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| Politics live blog: Monday 6 February 2012 | Politics live blog: Monday 6 February 2012 |
| (40 minutes later) | |
| 9.58am: Thurrock is going to get a referendum on whether or not there should be a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union. Last month the People's Pledge, the group campaigning for an in/out poll, announced that they would be having postal ballots in individual constituencies and today they've revealed that they are going to start in Thurrock, on Thursday 5 April. Every adult in the constituency will get a ballot paper through the post. It's just a vote on whether or not there should be a referendum and, since people tend to answer yes to questions like that and since no one is likely to campaign against, the result it easy to predict. But the organisers think that if they get more than 75% voting yes, on a turnout of 20% or more, that will count as a success and that pressure for a nationwide referendum will increase. | |
| 9.19am: Kenneth Clarke, the justice secretary, is today publishing plans to give divorced and separated fathers stronger rights to see their children. Here's what the Press Association have filed about the changes. | 9.19am: Kenneth Clarke, the justice secretary, is today publishing plans to give divorced and separated fathers stronger rights to see their children. Here's what the Press Association have filed about the changes. |
Proposals to give stronger rights for divorced and separated fathers to see their children will be published by Justice Secretary Ken Clarke today. Grandparents are also expected to see their influence boosted in the wake of a split as part of reforms of the family justice system. The key change in the process is the introduction of rules making clearer that it is vital youngsters enjoyed "an ongoing relationship with both parents". Ministers have signalled that they will not offer the guarantee of equal access demanded by some fathers' rights groups but want to ensure no loving parent is "pushed out". The change forms part of the government's response to a review led by former Whitehall mandarin David Norgrove - but is directly at odds with one of his main findings. Norgrove voiced his "regret" last week that a legal right would be included despite his report warning it could cause "confusion, misinterpretation and false expectations". Similar changes in Australia led to delays in resolving custody disputes, he cautioned. In a bid to prevent custody cases reaching the courts in the first place, the overnment will promise an extra £10 million for mediation services. But where parents do end up going to law, it will examine ways to amend legislation to ensure no parent is excluded unless they pose a safety or welfare risk. A working group is expected to be formed to examine potential changes to the Children's Act 1989 to embed the new rights. | Proposals to give stronger rights for divorced and separated fathers to see their children will be published by Justice Secretary Ken Clarke today. Grandparents are also expected to see their influence boosted in the wake of a split as part of reforms of the family justice system. The key change in the process is the introduction of rules making clearer that it is vital youngsters enjoyed "an ongoing relationship with both parents". Ministers have signalled that they will not offer the guarantee of equal access demanded by some fathers' rights groups but want to ensure no loving parent is "pushed out". The change forms part of the government's response to a review led by former Whitehall mandarin David Norgrove - but is directly at odds with one of his main findings. Norgrove voiced his "regret" last week that a legal right would be included despite his report warning it could cause "confusion, misinterpretation and false expectations". Similar changes in Australia led to delays in resolving custody disputes, he cautioned. In a bid to prevent custody cases reaching the courts in the first place, the overnment will promise an extra £10 million for mediation services. But where parents do end up going to law, it will examine ways to amend legislation to ensure no parent is excluded unless they pose a safety or welfare risk. A working group is expected to be formed to examine potential changes to the Children's Act 1989 to embed the new rights. |
| And here's how Clarke explained on the Today programme his decision to ignore the Norgrove recommendation about not enshrining the new rights in law. | And here's how Clarke explained on the Today programme his decision to ignore the Norgrove recommendation about not enshrining the new rights in law. |
| We are stating what I think is the view of most people which is that both parents have responsibilities and rights towards their children and the children are entitled to try and maintain contact with both parents if it's at all possible. But what we are doing is going to state that principle in the law, because there are far too many people who think it's not being applied - although I do think the courts do apply it and try to apply it in most cases. | We are stating what I think is the view of most people which is that both parents have responsibilities and rights towards their children and the children are entitled to try and maintain contact with both parents if it's at all possible. But what we are doing is going to state that principle in the law, because there are far too many people who think it's not being applied - although I do think the courts do apply it and try to apply it in most cases. |
| But we are also going to have to draft what we do to avoid all the undoubted dangers in Australia which caused David Norgrove and his colleagues to be hesitant. | But we are also going to have to draft what we do to avoid all the undoubted dangers in Australia which caused David Norgrove and his colleagues to be hesitant. |
| 8.57am: David Miliband's Commission on Youth Unemployment claims that youth unemployment will cost the Treasury £28bn over the next decade. Here's an extract from the report (pdf). | 8.57am: David Miliband's Commission on Youth Unemployment claims that youth unemployment will cost the Treasury £28bn over the next decade. Here's an extract from the report (pdf). |
| The human misery of youth unemployment is also a time-bomb under the nation's finances. We have done new research on the cash costs of youth unemployment. Even we were surprised. At its current rates, in 2012 youth unemployment will cost the exchequer £4.8 billion (more than the budget for further education for 16- to- 19-year-olds in England) and cost the economy £10.7 billion in lost output. But the costs are not just temporary. The scarring effects of youth unemployment at its current levels will ratchet up further future costs of £2.9 billion per year for the exchequer (equivalent to the entire annual budget for Jobcentre Plus) and £6.3 billion p.a. for the economy in lost output. The net present value of the cost to the Treasury, even looking only a decade ahead, is approximately £28 billion. | The human misery of youth unemployment is also a time-bomb under the nation's finances. We have done new research on the cash costs of youth unemployment. Even we were surprised. At its current rates, in 2012 youth unemployment will cost the exchequer £4.8 billion (more than the budget for further education for 16- to- 19-year-olds in England) and cost the economy £10.7 billion in lost output. But the costs are not just temporary. The scarring effects of youth unemployment at its current levels will ratchet up further future costs of £2.9 billion per year for the exchequer (equivalent to the entire annual budget for Jobcentre Plus) and £6.3 billion p.a. for the economy in lost output. The net present value of the cost to the Treasury, even looking only a decade ahead, is approximately £28 billion. |
The report also contains a powerful section saying that claims that immigration, the benefits system or the minimum wage are driving up youth unemployment are "largely red herrings". | The report also contains a powerful section saying that claims that immigration, the benefits system or the minimum wage are driving up youth unemployment are "largely red herrings". |
In the main, the benefit system does not disincentivise young people from working. We did hear of cases where inflexibility in the way benefits and other support are provided, or fear surrounding how they might change, made it harder for young people to take on jobs or volunteering opportunities that would make them more employable. For instance, we heard of one case of young people in care receiving poor advice on the impact employment would have on their benefits, making them scared to apply for a job; and of another case of young people worried about the impact employment would have on their levels of housing benefit. But in the main it is clear that the benefit system does not disincentivise young people from working. Analysis undertaken for the Commission found that 81% of 16- to 17-year-olds not in employment, education or training claim no benefits at all, and the equivalent figure for 18- to 24-year-olds is 35%. Those young people who do claim benefits would be significantly better off in work, on average earning an extra £2,300 - £3,700 per year in employment. Equally, immigration does not appear to lead to youth unemployment. Academic research finds either no evidence that immigration results in rises in youth unemployment, or evidence that it causes a rise which could only explain a fraction of the rise in NEET [not in education, employment or training] levels in the UK between 2004 and 2008, whilst our examination of the rise in NEET levels after 2004 could find no positive link to immigration (indeed the rise in NEET levels was highest in some of the regions least affected by immigration). A further recent report by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) found no impact from migration on claimant unemployment. Similarly, research undertaken for the Commission found that the minimum wage appears not to have been a significant contributor to the rise in youth unemployment before 2008, with a big majority of employers paying young people above the minimum wage, and that majority staying relatively constant over the period in question. | In the main, the benefit system does not disincentivise young people from working. We did hear of cases where inflexibility in the way benefits and other support are provided, or fear surrounding how they might change, made it harder for young people to take on jobs or volunteering opportunities that would make them more employable. For instance, we heard of one case of young people in care receiving poor advice on the impact employment would have on their benefits, making them scared to apply for a job; and of another case of young people worried about the impact employment would have on their levels of housing benefit. But in the main it is clear that the benefit system does not disincentivise young people from working. Analysis undertaken for the Commission found that 81% of 16- to 17-year-olds not in employment, education or training claim no benefits at all, and the equivalent figure for 18- to 24-year-olds is 35%. Those young people who do claim benefits would be significantly better off in work, on average earning an extra £2,300 - £3,700 per year in employment. Equally, immigration does not appear to lead to youth unemployment. Academic research finds either no evidence that immigration results in rises in youth unemployment, or evidence that it causes a rise which could only explain a fraction of the rise in NEET [not in education, employment or training] levels in the UK between 2004 and 2008, whilst our examination of the rise in NEET levels after 2004 could find no positive link to immigration (indeed the rise in NEET levels was highest in some of the regions least affected by immigration). A further recent report by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) found no impact from migration on claimant unemployment. Similarly, research undertaken for the Commission found that the minimum wage appears not to have been a significant contributor to the rise in youth unemployment before 2008, with a big majority of employers paying young people above the minimum wage, and that majority staying relatively constant over the period in question. |
| The research (available in full in the appendix) found that the minimum wage could now start to have an influence on young people's employment prospects (which the Low Pay Commission will need to monitor, as they have done successfully so far), but that it cannot be blamed for the rise in youth unemployment to date. | The research (available in full in the appendix) found that the minimum wage could now start to have an influence on young people's employment prospects (which the Low Pay Commission will need to monitor, as they have done successfully so far), but that it cannot be blamed for the rise in youth unemployment to date. |
| 8.45am: David Miliband doesn't want to return to the shadow cabinet. He chaired a Commission on Youth Unemployment for ACEVO (the Association of Chief Executives of Voluntary Organisations) and, in an interview about it with BBC Breakfast earlier, he said that suggestions that he might return to the Labour front bench were "flattering" but that he lost the leadership election. | 8.45am: David Miliband doesn't want to return to the shadow cabinet. He chaired a Commission on Youth Unemployment for ACEVO (the Association of Chief Executives of Voluntary Organisations) and, in an interview about it with BBC Breakfast earlier, he said that suggestions that he might return to the Labour front bench were "flattering" but that he lost the leadership election. |
| Ed needs the space to lead the Labour Party as he sees fit. I can help Labour at the grassroots. I am trying to make sure we are taking our message all over the country and not being in the shadow cabinet allows me to do that. I can minimise the amount of soap opera by not being in the shadow cabinet. | Ed needs the space to lead the Labour Party as he sees fit. I can help Labour at the grassroots. I am trying to make sure we are taking our message all over the country and not being in the shadow cabinet allows me to do that. I can minimise the amount of soap opera by not being in the shadow cabinet. |
| He also gave his brother a firm endorsement. | He also gave his brother a firm endorsement. |
| I think that the really important thing is that the country sees that the Labour party is renewing itself, which it is under Ed's leadership; that's it's able to have real discussion about the future of the country; and that it addresses these big issues because an issue like youth unemployment is a sort of thing that brings all the of us into politics in the first place ... Ed has been elected to fight the next election. I think he's going to fight the next election with real courage and conviction and I think it's up to all of us to make sure he wins the next election and serves as prime minister. | I think that the really important thing is that the country sees that the Labour party is renewing itself, which it is under Ed's leadership; that's it's able to have real discussion about the future of the country; and that it addresses these big issues because an issue like youth unemployment is a sort of thing that brings all the of us into politics in the first place ... Ed has been elected to fight the next election. I think he's going to fight the next election with real courage and conviction and I think it's up to all of us to make sure he wins the next election and serves as prime minister. |
| You can read a press notice about the Commission on Youth Unemployment report here (pdf) and the 128-page report itself here (pdf). I'll be taking a look at it later. | You can read a press notice about the Commission on Youth Unemployment report here (pdf) and the 128-page report itself here (pdf). I'll be taking a look at it later. |
| Otherwise, it's a patchy day. Here's the agenda | Otherwise, it's a patchy day. Here's the agenda |
| 8.45am: Ed Davey, the new energy secretary, is visiting an environmental consultancy with Nick Clegg. | 8.45am: Ed Davey, the new energy secretary, is visiting an environmental consultancy with Nick Clegg. |
| 10am: The Leveson inquiry resumes. Sue Akers, the Metropolitan police deputy assistant commissioner who is leading the phone hacking investigation, and Daily Mail editor Paul Dacre are giving evidence. | 10am: The Leveson inquiry resumes. Sue Akers, the Metropolitan police deputy assistant commissioner who is leading the phone hacking investigation, and Daily Mail editor Paul Dacre are giving evidence. |
| 10am: Francis Maude, the Cabinet Office minister, is announcing an anti-fraud strategy at the fraud, error and debt conference. | 10am: Francis Maude, the Cabinet Office minister, is announcing an anti-fraud strategy at the fraud, error and debt conference. |
| 10.45am: Ed Miliband visits a hospital to highlight his claim that dropping the health bill could save 6,000 nursing jobs. | 10.45am: Ed Miliband visits a hospital to highlight his claim that dropping the health bill could save 6,000 nursing jobs. |
| 2.15pm: Alex Hall, Jeremy Clarkson's ex-wife, gives evidence to the joint committee on privacy and injunctions. | 2.15pm: Alex Hall, Jeremy Clarkson's ex-wife, gives evidence to the joint committee on privacy and injunctions. |
| 2.30pm: Theresa May, the home secretary, answers questions in the Commons. | 2.30pm: Theresa May, the home secretary, answers questions in the Commons. |
| 3.15pm: Sir Bob Kerslake, the new head of the civil service, and Sir Nicholas Macpherson, permanent secretary at the Treasury, give evidence to the Commons public accounts committee about accountability. | 3.15pm: Sir Bob Kerslake, the new head of the civil service, and Sir Nicholas Macpherson, permanent secretary at the Treasury, give evidence to the Commons public accounts committee about accountability. |
| As usual, I'll be covering all the breaking political news, as well as looking at the papers and bringing you the best politics from the web. I'll post a lunchtime summary at around 1pm and another at around 4pm. | As usual, I'll be covering all the breaking political news, as well as looking at the papers and bringing you the best politics from the web. I'll post a lunchtime summary at around 1pm and another at around 4pm. |
| If you want to follow me on Twitter, I'm on @AndrewSparrow. | If you want to follow me on Twitter, I'm on @AndrewSparrow. |
| And if you're a hardcore fan, you can follow @gdnpoliticslive. It's an automated feed that tweets the start of every new post that I put on the blog. | And if you're a hardcore fan, you can follow @gdnpoliticslive. It's an automated feed that tweets the start of every new post that I put on the blog. |