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Credit ratings: how Fitch, Moody's and S&P rate each country Credit ratings: how Fitch, Moody's and S&P rate each country
(17 days later)
How do credit ratings vary by country and by ratings agencies? Greece have had both their long-term and short-term sovereign credit ratings cut down to 'selective default' by Standard and Poors (S&P). How do credit ratings vary by country and by ratings agencies? Fitch has given the UK a negative outlook, becoming the second ratings agency to put the treasured AAA rating at risk after Moody's made the same move last month.
The credit agency announced the adjustment yesterday, stating: The credit agency announced its decision yesterday, warning that the UK had "very limited fiscal space to absorb further adverse economic shocks in light of such elevated debt levels and a potentially weaker than currently forecast economic recovery".
We lowered our sovereign credit ratings on Greece to 'SD' following the Greek government's retroactive insertion of collective action clauses (CACs) in the documentation of certain series of its sovereign debt on Feb. 23, 2012. This move means there is a "slightly greater than 50% chance" that Britain will lose its AAA rating with Fitch in the next two years.
Earlier this month UK had the outlook on it's Aaa Moody's rating changed to negative in a range of adjustments by the major credit agency including downgrades for Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia and Spain. There was better news for Greece, with Fitch upgrading its rating to B- and adding a stable outlook following last week's debt restructuring deal.
Moody's also announced France and Austria would share the same fate as the UK with their outlooks also being changed to negative. A "negative outlook" means there is approximately a one in three chance that Britain will lose its AAA rating with Moody's in the next 18 months. Elsewhere, Moody's downgraded its rating for Cyprus to Ba1 - junk status - and gave it a negative outlook. The credit agency also took its rating for Greece down from Ca to C.
The nine rating adjustments from Moody's echo the mass downgrade of nine eurozone countries by Standard & Poor's which saw France stripped of its coveted AAA credit last month. S&P also cut Austria's triple-A rating, and relegated Portugal and Cyprus to junk status. The agency also downgraded the ratings of Italy and Spain by two notches and Malta, Slovakia and Slovenia were all cut by one notch. In February, the UK had the outlook on its Aaa Moody's rating changed to negative in a range of adjustments by the major credit agency including downgrades for Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia and Spain.
What does the "negative outlook" mean for the UK and for George Osborne? Hélène Mulholland writes today writes today: At that time, Moody's also announced France and Austria would share the same fate as the UK with their outlooks being changed to negative.
The chancellor, George Osborne, has defended the government's economic strategy and described the threat to Britain's AAA credit rating as a reality check on the need to confront the country's debt. The recent rating adjustments from Moody's echo the mass downgrade of nine eurozone countries by Standard & Poor's which saw France stripped of its coveted AAA credit last month. S&P also cut Austria's triple-A rating, and relegated Portugal and Cyprus to junk status. The agency downgraded the ratings of Italy and Spain by two notches and Malta, Slovakia and Slovenia were all cut by one notch.
Osborne backed the coalition's austerity plans after the Moody's ratings agency put the UK on "negative outlook" amid fears over weaker growth prospects and potential shocks from the eurozone crisis. The move has increased the chance of Britain being stripped of its triple-A status. Last August, America lost its AAA rating when S&P downgraded it to AA+, despite a deal being drawn to raise the US debt ceiling.
Last August America lost its AAA rating when S&P downgraded it to AA+, despite a deal being drawn to raise the US debt ceiling. Earlier last year, Moody's re-assessed the credit ratings of several countries. Ireland had its credit rating slashed last year, down two notches to Baa3 - leaving it at just above junk status, with the verdict being delivered as the euro dropped against the dollar.
S&P warned last July that the US faced a 50-50 chance of having their credit rating cut within the next three months. Shortly after the agency put the US on a negative watch, the value of the dollar fell.
Moody's have re-assessed the credit ratings of several countries. Ireland had their credit rating slashed last year, down two notches to Baa3 - leaving it at just above junk status, with the verdict being delivered as the Euro dropped against the dollar.
So, who are the ratings agencies? The big three agencies are Fitch, Moody's and Standard & Poors. What they do is assess how likely a borrower is to be able to repay its debts and help those trading debt contracts in the secondary market.So, who are the ratings agencies? The big three agencies are Fitch, Moody's and Standard & Poors. What they do is assess how likely a borrower is to be able to repay its debts and help those trading debt contracts in the secondary market.
That means for those trading debt contracts such as treasury gilts after they've been issued, ratings agencies help assess a fair price to charge. Ratings agencies have been criticised for having too much clout in jittery markets during the financial crisis. They were widely attacked for failing to warn of the risks posed by certain securities, in particular mortgage-backed securities. That means for those trading debt contracts such as Treasury gilts after they have been issued, ratings agencies help assess a fair price to charge. Ratings agencies have been criticised for having too much clout in jittery markets during the financial crisis. They were widely attacked for failing to warn of the risks posed by certain securities, in particular mortgage-backed securities.
Losing your rating or being downgraded can have a fatal effect on your country's ability to borrow money on the markets.Losing your rating or being downgraded can have a fatal effect on your country's ability to borrow money on the markets.
Thanks to the three big agencies, we can bring you the ratings of countries around the world as of today. Because each agency's approach is slightly different, we've colour-coded them in three broad categories too. All the ratings have been updated today, however ratings for previous updates this year and from 2011 are in the spreadsheet, so you can see how ratings have changed over time. Thanks to the three big agencies, we can bring you the ratings of countries around the world as of today. Because each agency's approach is slightly different, we have colour-coded them in three broad categories too. All the ratings have been updated today. Ratings for previous updates this year and from 2011 are in the spreadsheet, so you can see how ratings have changed over time.
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Data summaryData summary
Credit ratings by agency and country - Updated 28th Feb 2011Credit ratings by agency and country - Updated 28th Feb 2011
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Red: junk, Orange: under observation, Green: top notch
NEG: Negative; POS: Positive; STA: Stable; RUR: Rating under review 		Red: junk, Orange: under observation, Green: top notch
NEG: Negative; POS: Positive; STA: Stable; RUR: Rating under review; DEV: Developing outlook
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