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| Politics live blog: Wednesday 15 February | Politics live blog: Wednesday 15 February |
| (40 minutes later) | |
| 10.37am: King says Britain is still "steering a course through choppy waters". | |
| Many people receive negligible returns on their savings, he says. | |
| And many people in work are finding their spending power reduced, he says. | |
| 10.32am: Sir Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, is deliving his inflation report now. | |
| He says inflation is expected to fall this year. | |
| Here's an extract from the quarterly report. | |
CPI inflation fell to 4.2% in December, down from 5.2% in September but still well above the 2% target. Inflation should continue to fall sharply at the start of 2012 as the impact of past rises in VAT and petrol prices drop out of the twelve-month comparison. Inflation is likely to decline further thereafter, as the upward pressure from external costs diminishes and spare capacity continues to weigh on wages and prices. Under the assumptions that Bank Rate moves in line with market interest rates and the size of the asset purchase programme remains at £325 billion, inflation is judged somewhat more likely to be below the target than above it for a good part of the forecast period. But by the end of the period those risks are judged to be broadly balanced. | |
| 10.18am: And here is some more reaction to the unemployment figures. | |
| From Liam Byrne (pictured), the shadow work and pensions secretary | |
| This government is creating a jobless generation, with more young people out of work than ever before. | |
| Today's figures make for grim reading for the millions of squeezed families desperate for good news on the economy. With unemployment at its highest rate since 1995 and long term youth unemployment doubling in the last year, ministers must now get a grip. | |
| The government has been raising taxes and cutting spending too far and too fast and the results are now clear for all to see – they are failing on jobs and failing on the economy and the cost of that failure is an eye watering £158bn of extra borrowing and over a million young people on the dole. | |
| It is painfully clear that the government's welfare to work programmes are not doing the job and the time for dithering is over - complacent ministers must act now before a generation is left scarred by their failure. They should adopt Labour's five point plan for jobs immediately, including a tax on bankers' bonuses to fund 100,000 much needed jobs for our young people." | |
| From Paul Kenny, the GMB general secretary | |
| As it is clear that austerity and deflation as a policy is not working, it is both surprising and shocking that there are so few demands from Tory backbenches, from the CBI, from the City and from the Liberal and Labour parties that the policy be abandoned in favour of sure fire ways of getting people back to work. | |
| So widespread is support for this failed orthodoxy that some Labour groups on councils, at the behest of the leadership, are supporting deflationary pay policies for their own staff. It is just not possible to deflate your way to growth. | |
| From Charles Levy, a senior economist at the Work Foundation | |
| Today's labour market statistics offer us further hope that the economy was stabilising at the end of 2011. Comparing the three months to December with the previous three months, employment increased by 60,000. This is in sharp contrast to the steep falls recorded in the autumn. | |
| However, the bad news is that the job market remains grim, with unemployment continuing to rise to record levels and a big shift towards part-time work. The number of full-time jobs actually fell by 10,000, and there are now 1.35m part-time workers unable to find full-time work. It will take several months of sustained job creation before we can expect to see unemployment fall significantly. | |
| 10.15am: Here are the regional unemployment figures, for the period between October and December. The plus/minus figure shows the change from the previous quarter. | |
| North East 143,000 - minus 4,000 - 11.2% North West 319,000 - plus 26,000 - 9.3% Yorkshire/Humber 264,000 - minus 10,000 - 9.9% East Midlands 188,000 - plus 1,000 - 8.2% West Midlands 247,000 - plus 13,000 - 9.3% East 213,000 - plus 3,000 - 7.0% London 427,000 - plus 18,000 - 10.0% South East 278,000 - plus 2,000 - 6.3% South West 165,000 - minus 13,000 - 6.1% Wales 134,000 - minus 3,000 - 9.0% Scotland 231,000 - plus 16,000 - 8.6% Northern Ireland 62,000 - no change - 7.2% | |
| 10.07am: Here's what the Press Association have filed about the unemployment figures. | |
| The UK's unemployment rate increased to a 16-year high today after another rise in the jobless total. Unemployment jumped by 48,000 in the quarter to December to 2.67m, a jobless rate of 8.4%, the worst figure since the end of 1995. The number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance rose by 6,900 in January to 1.6m, the 11th consecutive monthly increase. The number of women claiming the allowance increased by 1,500 last month to 531,700, the highest figure since the summer of 1995. A record number of people are working part-time because they cannot find full-time jobs - up by 83,000 over the latest quarter to 1.35m. Employment increased by 60,000 to 29 million, mainly due to a rise of 90,000 in the number of part-time employees to 6.6m. Other data from the Office for National Statistics showed a 22,000 increase in youth unemployment to 1.04m, which includes 307,000 in full-time education who were looking for work. The 48,000 increase in unemployment was the smallest quarterly rise since last summer. Economic inactivity, which includes students, long-term sick, people who have retired early or those who have given up looking for work, fell by 78,000 to 9.29m, 23% of the working age population. Average pay increased by 2% in the year to December, unchanged from the previous month, although in the public sector it fell by 0.2% to 1.7%, the lowest figure since records began in 2001. There were 1.39m days lost through industrial disputes in the year to last December, the highest figure since 2002. Around 164,000 workers were made redundant or took voluntary redundancy in the final quarter of last year, up by 17,000 from the three months to September. The number of job vacancies increased by 11,000 in recent months to 476,000, although this was 21,000 down on a year ago. | |
| 10.03am: Here's what Duncan Weldon, a TUC economist, is saying about the unemployment figures on Twitter. | |
Good that employment is growing, but worrying that so much of it is under-employment, i.e. involuntary part-time and temporary work. | |
UK unemployment rate up 0.5% in 2011, Eurozone up 0.4%, US down 0.8%, Canada down 0.1%, Japan down 0.3%. UK worst performing labour market. | |
| 9.59am: And here's the statement that Lord Freud, the welfare minister, has put out about the unemployment figures. | |
| The latest figures show some encouraging signs of stability despite the challenging economic climate. With more people in employment and a rise in vacancies it is clear the private sector is still creating jobs. However, we are not complacent. With more people in the labour market we know that competition for those jobs is tough and we will continue to make it our priority to find people work. | |
| 9.49am: The Department for Work and Pensions is putting a positive gloss on the unemployment figures. It has just sent out a news release saying "the labour market is stabilising". Here are the key "good news" (my phrase) points that it's making. | 9.49am: The Department for Work and Pensions is putting a positive gloss on the unemployment figures. It has just sent out a news release saying "the labour market is stabilising". Here are the key "good news" (my phrase) points that it's making. |
| • Employment is up. "60,000 more people are now in employment than in the previous quarter," the DWP says. "This takes the total number in employment to 29.13m a rise of over a quarter of a million in the last 18 months." | • Employment is up. "60,000 more people are now in employment than in the previous quarter," the DWP says. "This takes the total number in employment to 29.13m a rise of over a quarter of a million in the last 18 months." |
| • Job vacancies are up. "With 476,000 vacancies available at any one time, this is a rise of 11,000 on the three months to October 2011," the DWP says. | • Job vacancies are up. "With 476,000 vacancies available at any one time, this is a rise of 11,000 on the three months to October 2011," the DWP says. |
| • Numbers of "inactive people" are down. "Inactive people" are those out of work who are not looking for employment. The DWP says this is partly due to the government's welfare reforms. "The majority of the 78,000 fall in inactivity came from people with a long-term illness or disability, at a time when the government's welfare reforms are moving people from incapacity benefits and for the first time giving them the tailored support they need to find sustained employment." | • Numbers of "inactive people" are down. "Inactive people" are those out of work who are not looking for employment. The DWP says this is partly due to the government's welfare reforms. "The majority of the 78,000 fall in inactivity came from people with a long-term illness or disability, at a time when the government's welfare reforms are moving people from incapacity benefits and for the first time giving them the tailored support they need to find sustained employment." |
| • The claimant count rose by just 6,900. "The underlying trend in the claimant count looks close to flat," the DWP says. | |
| 9.42am: And here's what the ONS is saying about the claimant count for January. | 9.42am: And here's what the ONS is saying about the claimant count for January. |
| There were 1.60 million people claiming jobseeker's allowance (JSA) in January 2012, up 6,900 on December 2011. The number of men claiming JSA increased by 5,400 on the month to reach 1.07 million and the number of women claiming JSA increased by 1,500 on the month to reach 531,700 – the highest figure since July 1995. | There were 1.60 million people claiming jobseeker's allowance (JSA) in January 2012, up 6,900 on December 2011. The number of men claiming JSA increased by 5,400 on the month to reach 1.07 million and the number of women claiming JSA increased by 1,500 on the month to reach 531,700 – the highest figure since July 1995. |
| 9.38am: Here is the ONS summary of today's unemployment data from October to December 2011. | 9.38am: Here is the ONS summary of today's unemployment data from October to December 2011. |
| • The employment rate for those aged from 16 to 64 was 70.3 per cent, up 0.1 on the quarter. There were 29.13 million people in employment aged 16 and over, up 60,000 on the quarter. | • The employment rate for those aged from 16 to 64 was 70.3 per cent, up 0.1 on the quarter. There were 29.13 million people in employment aged 16 and over, up 60,000 on the quarter. |
| • The unemployment rate was 8.4 per cent of the economically active population, up 0.1 on the quarter. There were 2.67 million unemployed people, up 48,000 on the quarter. The unemployment rate has not been higher since 1995. | • The unemployment rate was 8.4 per cent of the economically active population, up 0.1 on the quarter. There were 2.67 million unemployed people, up 48,000 on the quarter. The unemployment rate has not been higher since 1995. |
| • The inactivity rate for those aged from 16 to 64 was 23.1 per cent, down 0.2 on the quarter. There were 9.29 million economically inactive people aged from 16 to 64, down 78,000 on the quarter. | • The inactivity rate for those aged from 16 to 64 was 23.1 per cent, down 0.2 on the quarter. There were 9.29 million economically inactive people aged from 16 to 64, down 78,000 on the quarter. |
| • Total pay (including bonuses) rose by 2.0 per cent on a year earlier, unchanged on the three months to November 2011. | • Total pay (including bonuses) rose by 2.0 per cent on a year earlier, unchanged on the three months to November 2011. |
| • Regular pay (excluding bonuses) rose by 2.0 per cent on a year earlier, up 0.1 on the three months to November 2011. | • Regular pay (excluding bonuses) rose by 2.0 per cent on a year earlier, up 0.1 on the three months to November 2011. |
| 9.31am: Here are the headline unemployment figures. • Unemployment increased by 48,000 between October and December to 2.67m. • The number of people claiming jobseeker's allowance last month increased by 6,900 to 1.6m. Here is the Office for National Statistics summary. And here is the ONS statistical bulletin, with full details (pdf). | 9.31am: Here are the headline unemployment figures. • Unemployment increased by 48,000 between October and December to 2.67m. • The number of people claiming jobseeker's allowance last month increased by 6,900 to 1.6m. Here is the Office for National Statistics summary. And here is the ONS statistical bulletin, with full details (pdf). |
| 9.21am: We had a discreet U-turn from John Prescott this morning. He wants to get nominated as the Labour candidate for elected police commissioner in Humberside and, in an interview published in the Independent on Monday, he signalled that, if elected, he would want to get involved in operational police decisions. | 9.21am: We had a discreet U-turn from John Prescott this morning. He wants to get nominated as the Labour candidate for elected police commissioner in Humberside and, in an interview published in the Independent on Monday, he signalled that, if elected, he would want to get involved in operational police decisions. |
| But elected police commissioners aren't supposed to do this, as the statutory protocol setting out the relationship between police commissioner and chief constable makes clear. Prescott now seems to accept this, as he made clear in an interview on the Today programme. I've taken the quote from PoliticsHome. | But elected police commissioners aren't supposed to do this, as the statutory protocol setting out the relationship between police commissioner and chief constable makes clear. Prescott now seems to accept this, as he made clear in an interview on the Today programme. I've taken the quote from PoliticsHome. |
| I do believe that I can express the people's voice in regard to this community role, to provide the plan with the chief constable. The roles are clearly defined in the protocol for the police to get on with the operational job. In developing the community plan, both the crime commissioner and the chief constable work out the plan for the security of the community. That is what is in the protocol. | I do believe that I can express the people's voice in regard to this community role, to provide the plan with the chief constable. The roles are clearly defined in the protocol for the police to get on with the operational job. In developing the community plan, both the crime commissioner and the chief constable work out the plan for the security of the community. That is what is in the protocol. |
| 9.19am: The Daily Mash has a jolly take on David Cameron's plans to tackle binge drinking. | 9.19am: The Daily Mash has a jolly take on David Cameron's plans to tackle binge drinking. |
| 9.10am: Here's the Press Association preview of the unemployment figures. | 9.10am: Here's the Press Association preview of the unemployment figures. |
| The government was braced for more bad news on the jobs front today with new unemployment figures expected to show another increase, sparking fresh calls for action. Analysts predicted that the number of people out of work will increase by over 80,000 when the latest data is published by the Office for National Statistics The jobless total increased to 2.68m last month, including over a million 16 to 24-year-olds, the worst youth total since records began in 1992. The TUC has calculated that unemployment could be as high as 6.3 million in the UK if a different counting measure was used, highlighting the "true scale" of joblessness. The higher figure was revealed using an American measure, which includes people in part-time jobs because they cannot find full-time work, as well as recent redundancies, said the union organisation. Meanwhile, a study by the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development showed that job prospects are set to worsen in the coming months as firms make workers redundant. A survey of 1,000 employers also revealed a further widening of a North-South divide in the jobs market. Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight forecast that unemployment increased by around 85,000 in the three months to December to reach a 17-year high of 2.7m. Today's data is also likely to show that employment rose by around 60,000 in the final quarter of 2011 to 29.1m, inflated by increased part-time jobs, said Archer, adding that the number of people claiming jobseeker's allowance is forecast to have risen by 5,000 in January, which would be an 11th successive monthly increase. | The government was braced for more bad news on the jobs front today with new unemployment figures expected to show another increase, sparking fresh calls for action. Analysts predicted that the number of people out of work will increase by over 80,000 when the latest data is published by the Office for National Statistics The jobless total increased to 2.68m last month, including over a million 16 to 24-year-olds, the worst youth total since records began in 1992. The TUC has calculated that unemployment could be as high as 6.3 million in the UK if a different counting measure was used, highlighting the "true scale" of joblessness. The higher figure was revealed using an American measure, which includes people in part-time jobs because they cannot find full-time work, as well as recent redundancies, said the union organisation. Meanwhile, a study by the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development showed that job prospects are set to worsen in the coming months as firms make workers redundant. A survey of 1,000 employers also revealed a further widening of a North-South divide in the jobs market. Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight forecast that unemployment increased by around 85,000 in the three months to December to reach a 17-year high of 2.7m. Today's data is also likely to show that employment rose by around 60,000 in the final quarter of 2011 to 29.1m, inflated by increased part-time jobs, said Archer, adding that the number of people claiming jobseeker's allowance is forecast to have risen by 5,000 in January, which would be an 11th successive monthly increase. |
| 8.45am: It's another day heavy with economic news. We've got the unemployment figures out in less than an hour, and then Sir Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, will be holding a press conference to mark the publication of the Bank's latest quarterly GDP and inflation forecasts. There is also going to be a debate about alcohol. David Cameron is going to signal his suppport for a minimum price for alcohol. But a spokesman for the Wine and Spirit Trade Association has just told the Today programme that such a move is "probably illegal" and that the WSTA would challenge it in the courts. | 8.45am: It's another day heavy with economic news. We've got the unemployment figures out in less than an hour, and then Sir Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, will be holding a press conference to mark the publication of the Bank's latest quarterly GDP and inflation forecasts. There is also going to be a debate about alcohol. David Cameron is going to signal his suppport for a minimum price for alcohol. But a spokesman for the Wine and Spirit Trade Association has just told the Today programme that such a move is "probably illegal" and that the WSTA would challenge it in the courts. |
| Here's the agenda for the day. 9.30am: Unemployment figures are published. | Here's the agenda for the day. 9.30am: Unemployment figures are published. |
| 10.30am: Sir Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, holds a press conference as he publishes the Bank's quarterly inflation report. | 10.30am: Sir Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, holds a press conference as he publishes the Bank's quarterly inflation report. |
| 11am: Ed Miliband meets unemployed young people at the Platform in Islington project. | 11am: Ed Miliband meets unemployed young people at the Platform in Islington project. |
| Afternoon: David Cameron visits a hospital in the north east. As Patrick Wintour reports, he will use the visit to signal signal support for putting a minimum price on alcohol. | Afternoon: David Cameron visits a hospital in the north east. As Patrick Wintour reports, he will use the visit to signal signal support for putting a minimum price on alcohol. |
| As usual, I'll be covering all the breaking political news, as well as looking at the papers and bringing you the best politics from the web. I'll post a summary at around 1pm and another at around 4pm. | As usual, I'll be covering all the breaking political news, as well as looking at the papers and bringing you the best politics from the web. I'll post a summary at around 1pm and another at around 4pm. |
| If you want to follow me on Twitter, I'm on @AndrewSparrow. | If you want to follow me on Twitter, I'm on @AndrewSparrow. |
| And if you're a hardcore fan, you can follow @gdnpoliticslive. It's an automated feed that tweets the start of every new post that I put on the blog. | And if you're a hardcore fan, you can follow @gdnpoliticslive. It's an automated feed that tweets the start of every new post that I put on the blog. |