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You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/feb/22/eurozone-crisis-greece-bailout-protests
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| Eurozone crisis live: Greece braced for bailout protests | Eurozone crisis live: Greece braced for bailout protests |
| (40 minutes later) | |
| 9.16am: The latest economic data from the eurozone is a disappointment. | |
| The Composite PMI (a survey of purchasing manager conducted by Markit) came in at 49.7, down from the 50.4 recorded in January. A figure below 50 shows a contraction, and will fuel fears that the eurozone will officially fall into recession this quarter. | |
| More to come (news meeting calls) | |
| 9.05am: Three seperate rallies are scheduled to take place in Athens today. Here's the details, via Living In Greece. | |
| • The ADEDY and GSEE unions (the two biggest in Greece) have called a rally set for 16:00 EET (2pm GMT) outside Parliament in Athens. • Insurance Fund employees to rally at 12:00 EET (10am GMT) outside OEK Patission and Solomou in Athens. • PAME Communist workers group will begin a rally at 17:00 EET (3pm GMT), starting from Omonia and converging with union protest outside Parliament in Athens • A second rally is being organised in Thessaloniki begins at 18:30 EET (4.30pm GMT) at the Venizelos statue. | |
| 8.52am: Gregorz Kolodko, the former deputy prime minister and minister of finance of Poland, has come out firmly against the €130bn package today. | |
| Kolodko, who now teaches at Kozminski University in Warsaw, is the latest senior politician to argue that Greeces's economy cannot return to strong growth in the face the measures that are being piled on. Society is being pushed to its limits: | |
| In three years of austerity Greece's debt has risen from 113 per cent of gross domestic product to 163 per cent. Homelessness has jumped by 25 per cent. Unemployment has risen to 21 per cent, among the highest in the industrialised world, with 48 per cent of young people out of work. It is naïve to think they will watch TV, not demonstrate or fight in the streets. This policy is senseless. | |
| Kolodko advocates wiping out 80% of Greece's external debt, plus an EU loan at zero interest rate.: | |
| The easiest solution would be for the European Central Bank to buy new issues of Greek government bonds, but its hyper-liberal statutes and German ethos will not allow it to do so. The ECB has off-balance sheet resources of €3.3tn, equivalent to the current value of its seigniorage. If it is only used properly, the issue of eurozone sovereign debt can be resolved. | |
| The full comment piece is here. | |
| 8.41am: Europe's stock markets opened flatly this morning, with the FTSE 100 down 9 points at 5919 in London. Other markets are more or less flat. | |
| Traders say that the uncertainty over whether the Greek pacakge will a) be agreed, and b) work, means shares aren't heading higher (despite the Dow Jones index hitting its highest level since 2008 last night) | |
| Chris Weston of IG Index explained: | |
| The sights of the market are firmly fixed on the level of private sector involvement and how the market will take the prospect of hedge funds or investment banks claiming insurance from their credit-default swaps held over Greek debt if they aren't one of the potential 66% that are going to participate on a 'voluntary' basis. | |
| We actually feel that the use of the CAC (collective action clauses) and subsequent triggering of CDS (credit default swaps) would not be that negative, and would show the system actually works. | |
| 8.27am: "Whatever eurozone finance ministers were smoking in their all-night marathon talks it must have been something strong". | 8.27am: "Whatever eurozone finance ministers were smoking in their all-night marathon talks it must have been something strong". |
| That's the verdict of m'learned colleague Larry Elliott this morning. Our economics editor says that it's theoretically possible that the rescue package. After all: | That's the verdict of m'learned colleague Larry Elliott this morning. Our economics editor says that it's theoretically possible that the rescue package. After all: |
| It is all so simple: for a new wonder economy to arise in the Aegean what has to happen is for Greece's recession to end immediately, for the economy to have six consecutive years of strong growth from 2014 onwards; for the Greeks to submit to their eurozone partners' humiliating terms; for the bailout to be given the thumbs-up by the sceptical parliaments in Germany, Finland and the Netherlands, and for the assorted hedge funds, banks and insurers that make up Greece's private-sector creditors to accept a 53% "haircut" on their investments. | It is all so simple: for a new wonder economy to arise in the Aegean what has to happen is for Greece's recession to end immediately, for the economy to have six consecutive years of strong growth from 2014 onwards; for the Greeks to submit to their eurozone partners' humiliating terms; for the bailout to be given the thumbs-up by the sceptical parliaments in Germany, Finland and the Netherlands, and for the assorted hedge funds, banks and insurers that make up Greece's private-sector creditors to accept a 53% "haircut" on their investments. |
| And if that happens.... Greece will still have a debt-to-GDP ratio of 120%, the equivalent of Italy today. | And if that happens.... Greece will still have a debt-to-GDP ratio of 120%, the equivalent of Italy today. |
| Larry concludes that Greece will ultimately leave the euro. But, as IfigEusLannuon points out below, he doesn't give a date. Any predictions? | Larry concludes that Greece will ultimately leave the euro. But, as IfigEusLannuon points out below, he doesn't give a date. Any predictions? |
| Elsewhere, the Daily Telegraph's Jeremy Warner is scathing about the Charles Dellara (or Doolally, as he dubs him), for suggesting that Greece will return to growth despite official forecasts showing that the country faces five years of austerity. | Elsewhere, the Daily Telegraph's Jeremy Warner is scathing about the Charles Dellara (or Doolally, as he dubs him), for suggesting that Greece will return to growth despite official forecasts showing that the country faces five years of austerity. |
| Unfortunately, growth is one of the many things the Greeks don't have, and, according to the eurozone's own analysis, are most unlikely to get – in large part as a direct result of the eurozone's own policy prescription of never-ending austerity. | Unfortunately, growth is one of the many things the Greeks don't have, and, according to the eurozone's own analysis, are most unlikely to get – in large part as a direct result of the eurozone's own policy prescription of never-ending austerity. |
| Mr Dallara must surely know that the plan is based on completely unrealistic economic assumptions, and therefore cannot succeed on the terms proposed. | Mr Dallara must surely know that the plan is based on completely unrealistic economic assumptions, and therefore cannot succeed on the terms proposed. |
| 8.15am: Greece's two largest unions have organised demonstrations in Athens this afternoon, beginning at 4pm local time. I'll blog more details in a moment. | 8.15am: Greece's two largest unions have organised demonstrations in Athens this afternoon, beginning at 4pm local time. I'll blog more details in a moment. |
| On the economics front, we're getting new data showing how the eurozone's services and manufacturing sectors performed in January. France's data is already out, showing a surprise upturn. Industrial orders data is also due. | On the economics front, we're getting new data showing how the eurozone's services and manufacturing sectors performed in January. France's data is already out, showing a surprise upturn. Industrial orders data is also due. |
| In the UK, the Bank of England minutes will also show whether its Monetary Policy Committee was unanimous in expanding its quantitative easing programme by another £50bn this month. | In the UK, the Bank of England minutes will also show whether its Monetary Policy Committee was unanimous in expanding its quantitative easing programme by another £50bn this month. |
| Here's today's agenda: | Here's today's agenda: |
| • Bank of England minutes - 9.30am • Eurozone manufacturing+services PMI data - 9am GMT / 10am CET • Eurozone industrial New Orders - 10am GMT / 11am CET • Demonstrations in Athens - from 2pm GMT / 4pm EET | • Bank of England minutes - 9.30am • Eurozone manufacturing+services PMI data - 9am GMT / 10am CET • Eurozone industrial New Orders - 10am GMT / 11am CET • Demonstrations in Athens - from 2pm GMT / 4pm EET |
| 8.00am: Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the eurozone debt crisis. | 8.00am: Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the eurozone debt crisis. |
| Greecee is still top of the agenda today. Its €130bn financial assistance package may have been agreed yesterday morning, but a growing band of critics are questioning whether the plan will work. | Greecee is still top of the agenda today. Its €130bn financial assistance package may have been agreed yesterday morning, but a growing band of critics are questioning whether the plan will work. |
| Protests are expected on the streets of Athens today, at a demonstration organised by trade unions. That should show the depth of public anger over the plan, which will mean years of IMF-directed austerity for Greece. | Protests are expected on the streets of Athens today, at a demonstration organised by trade unions. That should show the depth of public anger over the plan, which will mean years of IMF-directed austerity for Greece. |
| With just nine days to secure the new package, Greece may also open its bond swap with private creditors today. | With just nine days to secure the new package, Greece may also open its bond swap with private creditors today. |