am watching to see who is talking most about jobs. I voted from Romney because I think he looks more decisive. | "It's sad the campaign is so negative." said Mendoza. She said she was "a little confused" by the campaign ads for the candidates and she tried to ignore them. She would have liked to know more instead about their policies. "I just want Obama out. My daughter my sister have lost their homes and there are no jobs. I am watching to see who is talking most about jobs. I voted from Romney because I think he looks more decisive. |
| 10.11am: Last night Mitt Romney really let his hair down and did some singing. And no it wasn't Abba's Money, Money, Money – it was America the Beautiful. | 10.11am: Last night Mitt Romney really let his hair down and did some singing. And no it wasn't Abba's Money, Money, Money – it was America the Beautiful. |
| Here's Piers Morgan taking the mickey on CNN last night and then being haranged by Suzy Welch, who manages to slip in a bit of dog whistling: "Think about what he's singing," says Welch. "There's going to be a bunch of Americans, maybe not the Americans on the coast, who are going to say that's what my dad sounds like when he sings." Mmm. | Here's Piers Morgan taking the mickey on CNN last night and then being haranged by Suzy Welch, who manages to slip in a bit of dog whistling: "Think about what he's singing," says Welch. "There's going to be a bunch of Americans, maybe not the Americans on the coast, who are going to say that's what my dad sounds like when he sings." Mmm. |
| My colleague Janine Gibson was there to hear Mitt sing last night, and says Romney sounded like an American Idol contestant who didn't make it to Boot Camp. | My colleague Janine Gibson was there to hear Mitt sing last night, and says Romney sounded like an American Idol contestant who didn't make it to Boot Camp. |
| 9.49am: Here's a brief news summary from the Guardian's Ryan Devereaux: | 9.49am: Here's a brief news summary from the Guardian's Ryan Devereaux: |
| • Analysts say the question is not whether Romney will win, but by how much. If he wins by a margin of over 12 points, Gingrich's landslide victory in South Carolina will effectively be negated. If the margin is narrower, Gingrich will be able argue that he was beaten by Romney's well-funded campaign machine, not on the issues that matter to conservative voters. | • Analysts say the question is not whether Romney will win, but by how much. If he wins by a margin of over 12 points, Gingrich's landslide victory in South Carolina will effectively be negated. If the margin is narrower, Gingrich will be able argue that he was beaten by Romney's well-funded campaign machine, not on the issues that matter to conservative voters. |
| • Rick Santorum has largely sat out of the contest in Florida. Santorum's 3 year-old daughter, Bella, who suffers from a rare genetic disorder, was stricken with pneumonia last weekend. Santorum took time off from the campaign trail to be with his family, but has promised to continue in the race. | • Rick Santorum has largely sat out of the contest in Florida. Santorum's 3 year-old daughter, Bella, who suffers from a rare genetic disorder, was stricken with pneumonia last weekend. Santorum took time off from the campaign trail to be with his family, but has promised to continue in the race. |
| • Florida's primary will be followed by a caucus in Nevada on Saturday, and on Tuesday 7 Fenruary by caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota and a primary in Missouri. There follows a 11-day break in the action until a debte scheduled for 22 February, followed by primaries on 28 February in Arizona and Michigan. Newt Gingrich has vowed to fight on, whatever the result in Florida. | • Florida's primary will be followed by a caucus in Nevada on Saturday, and on Tuesday 7 Fenruary by caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota and a primary in Missouri. There follows a 11-day break in the action until a debte scheduled for 22 February, followed by primaries on 28 February in Arizona and Michigan. Newt Gingrich has vowed to fight on, whatever the result in Florida. |
| 9.32am: So what are the candidates up to today? | 9.32am: So what are the candidates up to today? |
| Newt Gingrich kicked the day off with an 8.30am visit to a polling precinct at the First Baptist Church of Windermere in Orlando. For the rest of the day: | Newt Gingrich kicked the day off with an 8.30am visit to a polling precinct at the First Baptist Church of Windermere in Orlando. For the rest of the day: |
| 11.15am: visits Newt 2012 Polk County HQ, Lakeland 12.30pm: visits Fred's Southern Kitchen, Plant City 3pm: visits polling precinct at Celebration Heritage Hall, at the mildly creepy village of Celebration 8pm: holds Florida primary night party at the Rosen Centre Hotel in Orlando. Doors open to public at 6.30pm ET if you want to pop along | 11.15am: visits Newt 2012 Polk County HQ, Lakeland 12.30pm: visits Fred's Southern Kitchen, Plant City 3pm: visits polling precinct at Celebration Heritage Hall, at the mildly creepy village of Celebration 8pm: holds Florida primary night party at the Rosen Centre Hotel in Orlando. Doors open to public at 6.30pm ET if you want to pop along |
| Mitt Romney is having a lie-in today after an all-night session playing Modern Warfare 3 and has cancelled a scheduled event in Tampa this morning. But his big party time is at the Tampa Convention Center, and we'll be hanging out there later to soak up the Mittmentum. | Mitt Romney is having a lie-in today after an all-night session playing Modern Warfare 3 and has cancelled a scheduled event in Tampa this morning. But his big party time is at the Tampa Convention Center, and we'll be hanging out there later to soak up the Mittmentum. |
| Meanwhile, both Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are holding their Florida primary parties in that well known Florida hotspot of Las Vegas, Nevada. Ron Paul is holding his party at the Green Valley Ranch Casino, which to be honest sounds more fun than the Tampa Convention Centre. | Meanwhile, both Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are holding their Florida primary parties in that well known Florida hotspot of Las Vegas, Nevada. Ron Paul is holding his party at the Green Valley Ranch Casino, which to be honest sounds more fun than the Tampa Convention Centre. |
| 9.13am: If you haven't read it already, then enjoy my colleague Ed Pilkington's profile of Mitt Romney on the campaign trail in Florida: | 9.13am: If you haven't read it already, then enjoy my colleague Ed Pilkington's profile of Mitt Romney on the campaign trail in Florida: |
| Romney's campaigning style is not as dire as it was four years ago, when he had all the panache of a donkey. This time round, his stump speech is still scripted to death, to the extent that once you have heard him deliver it a few times you can mouth along to it like a pop song. But he is loosened up, discarding tie and suit for jeans and gingham and with his wife, Ann, on his arm. Nonetheless, a nagging disconnect remains. | Romney's campaigning style is not as dire as it was four years ago, when he had all the panache of a donkey. This time round, his stump speech is still scripted to death, to the extent that once you have heard him deliver it a few times you can mouth along to it like a pop song. But he is loosened up, discarding tie and suit for jeans and gingham and with his wife, Ann, on his arm. Nonetheless, a nagging disconnect remains. |
| Ed also tackles the crucial "sacred Mormon underwear" question, via Romney's friend and former US senator Bob Bennett: | Ed also tackles the crucial "sacred Mormon underwear" question, via Romney's friend and former US senator Bob Bennett: |
| I have to put to him the question about Romney that everyone wants to ask but few have the guts to do so. Of course he wears Mormon underpants every day, Bennett replies – they are a symbol of the covenants each member takes inside the temple. | I have to put to him the question about Romney that everyone wants to ask but few have the guts to do so. Of course he wears Mormon underpants every day, Bennett replies – they are a symbol of the covenants each member takes inside the temple. |
| 9am: While we are waiting for the voters to do the actual voting, why not try your hand at political punditry by entering our predict the Florida primary result competition. | 9am: While we are waiting for the voters to do the actual voting, why not try your hand at political punditry by entering our predict the Florida primary result competition. |
| It's easy – just rank the four candidates and your best guess of the winner's share of the vote. To help you decide, here's some analysis from Cif America polling analyst Harry Enten – and here are some more forecasts: | It's easy – just rank the four candidates and your best guess of the winner's share of the vote. To help you decide, here's some analysis from Cif America polling analyst Harry Enten – and here are some more forecasts: |
| • The RealClearPolitics polling average has Mitt Romney on 42%, Newt Gingrich on 29%, Rick Santorum on 13% and Ron Paul on 10% | • The RealClearPolitics polling average has Mitt Romney on 42%, Newt Gingrich on 29%, Rick Santorum on 13% and Ron Paul on 10% |
| • The Huffington Post's Mark Blumenthal has Romney on 42%, Gingrich on 28%, Santorum on 12% and Ron Paul on 11% | • The Huffington Post's Mark Blumenthal has Romney on 42%, Gingrich on 28%, Santorum on 12% and Ron Paul on 11% |
| • The New York Times's 538 blog has Romney on 44%, Gingrich on 29%, Santorum on 12% and Ron Paul on 11% | • The New York Times's 538 blog has Romney on 44%, Gingrich on 29%, Santorum on 12% and Ron Paul on 11% |
| So go ahead, it's fun and there are prizes! | So go ahead, it's fun and there are prizes! |
| 8.30am: Polls are now open and voting is underway in Florida's Republican primary, the final day of a bruising campaign that has seen an avalanche of attack advertising and both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich accusing each other of dishonesty. | 8.30am: Polls are now open and voting is underway in Florida's Republican primary, the final day of a bruising campaign that has seen an avalanche of attack advertising and both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich accusing each other of dishonesty. |
| Romney's campaign and supporters have spent $16m on television ads, while Gingrich and his side has managed just $4m in response. To compensate, Gingrich spent yesterday on a statewide-tour, lambasting Romney's record. | Romney's campaign and supporters have spent $16m on television ads, while Gingrich and his side has managed just $4m in response. To compensate, Gingrich spent yesterday on a statewide-tour, lambasting Romney's record. |
| But the latest polls are unanimous: Romney enjoys leads ranging from high single digits to blow-out sized margins. The only question, it seems, is the final gap between the two men. A huge win by Romney could imperil Gingrich's candidacy if voters and donors abandon him | But the latest polls are unanimous: Romney enjoys leads ranging from high single digits to blow-out sized margins. The only question, it seems, is the final gap between the two men. A huge win by Romney could imperil Gingrich's candidacy if voters and donors abandon him |
| There's also a race for the bronze medal between Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, who are both on the ballot but have spent little time campaigning in the Sunshine State, prefering to concentrate on the up-coming caucuses being held in states such as Nevada and Minnesota in February. | There's also a race for the bronze medal between Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, who are both on the ballot but have spent little time campaigning in the Sunshine State, prefering to concentrate on the up-coming caucuses being held in states such as Nevada and Minnesota in February. |
| Guardian correspondents are out in the field, talking to voters at polling stations, and we'll be watching all the news as we wait for polls to close at 8pm ET. | Guardian correspondents are out in the field, talking to voters at polling stations, and we'll be watching all the news as we wait for polls to close at 8pm ET. |