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| US politics live: Arizona debate fallout sees Romney up and Santorum down | US politics live: Arizona debate fallout sees Romney up and Santorum down |
| (40 minutes later) | |
| 12.15pm: And before we all get too carried away by who won and who lost last night's debate, recall these wise words from the Guardian's very own Harry Enten, who – like Neo in The Matrix – just sees numbers: | |
| One of Romney's weakest moments in a debate had no immediate impact on the polls. His $10,000 bet with Rick Perry on 10 December was maligned by pundits, yet he turned a deficit in the Iowa polls on the day of the debate into a lead five days later. | |
| Romney's inability to field questions about his taxes in a 16 January debate did have an impact on the race in South Carolina. He saw his lead drop by 10 percentage points the day after the debate, and then lost the state altogether on 21 January, after another sub-par performance on 19 January. | |
| The interesting thing about that 16 January debate, though, is that many analysts didn't believe Romney had damaged himself that much. An article by influential liberal commentator Howard Kurtz, following the debate, was headlined: "Mitt Romney Shrugs Off Attacks, Emerges Unscathed in Fox News Debate in South Carolina." | |
| In summary: it's impossible to predict what, if any, debate performances have on a candidate's standings with voters – and the pundits are no better. | |
| 11.45am: James Kwak in the Atlantic takes a closer look at Mitt Romney's tax plans announced yesterday, and is not impressed with the half-assed means to pay for them: | 11.45am: James Kwak in the Atlantic takes a closer look at Mitt Romney's tax plans announced yesterday, and is not impressed with the half-assed means to pay for them: |
| There are several things about this plan that are either loony or deeply misleading. One is the claim that it would "address the debt crisis" because it will be paid for by $500 billion in spending cuts by 2016. But the only proposals mentioned would (a) repeal the Affordable Care Act (increasing deficits, since the ACA has been scored as deficit-reducing); (b) convert Medicaid to a block grant (no deficit impact); (c) increase government efficiency (yawn); and (d) cut Social Security and Medicare benefits for "younger generations" (no impact until well after 2016). In other words, it's a complete fantasy. | There are several things about this plan that are either loony or deeply misleading. One is the claim that it would "address the debt crisis" because it will be paid for by $500 billion in spending cuts by 2016. But the only proposals mentioned would (a) repeal the Affordable Care Act (increasing deficits, since the ACA has been scored as deficit-reducing); (b) convert Medicaid to a block grant (no deficit impact); (c) increase government efficiency (yawn); and (d) cut Social Security and Medicare benefits for "younger generations" (no impact until well after 2016). In other words, it's a complete fantasy. |
| 11.20am: For your viewing pleasure, we have posted a two-and-a-half minute video of clips from last night's debate here. | 11.20am: For your viewing pleasure, we have posted a two-and-a-half minute video of clips from last night's debate here. |
| 11.05am: Hot Mormon-related scoop news from Buzzfeed: US Senator and potential vice presidential candidate Marco Rubio was once a Mormon: | 11.05am: Hot Mormon-related scoop news from Buzzfeed: US Senator and potential vice presidential candidate Marco Rubio was once a Mormon: |
| Rubio was baptized into the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints with his family at around the age of eight, and remained active in the faith for a number of years during his early youth, family members told BuzzFeed. | Rubio was baptized into the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints with his family at around the age of eight, and remained active in the faith for a number of years during his early youth, family members told BuzzFeed. |
| Rubio spokesman Alex Conant confirmed the story to BuzzFeed. Conant said Rubio returned to the Catholic church a few years later with his family, receiving his first communion on Christmas day in 1984 at the age of 13. | Rubio spokesman Alex Conant confirmed the story to BuzzFeed. Conant said Rubio returned to the Catholic church a few years later with his family, receiving his first communion on Christmas day in 1984 at the age of 13. |
| Buzzfeed claims rather tenuously "this could affect Romney's Vice Presidential calculation". I guess it could but really? Who knows. | Buzzfeed claims rather tenuously "this could affect Romney's Vice Presidential calculation". I guess it could but really? Who knows. |
| 10.55am: How would America's Founding Fathers regard of the current crop of Republican candidates? | 10.55am: How would America's Founding Fathers regard of the current crop of Republican candidates? |
| Not much, thinks British historian Frank Prochaska, blogging at the OUP: | Not much, thinks British historian Frank Prochaska, blogging at the OUP: |
| What the Founding Fathers would make of the motley group of Republican candidates is speculative, but one can assume that they would dismiss them as partisan nobodies. It is often forgotten, but the Founders designed the Constitution in a pre-democratic age before the emergence of a party system, which they feared could lead, in George Washington's words, to the "unjust dominion" of "unprincipled men." They were well aware that they had created an imperfect document beset by compromise and issues unresolved. If they were alive today, and as wise as assumed, they might wish to amend the aging text that has failed to stem the tide of faction, has led to political deadlock, and has become an obstacle to governance. | What the Founding Fathers would make of the motley group of Republican candidates is speculative, but one can assume that they would dismiss them as partisan nobodies. It is often forgotten, but the Founders designed the Constitution in a pre-democratic age before the emergence of a party system, which they feared could lead, in George Washington's words, to the "unjust dominion" of "unprincipled men." They were well aware that they had created an imperfect document beset by compromise and issues unresolved. If they were alive today, and as wise as assumed, they might wish to amend the aging text that has failed to stem the tide of faction, has led to political deadlock, and has become an obstacle to governance. |
| Partisan nobodies eh? | Partisan nobodies eh? |
| 10.45am: Is there a top-secret alliance between Mitt Romney and Ron Paul? Chris Moody of Yahoo News hears Rick Santorum suggest something is up: | 10.45am: Is there a top-secret alliance between Mitt Romney and Ron Paul? Chris Moody of Yahoo News hears Rick Santorum suggest something is up: |
| After months on the campaign trail, Paul has largely chosen to focus his attacks on candidates not named Mitt Romney, most recently going after Santorum, the latest candidate to pose a challenge to Romney's candidacy. The idea that Ron Paul would spare Romney – while attacking candidates with arguably stronger conservative records than the former Massachusetts governor – has Santorum wondering. | After months on the campaign trail, Paul has largely chosen to focus his attacks on candidates not named Mitt Romney, most recently going after Santorum, the latest candidate to pose a challenge to Romney's candidacy. The idea that Ron Paul would spare Romney – while attacking candidates with arguably stronger conservative records than the former Massachusetts governor – has Santorum wondering. |
| "You'll have to ask Congressman Paul and Governor Romney what they've got going together," Santorum told reporters after the Republican presidential debate in Mesa, Arizona on Wednesday. | "You'll have to ask Congressman Paul and Governor Romney what they've got going together," Santorum told reporters after the Republican presidential debate in Mesa, Arizona on Wednesday. |
| It has been a puzzle as to why Ron Paul has never gone after Mitt Romney with any energy, when Romney's record is no better than, say, Rick Perry's, who Paul attacked with gusto. | It has been a puzzle as to why Ron Paul has never gone after Mitt Romney with any energy, when Romney's record is no better than, say, Rick Perry's, who Paul attacked with gusto. |
| 10.25am: Here's a round-up of some of the better punditry from last night in Arizona. | 10.25am: Here's a round-up of some of the better punditry from last night in Arizona. |
| Amy Walter at ABC News was particularly scathing on Rick Santorum's performance, calling him the "clear loser" from the debate: | Amy Walter at ABC News was particularly scathing on Rick Santorum's performance, calling him the "clear loser" from the debate: |
| Whatever momentum Santorum had came to a screeching halt in tonight's debate. Romney lured Santorum time and again into defending his record in Washington. And, Santorum took the bait – responding to his attacks with process arguments and Washington gobbleygook speak. | Whatever momentum Santorum had came to a screeching halt in tonight's debate. Romney lured Santorum time and again into defending his record in Washington. And, Santorum took the bait – responding to his attacks with process arguments and Washington gobbleygook speak. |
| Jonathan Bernstein, in a well-argued piece in the Washington Post, said the real losers were Republicans denied a proper debate after Santorum got bogged down: | Jonathan Bernstein, in a well-argued piece in the Washington Post, said the real losers were Republicans denied a proper debate after Santorum got bogged down: |
| The best example? At one point, he was on a roll attacking Romneycare fairly effectively, when Romney (talking over him) just said one thing: "Arlen Specter." You see, he had previously attacked Romney for supporting Specter against … oh, it doesn't matter. What matters is that Santorum actually fell for it and switched from an effective attack into a long, nuanced defense of his actions in a long-ago Senate primary in Pennsylvania. All of which, first of all, didn't do anything positive for him, but, more importantly, was off the main thing that he should have been pounding: Romneycare = Obamacare. A total Jedi Mind Trick moment. | The best example? At one point, he was on a roll attacking Romneycare fairly effectively, when Romney (talking over him) just said one thing: "Arlen Specter." You see, he had previously attacked Romney for supporting Specter against … oh, it doesn't matter. What matters is that Santorum actually fell for it and switched from an effective attack into a long, nuanced defense of his actions in a long-ago Senate primary in Pennsylvania. All of which, first of all, didn't do anything positive for him, but, more importantly, was off the main thing that he should have been pounding: Romneycare = Obamacare. A total Jedi Mind Trick moment. |
| Molly Ball in the Atlantic also scored the debate as a win for Romney: | Molly Ball in the Atlantic also scored the debate as a win for Romney: |
| One of the qualities that endears Santorum most to GOP base voters is his refusal to back down – his willingness to defend his positions rather than tweak or finesse them the way, say, Romney might. He's unapologetic. But there's a serious flip side to this quality: It means he tenaciously clings to the ugliest parts of his record. At the debate, that meant long, pleading stretches of Santorum trying to justify his pursuit of earmarks in Congress, his enthusiastic support for former Sen. Arlen Specter's 2004 reelection, and his vote in favor of the No Child Left Behind education law. More than once, he was booed. | One of the qualities that endears Santorum most to GOP base voters is his refusal to back down – his willingness to defend his positions rather than tweak or finesse them the way, say, Romney might. He's unapologetic. But there's a serious flip side to this quality: It means he tenaciously clings to the ugliest parts of his record. At the debate, that meant long, pleading stretches of Santorum trying to justify his pursuit of earmarks in Congress, his enthusiastic support for former Sen. Arlen Specter's 2004 reelection, and his vote in favor of the No Child Left Behind education law. More than once, he was booed. |
| 10am: Rick Santorum apears to be taking a day off the campaign trail, according to his published schedule, but the other three are busy, with Romney and Gingrich visiting four states between them. | 10am: Rick Santorum apears to be taking a day off the campaign trail, according to his published schedule, but the other three are busy, with Romney and Gingrich visiting four states between them. |
| Mitt Romney • 8.30am MT: Addresses a national meeting of the Associated Builders and Contractors, Phoenix, Arizona • 7pm ET: Attends Milford Tea Party event, Milford, Michigan | Mitt Romney • 8.30am MT: Addresses a national meeting of the Associated Builders and Contractors, Phoenix, Arizona • 7pm ET: Attends Milford Tea Party event, Milford, Michigan |
| Newt Gingrich • 11am PT: Holds a rally, Kennewick, Washington state • 2pm PT: Holds a rally, Spokane, Washington • 7.30pm PT: Holds a rally, Coeur d'Alene, Idaho | Newt Gingrich • 11am PT: Holds a rally, Kennewick, Washington state • 2pm PT: Holds a rally, Spokane, Washington • 7.30pm PT: Holds a rally, Coeur d'Alene, Idaho |
| Ron Paul • 9am MT: Holds a campaign fundraising breakfast, Mesa, Arizona | Ron Paul • 9am MT: Holds a campaign fundraising breakfast, Mesa, Arizona |
| 9.30am: Plenty of heat but little light was the reaction to last night's Republican presidential candidates debate in Arizona, with Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney quibbling over ancient political history as both men looked ahead to the coming primaries. | 9.30am: Plenty of heat but little light was the reaction to last night's Republican presidential candidates debate in Arizona, with Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney quibbling over ancient political history as both men looked ahead to the coming primaries. |
| The general consensus from the watching journalists was that Santorum harmed his chances with some long-winded explanations of past positions, while Romney could afford a bad night because of his stronger overall position. | The general consensus from the watching journalists was that Santorum harmed his chances with some long-winded explanations of past positions, while Romney could afford a bad night because of his stronger overall position. |
| Little mention in tonight's debate of: jobs, unemployment, infrastructure, the Eurozone, QE3, mortgages, GSEs, Dodd-Frank. #recovery? | Little mention in tonight's debate of: jobs, unemployment, infrastructure, the Eurozone, QE3, mortgages, GSEs, Dodd-Frank. #recovery? |
| Those of you with a strong stomach can enjoy the ill-tempered and at times chaotic event in our live blog of the Arizona debate. | Those of you with a strong stomach can enjoy the ill-tempered and at times chaotic event in our live blog of the Arizona debate. |
| Here's Ryan Devereaux's summary of the highlights and lowlights from Mesa: | Here's Ryan Devereaux's summary of the highlights and lowlights from Mesa: |
| • While Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum traded blows last night, neither candidates managed to pull off a decisive win. In what may have been the last debate of the race, Romney took Santorum to task on his record in Congress, characterising him as a Washington insider and supporter of big government spending. Santorum was also criticized for his support for No Child Left Behind – George Bush's signature education law – and votes providing funding for Planned Parenthood. When Romney attempted to highlight how he had balanced the state budget as governor of Massachusetts, Santorum jumped on the opportunity, warning Romney: "Don't go around bragging about something you have to do. Michael Dukakis balanced the budget for 10 years. Does that make him qualified to be president of the United States? I don't think so." | • While Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum traded blows last night, neither candidates managed to pull off a decisive win. In what may have been the last debate of the race, Romney took Santorum to task on his record in Congress, characterising him as a Washington insider and supporter of big government spending. Santorum was also criticized for his support for No Child Left Behind – George Bush's signature education law – and votes providing funding for Planned Parenthood. When Romney attempted to highlight how he had balanced the state budget as governor of Massachusetts, Santorum jumped on the opportunity, warning Romney: "Don't go around bragging about something you have to do. Michael Dukakis balanced the budget for 10 years. Does that make him qualified to be president of the United States? I don't think so." |
| • The debate opened with a discussion on earmarks and Santorum immediately took heat from Romney. Santorum provided a long, rambling defense of his pro-earmark votes. The explanation did not sit well with the audience. Romney seized on the opportunity, saying: "When I was fighting to save the Olympics, you were fighting to save the bridge to nowhere." A huge round of applause followed. | • The debate opened with a discussion on earmarks and Santorum immediately took heat from Romney. Santorum provided a long, rambling defense of his pro-earmark votes. The explanation did not sit well with the audience. Romney seized on the opportunity, saying: "When I was fighting to save the Olympics, you were fighting to save the bridge to nowhere." A huge round of applause followed. |
| • Texas congressman Ron Paul and former house speaker Newt Gingrich were often overshadowed by the Mitt and Rick show. Paul joined Romney in his attack on Santorum's record. When asked why he had ran an ad calling Santorum "a fake", Paul responded: "Because he's a fake." The former Pennsylvania senator was largely dismissive of Paul's attempts. Gingrich, who has been steadily slipping since his win in South Carolina, spent the much of the debate leaning back in his chair and enjoying the barbs exchanged by Romney and Santorum. When asked to describe himself in one word he said: "Cheerful". | • Texas congressman Ron Paul and former house speaker Newt Gingrich were often overshadowed by the Mitt and Rick show. Paul joined Romney in his attack on Santorum's record. When asked why he had ran an ad calling Santorum "a fake", Paul responded: "Because he's a fake." The former Pennsylvania senator was largely dismissive of Paul's attempts. Gingrich, who has been steadily slipping since his win in South Carolina, spent the much of the debate leaning back in his chair and enjoying the barbs exchanged by Romney and Santorum. When asked to describe himself in one word he said: "Cheerful". |
| • When it came to foreign policy the candidates were decidedly Iran-centric. When asked what he would do about the ongoing unrest in Syria, for example, Santorum failed to outline anything that resembled a plan. Instead he took the opportunity to make a cursory mention of Syria's ties to Iran, then launched into a lengthy discussion of why Iran represents one of the most significant threats to international security. | • When it came to foreign policy the candidates were decidedly Iran-centric. When asked what he would do about the ongoing unrest in Syria, for example, Santorum failed to outline anything that resembled a plan. Instead he took the opportunity to make a cursory mention of Syria's ties to Iran, then launched into a lengthy discussion of why Iran represents one of the most significant threats to international security. |
| • Dodging or blatantly ignoring questions was a repeated theme throughout the night. On the last question of the evening, asking the candidates to lay out the most common misconception about them, Gingrich avoided answering. Romney then followed suit, and even offered an explanation why: "You get to ask the questions you want, I get to give the answers I want," he told the moderator. | • Dodging or blatantly ignoring questions was a repeated theme throughout the night. On the last question of the evening, asking the candidates to lay out the most common misconception about them, Gingrich avoided answering. Romney then followed suit, and even offered an explanation why: "You get to ask the questions you want, I get to give the answers I want," he told the moderator. |