David Cameron wants nothing less than Tory hegemony

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/feb/26/cameron-tory-hegemony-lib-dems-beware

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Thirteen years of opposition were especially painful for those Tories who formed their political opinions in the years when Margaret Thatcher appeared to reign supreme. Opposition from 1997 was humiliating and served to increase the fiercely competitive instincts of the Cameron circle. Time in opposition helped them to plan to try and ensure that, if Labour let them win back power, they would never lose again – even with historically low levels of support for the party. Their strategy is based on attempting to ensure an overall Conservative majority in the future – even if they fail to win a single extra vote. But they need time to get these plans in place. It was not by chance that George Osborne proposed in the coalition talks that parliaments should be fixed for five-year terms.

Some Conservatives have been calling for "greater devolution to Scotland". Such a principle would have been anathema to most Conservatives in the last few decades. But the change of plan appears to be motivated by how a policy of greater devolution that also applied to England would enhance their position of power. The Conservative party interest is obvious when you consider that it won 297 of the 433 seats in England in May 2010 (with less than 40% of the vote). A commission has recently been set up as part of the coalition agreement to look at the "West Lothian question" and Cameron is extremely keen to see progress on this issue.

The effect of the current parliamentary boundary review process (which uniquely disallowed the old rule about minimising disruption to the previous constituencies) is thought likely on most estimates to give the Conservatives 50% of the seats for the same votes that gave them 47% in 2010.

But the effect will be greater than these estimates because a very disruptive review is bound to disproportionately damage the prospects for Lib Dem MPs, who depend to a much greater degree than other MPs on their capacity to build personal votes and defy national trends. Conservatives will be the main winners if Lib Dem seats are lost as a result. Lib Dems agreed to the review in return for the alternative vote referendum. At first the Conservatives implied some indifference about the outcome, while most polls generally indicated public support. But an inept campaign for AV, a divided Labour party and the most dishonest Tory campaign since Saatchi and Saatchi's "£1,250 Tax Bombshell" campaign of 1992 scuppered any prospects of a change that would have ameliorated this problem for the Lib Dems.

Even so, the boundary review will still not deliver the Conservatives as many extra seats as they at first hoped. Possible changes to the system for electoral registration may make up for this. Potential changes under consideration would mean effectively ending the present legal requirement to comply with the registration process, which puts those eligible to vote on a register that then enables them to cast their vote. Replacing this system with a purely optional approach would inevitably mean that the most literate, the oldest and most stable populations generally continue to be registered to vote. Many people who are less well educated, more mobile, younger or private sector tenants (and those for whom English is not their first language) are more likely to drop off the lists of those entitled to vote. Local authorities will either choose not to use, or be unable to afford, measures to counter this (such as more door to door canvassing). Most significantly, the changes would also ensure that the five-yearly boundary reviews (in line with the five-year parliaments) become much more favourable to the Conservatives in future.

The problem for this Conservative strategy is that, in order to work, it will need the coalition to last five years. The boundary review process will not be complete until late 2013 and there will be key votes in both houses on implementing the boundary reviews sometime closer to the general election. The commission on the West Lothian question is unlikely to report much before then and any changes to the voter registration process will take until 2015.

This explains why a major preoccupation for Tory strategists remains keeping the Lib Dems in the coalition until 2015 (and it may account for them tolerating plans being brought forward for Lords' reform). But Lib Dem strategists should be wary about this: well-intentioned moves to reduce electoral fraud may be hijacked to make other changes. This would be part of a grand plan to ensure that the Conservative domination of the 20th century is followed by Conservative hegemony in the 21st.

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