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China ousts Bo Xilai as Chongqing party boss China ousts Bo Xilai as Chongqing party boss
(about 11 hours later)
The biggest political drama in years has erupted months ahead of China's once-in-a-decade leadership transition, with the ousting of a colourful political contender as chief of a major city.The biggest political drama in years has erupted months ahead of China's once-in-a-decade leadership transition, with the ousting of a colourful political contender as chief of a major city.
State news agency Xinhua announced Bo Xilai's removal as Chongqing party secretary in a one-sentence statement on Thursday morning, hours after premier Wen Jiabao took a thinly veiled swipe at him.State news agency Xinhua announced Bo Xilai's removal as Chongqing party secretary in a one-sentence statement on Thursday morning, hours after premier Wen Jiabao took a thinly veiled swipe at him.
Bo, a complex and divisive figure, had been tipped to join China's top political body in this autumn's power transition, until a scandal broke involving his former ally and police chief, Wang Lijun. "After Wang Lijun's case, he should have resigned himself. But he didn't want to and instead fought back with a high profile," said political scientist Zhang Ming of Renmin University. Bo, a complex and divisive figure, had been tipped to join China's top political body in this autumn's power transition, until a scandal broke involving his former ally and police chief, Wang Lijun, who fled to the US consulate in Chengdu last month, amid rumours of a corruption investigation and a rift with Bo.
"Considering Bo's attitude, it's possible that the transition would have difficulties [without his removal] …It shows there are still people supporting him, but Wang Lijun's case makes them unable to say anything. "After Wang Lijun's case, Bo should have resigned himself. But he didn't want to and instead fought back with a high profile," said political scientist Zhang Ming of Renmin University.
"Bo was really the only politician since 1978 to trumpet his own movement independently of the party centre. That must have alarmed other senior figures in the party, suggesting he was someone who could upset the political equilibrium," said Victor Shih, an expert on elite politics at Northwestern University. "Considering Bo's attitude, it's possible that the transition would have difficulties [without his removal] …It shows there are still people supporting him, but Wang Lijun's case makes them unable to say anything."
In the end, the party chose to knife the charismatic politician on the Ides of March. "Bo was really the only politician since 1978 to trumpet his own movement independently of the party centre. That must have alarmed other senior figures in the party, suggesting he was someone who could upset the political equilibrium," said Victor Shih, an expert on elite politics at Northwestern University.
"Certainly, this is the biggest sign of political conflict we have seen since the removal of Chen Liangyu as party secretary of Shanghai [in 2006].""Certainly, this is the biggest sign of political conflict we have seen since the removal of Chen Liangyu as party secretary of Shanghai [in 2006]."
Xi Jinping will almost certainly become general secretary this autumn - and then president of China — while Li Keqiang is expected to become premier. Xi Jinping will almost certainly become general secretary this autumn – and then president of China – while Li Keqiang is expected to become premier.
But Cheng Li of the Brookings Institution said the prospect of Bo rising to the Politburo standing committee had still caused alarm.But Cheng Li of the Brookings Institution said the prospect of Bo rising to the Politburo standing committee had still caused alarm.
"China is ruled by collective leadership and Xi Jinping is only first among equals. To some extent, if the standing committee see a crisis in the country and the top leaders cannot handle it, other leaders will seize the moment. Bo Xilai's ambitions would not stop at the standing committee," he said."China is ruled by collective leadership and Xi Jinping is only first among equals. To some extent, if the standing committee see a crisis in the country and the top leaders cannot handle it, other leaders will seize the moment. Bo Xilai's ambitions would not stop at the standing committee," he said.
Bo earned a reputation as an ambitious and effective leader in Dalian, northern China. Once promoted to the Chongqing post he launched "sing red and strike black" campaigns — promoting "red culture" and cracking down on organised crime — which grabbed national attention. Bo earned a reputation as an ambitious and effective leader in Dalian, northern China. Once promoted to the Chongqing post, he launched "sing red and strike black" campaigns – promoting "red culture" and cracking down on organised crime – which grabbed national attention.
Many applauded the anti-crime drive for making the city safer, but others complained it trampled over the law.Many applauded the anti-crime drive for making the city safer, but others complained it trampled over the law.
"There are two groups of people who really don't like him: The political elite, for various reasons; and liberal intellectuals, because of the cultural revolution style elements of his movement," said Li. "There are two groups of people who really don't like him: the political elite, for various reasons, and liberal intellectuals, because of the cultural revolution style elements of his movement," said Li.
Many suspected political manoeuvring was behind Wang's flight to the US consulate in Chengdu last month, amid rumours of a corruption investigation and a rift with Bo. Many suspected political manoeuvring was behind Wang's flight. He is now under investigation and Xinhua confirmed he was no longer vice-mayor of Chongqing.
Wang is under investigation and Xinhua confirmed on Thursday he was no longer vice-mayor of Chongqing.
Bo fought back last week in a press conference at the annual session of the National People's Congress, China's rubber stamp parliament, saying Wang's was an isolated case and adding that he was not under investigation himself.Bo fought back last week in a press conference at the annual session of the National People's Congress, China's rubber stamp parliament, saying Wang's was an isolated case and adding that he was not under investigation himself.
But on Wednesday the premier used his annual press conference to chide Bo, saying the Chongqing party leadership needed to learn lessons from the case. But the premier used his annual press conference on Wednesday to chide Bo, saying the Chongqing party leadership needed to learn lessons from the case. Vice-premier Zhang Dejiang, who, like Bo is a "princeling" – the son of a key party figure – will replace Bo and keep his current portfolio. Zhang has enjoyed the patronage of former president Jiang Zemin.
Xinhua news agency said vice-premier Zhang Dejiang will replace Bo and keep his current portfolio. Like Bo, Zhang is another "princeling" — the son of a key party figure — who has enjoyed the patronage of former president Jiang Zemin. Shih said the choice of Zhang suggested a major investigation into Bo was unlikely, adding: "I suspect Bo Xilai still has considerable support in the party and more importantly the military so opponents are not able to go their way."
Shih said that a major investigation into Bo was unlikely, adding: "I suspect Bo Xilai still has considerable support in the party and more importantly the military so opponents are not able to go their way."
Independent Beijing-based journalist Li Datong said Bo's political life was over, adding: "He will probably be granted some idle position, like deputy chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference or the NPC."Independent Beijing-based journalist Li Datong said Bo's political life was over, adding: "He will probably be granted some idle position, like deputy chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference or the NPC."
But Cheng Li, a political analyst at the Brookings Institution, said making the announcement immediately after the NPC suggested a Beijing-based inquiry might be under way already, albeit perhaps for a minor offence such as poor judgement in personnel. But Cheng Li, a political analyst at the Brookings Institution, said the decision to make the announcement immediately after the NPC suggested a Beijing-based inquiry might be under way already, albeit perhaps for a minor offence such as poor judgement in personnel.
"There is a possibility he might not return to Chongqing because he may be under investigation in Beijing," surmised Li. "There is a possibility he might not return to Chongqing because he may be under investigation in Beijing," said Li.
David Kelly, of research and information consultancy China Policy, suggested Xi Jinping wanted to ensure an uneventful inauguration. Bo's political demise has been played out in strikingly public fashion in a system that relies on censorship to conceal differences and protect its image of unity. The widespread discussion of the Wang Lijun incident and its fallout on Sina's Weibo microblog suggested that at least some senior figures were happy to see Bo's problems aired.
"It was probably better to pay now whatever political price there is for taking the populist contender off the board," he said. Rumours of his firing began circulating on Weibo more than an hour before the official announcement. By Thursday night, Weibo searches for the name of his wife, Gu Kailai, returned a message saying results could not be shown due to regulations. It was not clear why searches for Gu, a prominent lawyer and the daughter of another Communist veteran, should be sensitive. During his press conference last week, Bo complained that critics had "poured filth" on him and his family.
Kelly noted that the "Chongqing model" was more complex than the attention-grabbing campaigns suggested, with a focus on social justice, but added that it existed before Bo's arrival. There was a mix of celebration and lamentation among microbloggers at Bo's fall.
"He was brought in to break a deadlock, since the innovations were not going very well because of local resistance … He is a high risk-taker," he said. "Haha, Bo Xilai is finally down  … Support Wen, support the reformists. The cultural revolution should not be restored," wrote one user.
"The lesson would be not to take risks. And that's not really what was hoped for, because you do need a circuit-breaker."
Rumours of Bo's firing began circulating on Sina's Weibo microblog before the official announcement. Once confirmed it quickly became the top topic, with both celebration and lamentation of his fall: "Haha, Bo Xilai is finally down  … Support Wen, support the reformists. The cultural revolution should not be restored," wrote one user.
But a staunch defender wrote: "The victim of political struggles! The Communist party of China is the largest gangster in the world."But a staunch defender wrote: "The victim of political struggles! The Communist party of China is the largest gangster in the world."
David Kelly, of research and information consultancy China Policy, noted that the "Chongqing model" was more complex than the attention-grabbing campaigns suggested, with a focus on social justice, but added that it existed before Bo's arrival.
"He was brought in to break a deadlock, since the innovations were not going very well because of local resistance ... He is a high risk-taker," Kelly said. "The lesson would be not to take risks. And that's not really what was hoped for, because you do need a circuit-breaker."
"We can only say goodbye to Uncle Bo, the one that Chongqing people support!" noted another."We can only say goodbye to Uncle Bo, the one that Chongqing people support!" noted another.