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Mississippi and Alabama primary day – US elections live Mississippi and Alabama primary day – US elections live
(40 minutes later)
2.41pm: Some notes on Alabama:
• Rick Santorum may not pick up as many delegates as he might have here because his campaign failed to qualify in four Alabama districts. A similar story played out in Virginia and Michigan.
• Exit polls from the 2008 GOP primaries show the influence of evangelical Christian voters in Alabama. Seventy-seven percent of GOP primary voters in that race identified as Born Again and Evangelical. Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee beat eventual nominee John McCain 41-37. Romney grabbed 18 percent of the vote.
By the way: Why is Mitt Romney having such a tough time with evangelical voters? It's not his Mormonism, according to Michael Tesler:
My analysis of seven surveys conducted by YouGov from late January to early March 2012 ... suggests that Romney's religion is not the main reason why he has not won over these voters. ... The answer most likely resides in moral issues like abortion and gay marriage. For, unlike attitudes about Mormons, Evangelical Republicans are much more conservative on these issues than their fellow partisans.
(Tesler h/t: Daily Dish)
2.24pm: So who's going to win tonight? It depends which poll you believe.
Amy Walter of ABC News observes:
PPP, ARG and Rassmussen have almost as much at stake 2night in AL/MS as the GOP candidates. #pollingshowdown
— amy walter (@amyewalter) March 13, 2012
We like this idea a lot. Covering the GOP primaries without having to come into direct contact with the candidates, but instead focusing on the horse race among pollsters.
Here's a table created by HuffPollster of Alabama and Mississippi polling:
• A big disagreement in MS: ARG sees a slim 2-point lead for Romney in Mississippi, while Rasmussen sees a whopping 8-point lead.
• A big disagreement in AL: ARG sees a 3-point lead for Gingrich in Alabama, while Rasmussen sees Gingrich-Santorum-Romney all within 2 points of one another.
Ryan Lizza sees potential hidden strength for Santorum and Gingrich:
Note that polls in TN & SC underestimated Newt/Santo support. SC RCP avg: Newt +5; final: Newt +13. TN RCP avg: Santo +3; final: Santo +9.
— Ryan Lizza (@RyanLizza) March 13, 2012
2.11pm: Titters spread across the Twittersphere awhile ago over a Santorum campaign typo.
... twitter.com/daveweigel/sta…
— daveweigel (@daveweigel) March 13, 2012
2.08pm: Hello there – Tom McCarthy in New York here, pitching in on the live blog this afternoon. Richard Adams will be back this evening as the returns from Alabama and Mississippi start rolling in.2.08pm: Hello there – Tom McCarthy in New York here, pitching in on the live blog this afternoon. Richard Adams will be back this evening as the returns from Alabama and Mississippi start rolling in.
Some fightin' words moments ago from Axelrod:Some fightin' words moments ago from Axelrod:
We know he has plenty of Cadillacs, but can Mitt buy himself Alabama or Mississippi? He outspent rivals by at least three-to-one there.We know he has plenty of Cadillacs, but can Mitt buy himself Alabama or Mississippi? He outspent rivals by at least three-to-one there.
— David Axelrod (@davidaxelrod) March 13, 2012— David Axelrod (@davidaxelrod) March 13, 2012
1.45pm: Some good news for Rick Santorum in Alabama: the state's governor voted for him. The NYT's Caucus blog reports:1.45pm: Some good news for Rick Santorum in Alabama: the state's governor voted for him. The NYT's Caucus blog reports:
A spokesman for Governor Bentley, Jeremy King, confirmed the vote, saying that Mr Bentley viewed Mr. Santorum "as the most conservative candidate" in the field.A spokesman for Governor Bentley, Jeremy King, confirmed the vote, saying that Mr Bentley viewed Mr. Santorum "as the most conservative candidate" in the field.
But Mr Bentley chose not to issue a public endorsement or make a statement himself, Mr King said, because "he believes a vote is a personal decision that should be based on a voter's values and principles, not on someone else's opinion."But Mr Bentley chose not to issue a public endorsement or make a statement himself, Mr King said, because "he believes a vote is a personal decision that should be based on a voter's values and principles, not on someone else's opinion."
1.30pm: Rush Limbaugh's apology to Sandra Fluke hasn't gone down well with advertisers or the general public, it would appear.1.30pm: Rush Limbaugh's apology to Sandra Fluke hasn't gone down well with advertisers or the general public, it would appear.
Rasmussen polls potential voters:Rasmussen polls potential voters:
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters shows that only 29% believe Limbaugh's apology for his recent comments was sincere. Fifty-three percent (53%) do not think his apology was sincere, and another 18% are undecided.A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters shows that only 29% believe Limbaugh's apology for his recent comments was sincere. Fifty-three percent (53%) do not think his apology was sincere, and another 18% are undecided.
1.10pm: The New York Post wins the battle of the headlines today with its effort "It's redneck-and-neck" on the southern primaries today, in a piece that includes another bout of Mitt Romney shooting himself in the silver spoon:1.10pm: The New York Post wins the battle of the headlines today with its effort "It's redneck-and-neck" on the southern primaries today, in a piece that includes another bout of Mitt Romney shooting himself in the silver spoon:
While Romney tried to press his down-home credentials, he couldn't help another bout of embarrassing name-dropping when he was asked about quarterback Peyton Manning during an Alabama radio interview.While Romney tried to press his down-home credentials, he couldn't help another bout of embarrassing name-dropping when he was asked about quarterback Peyton Manning during an Alabama radio interview.
"I've got a lot of good friends – the owner of the Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets – both owners are friends of mine," Romney said."I've got a lot of good friends – the owner of the Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets – both owners are friends of mine," Romney said.
The gaffe is similar to when Romney earlier said he didn't follow Nascar closely but knew team owners.The gaffe is similar to when Romney earlier said he didn't follow Nascar closely but knew team owners.
Does Mitt Romney have any friends who don't own a Nascar team or NFL franchise? George Bush was an owner of the Texas Rangers baseball team but he managed not to make a big deal of it.Does Mitt Romney have any friends who don't own a Nascar team or NFL franchise? George Bush was an owner of the Texas Rangers baseball team but he managed not to make a big deal of it.
12.45pm: When we get the results tonight from Mississippi and Alabama we may have a better idea of how long and how far the Rwpublican presidential race has got left to run.12.45pm: When we get the results tonight from Mississippi and Alabama we may have a better idea of how long and how far the Rwpublican presidential race has got left to run.
But it may yet be a long slog, which is the the mildly depressing calculation made by Sean Trende, the senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics. He argues that the race so far has been remarkably stable in terms of who has what what:But it may yet be a long slog, which is the the mildly depressing calculation made by Sean Trende, the senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics. He argues that the race so far has been remarkably stable in terms of who has what what:
So we don't see much evidence of momentum in the primaries thus far. This, of course, could change in the future, and perhaps once Romney passes a certain threshold, it will. Certainly if he were to win Mississippi or Alabama, we would expect it to be a declared a very good night for him. The model suggests that he should pull in about 32% of the three-way vote in Alabama, and about 31% in Mississippi. But with Santorum and Gingrich now splitting the non-Romney vote in the Deep South, Romney might actually pull off the upset in Alabama (assuming the model underestimates him a touch there).So we don't see much evidence of momentum in the primaries thus far. This, of course, could change in the future, and perhaps once Romney passes a certain threshold, it will. Certainly if he were to win Mississippi or Alabama, we would expect it to be a declared a very good night for him. The model suggests that he should pull in about 32% of the three-way vote in Alabama, and about 31% in Mississippi. But with Santorum and Gingrich now splitting the non-Romney vote in the Deep South, Romney might actually pull off the upset in Alabama (assuming the model underestimates him a touch there).
So until Romney shows signs of going on a roll, this thing could run and run.So until Romney shows signs of going on a roll, this thing could run and run.
12.30pm: Will Barack Obama be serving David Cameron wine out of a box? Maybe some cheaper plonk that the White House picked up from Trader Joe's? We just don't know, although Bloomberg News tries hard to find out:12.30pm: Will Barack Obama be serving David Cameron wine out of a box? Maybe some cheaper plonk that the White House picked up from Trader Joe's? We just don't know, although Bloomberg News tries hard to find out:
The White House declined to comment for this article or to make available Daniel Shanks, the usher who has managed wine selection since the Clinton administration, or social secretary Jeremy Bernard. First Lady Michelle Obama's office referred questions to the White House press office.The White House declined to comment for this article or to make available Daniel Shanks, the usher who has managed wine selection since the Clinton administration, or social secretary Jeremy Bernard. First Lady Michelle Obama's office referred questions to the White House press office.
White House deputy press secretary Josh Earnest declined to disclose which wines were served at the German or Korean state dinners, identify wines from non-state dinners, make menus of past meals available for inspection or answer questions about the shift in practice.White House deputy press secretary Josh Earnest declined to disclose which wines were served at the German or Korean state dinners, identify wines from non-state dinners, make menus of past meals available for inspection or answer questions about the shift in practice.
Earnest also declined to say whether the White House would release the names of wines at the Cameron dinner.Earnest also declined to say whether the White House would release the names of wines at the Cameron dinner.
Apparently the White House doesn't want to be embarrassed about the serving of fancy, expensive wines at state dinners.Apparently the White House doesn't want to be embarrassed about the serving of fancy, expensive wines at state dinners.
12 noon: It's true: Dick Cheney won't visit Canada because it is .... too dangerous?12 noon: It's true: Dick Cheney won't visit Canada because it is .... too dangerous?
And as is usually the case when Dick Cheney thinks a place is too dangerous – Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan – he gets younger men to go. In this case it is noted Canadian Mark Steyn.And as is usually the case when Dick Cheney thinks a place is too dangerous – Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan – he gets younger men to go. In this case it is noted Canadian Mark Steyn.
11.55am: This is slightly old but finally an appreciation of the discreet wit of Mitt Romney, via the Atlantic's excellent Molly Ball:11.55am: This is slightly old but finally an appreciation of the discreet wit of Mitt Romney, via the Atlantic's excellent Molly Ball:
There are plenty of legitimate reasons to question or distrust Mitt Romney. But the fact that he went to Mississippi and said "y'all" doesn't make him a phony – it makes him that rare thing in politics, a guy with a sense of humor.There are plenty of legitimate reasons to question or distrust Mitt Romney. But the fact that he went to Mississippi and said "y'all" doesn't make him a phony – it makes him that rare thing in politics, a guy with a sense of humor.
The problem with Romney's humour, I'd suggest, is in his delivery. A Mitt Romney speech is where jokes go to die.The problem with Romney's humour, I'd suggest, is in his delivery. A Mitt Romney speech is where jokes go to die.
11.40am: Obama now moves on to the trade case the administration is taking against China over rare earth materials used in electronics manufacturing such as advanced batteries used in hybrid cars and Blackberrys.11.40am: Obama now moves on to the trade case the administration is taking against China over rare earth materials used in electronics manufacturing such as advanced batteries used in hybrid cars and Blackberrys.
"If China would simply let the market work on its own, we would have no objections," says Obama, outlining the case the US is taking alongside Japan and others through the WTO."If China would simply let the market work on its own, we would have no objections," says Obama, outlining the case the US is taking alongside Japan and others through the WTO.
China produces more than 90% of the world's output of such materials but has recently squeezed exports, hurting manufacturers elsewhere. Last year the price of rare earth materials rose sharply after Chinese traders started stockpiling rare earth reserves.China produces more than 90% of the world's output of such materials but has recently squeezed exports, hurting manufacturers elsewhere. Last year the price of rare earth materials rose sharply after Chinese traders started stockpiling rare earth reserves.
Chinese exports restrictions are said to force manufacturers to pay double the price of their Chinese competitors for rare earth materials.Chinese exports restrictions are said to force manufacturers to pay double the price of their Chinese competitors for rare earth materials.
The Financial Times reports:The Financial Times reports:
Beijing on Tuesday rejected the claims by the US, EU and Japan, saying China would "continue to implement effective management of rare earths exports in accordance with WTO regulations". The foreign ministry said China hoped that "other countries with rare earths will also actively develop their rare earths resources to share the burden of global rare earths supply".Beijing on Tuesday rejected the claims by the US, EU and Japan, saying China would "continue to implement effective management of rare earths exports in accordance with WTO regulations". The foreign ministry said China hoped that "other countries with rare earths will also actively develop their rare earths resources to share the burden of global rare earths supply".
In more pointed comments, Xinhua, the state press agency, said the move was "rash and unfair", adding that it "may hurt economic relations between the world's largest and second-largest economies".In more pointed comments, Xinhua, the state press agency, said the move was "rash and unfair", adding that it "may hurt economic relations between the world's largest and second-largest economies".
"A better choice for the United States would be sitting down with China face to face and solve the problem through negotiations instead of making it an internationalised issue," Xinhua said in an opinion piece."A better choice for the United States would be sitting down with China face to face and solve the problem through negotiations instead of making it an internationalised issue," Xinhua said in an opinion piece.
11.35am: Slightly late, President Obama appears in the Rose Garden.11.35am: Slightly late, President Obama appears in the Rose Garden.
Although the announcement is meant to be about prosecuting a trade case via the World Trade Organisation against China, Obama begins by discussing the recent killings in Afghanistan and vowing to hold a full investigation.Although the announcement is meant to be about prosecuting a trade case via the World Trade Organisation against China, Obama begins by discussing the recent killings in Afghanistan and vowing to hold a full investigation.
"America takes this as seriously as if it were our own citizens and our own children who were murdered," Obama says, in reference to the 16 Afghan civilians killed in a shooting spree by a US soldier on Sunday."America takes this as seriously as if it were our own citizens and our own children who were murdered," Obama says, in reference to the 16 Afghan civilians killed in a shooting spree by a US soldier on Sunday.
11.04am: What are the Republican voters of Alabama thinking before today's primary in the Yellowhammer State? Film-maker Kat Keene Hogue travels to Alabama to ask them, the latest in our Primary Voices series.11.04am: What are the Republican voters of Alabama thinking before today's primary in the Yellowhammer State? Film-maker Kat Keene Hogue travels to Alabama to ask them, the latest in our Primary Voices series.
10.45am: One event that really was taking place was to be Newt Gingrich's visit to the Birmingham Zoo in Alabama. But it has been cancelled. (Apparently the animals objected because they didn't want to be cast in a bad light.)10.45am: One event that really was taking place was to be Newt Gingrich's visit to the Birmingham Zoo in Alabama. But it has been cancelled. (Apparently the animals objected because they didn't want to be cast in a bad light.)
10.25am: Here's a brief timeline of events* that are happening today.10.25am: Here's a brief timeline of events* that are happening today.
11.10am: President Obama declares war on China. Trade war, that is. Well, officially the president "delivers a statement announcing 'new efforts to enforce our trade rights with China and level the playing field for America's businesses and workers'."11.10am: President Obama declares war on China. Trade war, that is. Well, officially the president "delivers a statement announcing 'new efforts to enforce our trade rights with China and level the playing field for America's businesses and workers'."
11.11am: Mitt Romney denounces whatever President Obama does regarding trade with China as inadequate.11.11am: Mitt Romney denounces whatever President Obama does regarding trade with China as inadequate.
11.50am: Mitt Romney meets voters in Missouri, which holds caucuses on Saturday. At 11.56am Romney will say something silly about eating a regional speciality and mis-pronounce the name of the city as "St Louie".11.50am: Mitt Romney meets voters in Missouri, which holds caucuses on Saturday. At 11.56am Romney will say something silly about eating a regional speciality and mis-pronounce the name of the city as "St Louie".
12.45pm: Newt Gingrich addresses the Vestavia Hills Chamber of Commerce. in Birmingham, Alabama. No one cares.12.45pm: Newt Gingrich addresses the Vestavia Hills Chamber of Commerce. in Birmingham, Alabama. No one cares.
6.30pm: President Obama and British premier David Cameron attend a NCAA basketball game in Dayton, Ohio.6.30pm: President Obama and British premier David Cameron attend a NCAA basketball game in Dayton, Ohio.
6.39pm: President Obama suddenly realises that David Cameron has never watched a basketball game before and is sick of explaining what a three pointer is.6.39pm: President Obama suddenly realises that David Cameron has never watched a basketball game before and is sick of explaining what a three pointer is.
8pm: Polls close in Alabama and Mississippi.8pm: Polls close in Alabama and Mississippi.
10pm: Both Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum gracefully withdraw from the GOP primaries and endorse Mitt Romney in a stirring call for party unity. Romney appears and hugs both men, saying "I love you guys." Then, a unicorn appears on stage.10pm: Both Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum gracefully withdraw from the GOP primaries and endorse Mitt Romney in a stirring call for party unity. Romney appears and hugs both men, saying "I love you guys." Then, a unicorn appears on stage.
*Note: events listed here may not match reality as currently understood.*Note: events listed here may not match reality as currently understood.
10am: Well here's some good news. Despite some rumbling to the contrary, it appears there will not be yet another Republican presidential debate next week.10am: Well here's some good news. Despite some rumbling to the contrary, it appears there will not be yet another Republican presidential debate next week.
I think I speak on behalf of a grateful nation and possibly the GOP when I say: awesome.I think I speak on behalf of a grateful nation and possibly the GOP when I say: awesome.
The Oregonian reports that Mitt Romney has turned down his invitation to the debate scheduled for next Monday – hardly a surprise but likely to be the death knell for any hopes of recycling some Portlandia jokes.The Oregonian reports that Mitt Romney has turned down his invitation to the debate scheduled for next Monday – hardly a surprise but likely to be the death knell for any hopes of recycling some Portlandia jokes.
9.30am: Another Tuesday, another set of primaries, and this time the focus is on the Deep South – Mississippi and Alabama, to be precise – where Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are running neck-and-neck in the polls.9.30am: Another Tuesday, another set of primaries, and this time the focus is on the Deep South – Mississippi and Alabama, to be precise – where Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are running neck-and-neck in the polls.
Polls are open in both states and will close tonight at 7pm EST – when we will be live blogging the results. Much later are caucuses in Hawaii and American Samoa but because of the time differences we'll be covering them tomorrow.Polls are open in both states and will close tonight at 7pm EST – when we will be live blogging the results. Much later are caucuses in Hawaii and American Samoa but because of the time differences we'll be covering them tomorrow.
Here's all you need to know from our reporter Ryan Devereaux:Here's all you need to know from our reporter Ryan Devereaux:
• Mitt Romney is hoping to clinch the nomination with wins in Mississippi and Alabama, where primary voters are heading to the polls today. Accomplishing the goal is easier said than done, however, as the candidates are locked in an exceedingly tight race. While Romney is regularly viewed as the candidate with the greatest potential to beat President Obama, the former Massachusetts governor has had a difficult time winning the hearts of southern conservatives. He is challenged by Rick Santorum, who is locked in a struggle to appear as socially conservative as possible, and Newt Gingrich, who was born in Georgia and has focused nearly all of his campaign energy on the region.• Mitt Romney is hoping to clinch the nomination with wins in Mississippi and Alabama, where primary voters are heading to the polls today. Accomplishing the goal is easier said than done, however, as the candidates are locked in an exceedingly tight race. While Romney is regularly viewed as the candidate with the greatest potential to beat President Obama, the former Massachusetts governor has had a difficult time winning the hearts of southern conservatives. He is challenged by Rick Santorum, who is locked in a struggle to appear as socially conservative as possible, and Newt Gingrich, who was born in Georgia and has focused nearly all of his campaign energy on the region.
• Today's contests come as new polls show President Obama's approval rating has dropped substantially. According to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, 41% of respondents approve of the job the president is doing, while 47% disapprove. The latest figures come just one month after the president managed a critical 50% approval rating. Rising gas prices, escalating tensions regarding war with Iran and major security setbacks in Afghanistan are believed to have contributed to the president's sudden drop in popularity.• Today's contests come as new polls show President Obama's approval rating has dropped substantially. According to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, 41% of respondents approve of the job the president is doing, while 47% disapprove. The latest figures come just one month after the president managed a critical 50% approval rating. Rising gas prices, escalating tensions regarding war with Iran and major security setbacks in Afghanistan are believed to have contributed to the president's sudden drop in popularity.
• Meanwhile, a new poll from Public Policy Polling adds a whole new dimension to the question of how some Americans view the president. According to PPP, 45% of Republican respondents in Alabama think President Obama is a Muslim, while in Mississippi that number is 52%. In Alabama, 60% of respondents don't believe in evolution, and in Mississippi 66% don't. It turns out Rick Santorum is the most popular candidate among evolution-deniers, while Newt Gingrich has the majority of the support from those who believe interracial marriage should be illegal.• Meanwhile, a new poll from Public Policy Polling adds a whole new dimension to the question of how some Americans view the president. According to PPP, 45% of Republican respondents in Alabama think President Obama is a Muslim, while in Mississippi that number is 52%. In Alabama, 60% of respondents don't believe in evolution, and in Mississippi 66% don't. It turns out Rick Santorum is the most popular candidate among evolution-deniers, while Newt Gingrich has the majority of the support from those who believe interracial marriage should be illegal.
• In his never-ending quest to seem like a regular guy, Mitt Romney toured Alabama with Southern comedian Jeff Foxworthy. Famous for his "You might be a redneck if …" jokes, Foxworthy tried to help Romney make light of himself. At one point on Monday, Romney quipped that he hoped to set out with an Alabama friend who "can actually show me which end of the rifle to point." Ever his own worst enemy in efforts to seem normal, however, Romney managed to tell a radio show host that "good friends" of his own NFL teams. Last month the former governor caught flak for saying some of his friends own Nascar teams.• In his never-ending quest to seem like a regular guy, Mitt Romney toured Alabama with Southern comedian Jeff Foxworthy. Famous for his "You might be a redneck if …" jokes, Foxworthy tried to help Romney make light of himself. At one point on Monday, Romney quipped that he hoped to set out with an Alabama friend who "can actually show me which end of the rifle to point." Ever his own worst enemy in efforts to seem normal, however, Romney managed to tell a radio show host that "good friends" of his own NFL teams. Last month the former governor caught flak for saying some of his friends own Nascar teams.