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Illinois Republican primary: panel view	Illinois Republican primary: panel view
2012-03-20 14:50:04 UTC	2012-03-20 15:30:05 UTC (40 minutes later)
Sam Pierce: 'Rick Santorum has generated some momentum'	Sam Pierce: 'Rick Santorum has generated some momentum'
Clay County, Illinois – Rasmussen has Mitt Romney leading Rick Santorum in Illinois by nine points. This shows an obvious edge for Romney in this blue state, but I don't think the Romney campaign should be too impressed with its effort. The state, which is dominated by Chicago and sent Barack Obama to the US Senate, should be an easy win for the most liberal or "moderate" candidate in the race. The slam-dunk for Romney should be made inevitable by the long-term efforts of Illinois Treasurer Dan Rutherford and the backing of those Republicans to whom observers refer as "establishment".	Clay County, Illinois – Rasmussen has Mitt Romney leading Rick Santorum in Illinois by nine points. This shows an obvious edge for Romney in this blue state, but I don't think the Romney campaign should be too impressed with its effort. The state, which is dominated by Chicago and sent Barack Obama to the US Senate, should be an easy win for the most liberal or "moderate" candidate in the race. The slam-dunk for Romney should be made inevitable by the long-term efforts of Illinois Treasurer Dan Rutherford and the backing of those Republicans to whom observers refer as "establishment".
Why isn't Romney enjoying a larger lead in this blue state? Why was his campaign compelled to schedule several stops over the last couple of days prior to polling on Tuesday? It would appear that Rick Santorum has generated some momentum and the Romney campaign has found it necessary to respond, or risk losing what should have been a non-contest.	Why isn't Romney enjoying a larger lead in this blue state? Why was his campaign compelled to schedule several stops over the last couple of days prior to polling on Tuesday? It would appear that Rick Santorum has generated some momentum and the Romney campaign has found it necessary to respond, or risk losing what should have been a non-contest.
The last-minute Illinois campaign stops might be overshadowed by the Romney campaign's other response to Santorum's rise, the annoying robocall. I'm not a political strategist, but it is hard to imagine that voters do not respond more negatively to the campaign making the calls than they do to the subject of the calls, once the volume of calls reaches a certain number. Several calls a day, even in rural southern Illinois, seems to be an indication of desperation.	The last-minute Illinois campaign stops might be overshadowed by the Romney campaign's other response to Santorum's rise, the annoying robocall. I'm not a political strategist, but it is hard to imagine that voters do not respond more negatively to the campaign making the calls than they do to the subject of the calls, once the volume of calls reaches a certain number. Several calls a day, even in rural southern Illinois, seems to be an indication of desperation.
The sentiment in southern Illinois seems disparate, with some support for Ron Paul, some for Newt Gingrich, and some for Santorum. If Romney has support, it does not appear to extend beyond those who are elected Republican office-holders. The unfortunate X-factor is the apathy that embodies the largest portion of the electorate. Too many citizens of voting age do not even know the names of most of the candidates, or anything about them beyond the ads.	The sentiment in southern Illinois seems disparate, with some support for Ron Paul, some for Newt Gingrich, and some for Santorum. If Romney has support, it does not appear to extend beyond those who are elected Republican office-holders. The unfortunate X-factor is the apathy that embodies the largest portion of the electorate. Too many citizens of voting age do not even know the names of most of the candidates, or anything about them beyond the ads.
Apathy and ignorance may prove to be a friend of the Romney campaign on Tuesday. If it is, it may also prove to benefit the Obama campaign in November.	Apathy and ignorance may prove to be a friend of the Romney campaign on Tuesday. If it is, it may also prove to benefit the Obama campaign in November.
Sam Pierce is a Tea Party activist and blogger	Sam Pierce is a Tea Party activist and blogger
Fran Eaton: 'Republicans offer little when it comes to fresh and bold ideas'	Fran Eaton: 'Republicans offer little when it comes to fresh and bold ideas'
Southwest Cook County, Illinois – The part of Cook County that is south-west of Chicago is a mixture of white-collar professionals and blue-collar tradespeople who both work very hard at paying their mortgages and taxes, as well as filling their mini-van and SUV gas tanks. Children and schools are the center of the communities for most, while Catholic and evangelical churches provide gathering places on Sundays. The issue of jobs and the economy dominates most political discourse, followed by the growing burden of taxes on property and income, the rising energy costs and scary healthcare demands.	Southwest Cook County, Illinois – The part of Cook County that is south-west of Chicago is a mixture of white-collar professionals and blue-collar tradespeople who both work very hard at paying their mortgages and taxes, as well as filling their mini-van and SUV gas tanks. Children and schools are the center of the communities for most, while Catholic and evangelical churches provide gathering places on Sundays. The issue of jobs and the economy dominates most political discourse, followed by the growing burden of taxes on property and income, the rising energy costs and scary healthcare demands.
Republicans used to dominate the south-western suburbs, but over the years, as union members outnumbered professionals and business owners, Democrats gained dominance. Still, there's an attachment to tradition, the family and the influence of the Church on both. Anti-establishment movements are more in the form of city council public appeals than angry, organized protests. People are concerned about their personal and children's futures. They are individualistic and reject government intrusion. They push for freedom and liberty.	Republicans used to dominate the south-western suburbs, but over the years, as union members outnumbered professionals and business owners, Democrats gained dominance. Still, there's an attachment to tradition, the family and the influence of the Church on both. Anti-establishment movements are more in the form of city council public appeals than angry, organized protests. People are concerned about their personal and children's futures. They are individualistic and reject government intrusion. They push for freedom and liberty.
The Tea Party movement launched several freedom-seeking networks in the area, but for most, politics is too confusing and distasteful to spend much time on. Kids are waiting for dinner and to be picked up, hubby's boss needs him to stay overtime, neighbors' dog is barking far too long and too often, and food and fuel are stealing away any hope of a new pair of shoes for Johnnie this month.	The Tea Party movement launched several freedom-seeking networks in the area, but for most, politics is too confusing and distasteful to spend much time on. Kids are waiting for dinner and to be picked up, hubby's boss needs him to stay overtime, neighbors' dog is barking far too long and too often, and food and fuel are stealing away any hope of a new pair of shoes for Johnnie this month.
President Obama's hope and change message has flopped here. His vision for a better America was different than theirs. Yet, Republicans offer little when it comes to fresh and bold ideas. They're too focused on smearing each other and elbowing their way into the front. That's a huge turnoff and puts a wet blanket on any enthusiasm that is unexpectedly sparked here.	President Obama's hope and change message has flopped here. His vision for a better America was different than theirs. Yet, Republicans offer little when it comes to fresh and bold ideas. They're too focused on smearing each other and elbowing their way into the front. That's a huge turnoff and puts a wet blanket on any enthusiasm that is unexpectedly sparked here.
Whoever the Republicans pick had better get short, articulate and hopeful talking points ready to go. It's going to be a long hot summer in Illinois and the south-west suburbs, and Barack Obama's GOP opponent's message could resonate here.	Whoever the Republicans pick had better get short, articulate and hopeful talking points ready to go. It's going to be a long hot summer in Illinois and the south-west suburbs, and Barack Obama's GOP opponent's message could resonate here.
Fran Eaton is editor of the Illinois Review	Fran Eaton is editor of the Illinois Review
~~Matt ~~Gaunt:~~ 'The frontrunner has barely tried to act conservative'~~	Matt Gauntt: 'The frontrunner has barely tried to act conservative'
Kane County, Illinois – Two months ago, few expected the focus of the GOP presidential primary to shine on the state of Illinois. With all the excitement, the collective response from Illinois primary voters has been …	Kane County, Illinois – Two months ago, few expected the focus of the GOP presidential primary to shine on the state of Illinois. With all the excitement, the collective response from Illinois primary voters has been …
Yawn.	Yawn.
Aside from a couple of well-publicized rallies, there is little sign that Illinois voters are excited and connected to the race.	Aside from a couple of well-publicized rallies, there is little sign that Illinois voters are excited and connected to the race.
Throughout the western suburbs, early voting is significantly lower than previous years. My observation is that voters have been stalling because they are still undecided – and I don't blame them. The frontrunner has barely tried to act conservative, and the second-place candidate is a solid social conservative but has shown little resistance to big spending in the past.	Throughout the western suburbs, early voting is significantly lower than previous years. My observation is that voters have been stalling because they are still undecided – and I don't blame them. The frontrunner has barely tried to act conservative, and the second-place candidate is a solid social conservative but has shown little resistance to big spending in the past.
If the frontrunners don't excite you, the alternatives are the former House speaker who can't quit cheating on wives and a congressman with few accomplishments except for publishing a newsletter known for racist rants and kook theories.	If the frontrunners don't excite you, the alternatives are the former House speaker who can't quit cheating on wives and a congressman with few accomplishments except for publishing a newsletter known for racist rants and kook theories.
In 1976, Mickey Gilley released the song "The girls all get prettier at closing time." Even though it's closing time, the candidates aren't getting any prettier.	In 1976, Mickey Gilley released the song "The girls all get prettier at closing time." Even though it's closing time, the candidates aren't getting any prettier.
The trouble for the GOP came early in the primary season. Many pundits had the opinion that no matter the nominee, Obama didn't stand a chance. Consequently, we had more candidates than Imelda Marcos had shoes. As the field winnowed, the remaining alternatives to Romney were not necessarily the best candidates, but the ones with the most stamina.	The trouble for the GOP came early in the primary season. Many pundits had the opinion that no matter the nominee, Obama didn't stand a chance. Consequently, we had more candidates than Imelda Marcos had shoes. As the field winnowed, the remaining alternatives to Romney were not necessarily the best candidates, but the ones with the most stamina.
Although Romney should be sealing the deal, his primary problem with voters is that he doesn't connect. How can the head of a middle-class family feel any connection with a man, who when asked if he followed Nascar said that he knows some team owners.	Although Romney should be sealing the deal, his primary problem with voters is that he doesn't connect. How can the head of a middle-class family feel any connection with a man, who when asked if he followed Nascar said that he knows some team owners.
Santorum has not provided an acceptable alternative. A former senator who lost his last race by 18%, the largest amount for an incumbent since 1980, doesn't inspire confidence. With a debt quickly approaching 100% of GDP, his previous votes on spending don't inspire confidence either.	Santorum has not provided an acceptable alternative. A former senator who lost his last race by 18%, the largest amount for an incumbent since 1980, doesn't inspire confidence. With a debt quickly approaching 100% of GDP, his previous votes on spending don't inspire confidence either.
Is it too late to ask for a Mulligan?	Is it too late to ask for a Mulligan?
~~Matt ~~Gaunt~~ is active in civic groups and is a contributor to statewide conservative blogs~~	Matt Gauntt is active in civic groups and is a contributor to statewide conservative blogs
John Di Leo: 'Illinois Republicans still identify with Ronald Reagan'	John Di Leo: 'Illinois Republicans still identify with Ronald Reagan'
Suburban Cook County, Illinois – Despite its association with the nation's first Republican president, Abraham Lincoln, this state has been thought of as a Democratic stronghold for decades, largely because of machine-held Chicago up in the corner. But this state also elected Republican governors for 26 years straight. Stereotypes of Illinois are usually wrong.	Suburban Cook County, Illinois – Despite its association with the nation's first Republican president, Abraham Lincoln, this state has been thought of as a Democratic stronghold for decades, largely because of machine-held Chicago up in the corner. But this state also elected Republican governors for 26 years straight. Stereotypes of Illinois are usually wrong.
Illinois was briefly the home of civil war General Ulysses S Grant, and long the adopted home of Abraham Lincoln, and Barack Obama, but the only president actually born and raised here was Ronald Reagan. Reagan is the one with whom Illinois Republicans still identify, though he left for California in his mid-twenties. Still, every four years, Illinois Republicans try to hold new candidates to their hero's standard.	Illinois was briefly the home of civil war General Ulysses S Grant, and long the adopted home of Abraham Lincoln, and Barack Obama, but the only president actually born and raised here was Ronald Reagan. Reagan is the one with whom Illinois Republicans still identify, though he left for California in his mid-twenties. Still, every four years, Illinois Republicans try to hold new candidates to their hero's standard.
Here, the electorate votes two ways: first, in a meaningless "beauty contest" for the candidates' own names, then, a page later, for specific delegates.	Here, the electorate votes two ways: first, in a meaningless "beauty contest" for the candidates' own names, then, a page later, for specific delegates.
Across Illinois, each candidate runs a different slate of potential delegates, district by district. But these are congressional districts, with boundaries drawn by the Democrats, so as to elect more Democrats to Congress. These districts are weighted unevenly – a tactic we call gerrymandering. While the districts are theoretically equivalent in raw population, they are disproportionate in make-up. Districts that elect Republicans to Congress, therefore, may have the most moderate Republicans, while districts in which the Republicans are a minority may, in fact, be the most conservative in primary season – or vice versa. It's difficult to predict.	Across Illinois, each candidate runs a different slate of potential delegates, district by district. But these are congressional districts, with boundaries drawn by the Democrats, so as to elect more Democrats to Congress. These districts are weighted unevenly – a tactic we call gerrymandering. While the districts are theoretically equivalent in raw population, they are disproportionate in make-up. Districts that elect Republicans to Congress, therefore, may have the most moderate Republicans, while districts in which the Republicans are a minority may, in fact, be the most conservative in primary season – or vice versa. It's difficult to predict.
The eventual victors depend on much more than just campaign momentum. They depend on which candidate's voters understand the process and keep going past the beauty contest, and on whether other "down-ballot" races for legislative or county offices will draw greater turnouts in one region or another. Most of all, it all depends on how and where the Democrats drew their maps, without ever thinking of how their map would affect this day.	The eventual victors depend on much more than just campaign momentum. They depend on which candidate's voters understand the process and keep going past the beauty contest, and on whether other "down-ballot" races for legislative or county offices will draw greater turnouts in one region or another. Most of all, it all depends on how and where the Democrats drew their maps, without ever thinking of how their map would affect this day.
John F Di Leo is a columnist for the Illinois Review	John F Di Leo is a columnist for the Illinois Review
Gretchen Lippitt: 'The voters didn't fall in love but decided to fall in line'	Gretchen Lippitt: 'The voters didn't fall in love but decided to fall in line'
Suburban Chicago, Illinois – After some short-lived flirtations, the suburban Chicago Republican romcom (romantic comedy or Romney comedy, your choice) is just about over. It's the usual story of the reliable but boring boyfriend, been around for years, not a lot of passion or excitement. Some new guys in town passionately declared eternal fidelity to conservative values, but any early infatuation ended in the realization that while they might talk a good game, their goals are different – and four years is a long time to be stuck with someone.	Suburban Chicago, Illinois – After some short-lived flirtations, the suburban Chicago Republican romcom (romantic comedy or Romney comedy, your choice) is just about over. It's the usual story of the reliable but boring boyfriend, been around for years, not a lot of passion or excitement. Some new guys in town passionately declared eternal fidelity to conservative values, but any early infatuation ended in the realization that while they might talk a good game, their goals are different – and four years is a long time to be stuck with someone.
The voters didn't fall in love but decided to fall in line, settling for the guy who seems to share their vision of a fiscally secure future for themselves and their children. It's what they do.	The voters didn't fall in love but decided to fall in line, settling for the guy who seems to share their vision of a fiscally secure future for themselves and their children. It's what they do.
North and north-west suburban Republicans tend to be fiscal conservatives first, while some in the western suburbs tend to be social conservatives first. Fiscals are much more numerous, even though the Socials are louder. Fiscals want limits on government interference and were appalled by Santorum's zeal for enforcement of his social ideals. They may have agreed with Santorum that Obama was interfering with the role of the family, but they were shocked by Santorum's alternative. They still aren't totally sure where Romney stands, but they're convinced he stands closer to them.	North and north-west suburban Republicans tend to be fiscal conservatives first, while some in the western suburbs tend to be social conservatives first. Fiscals are much more numerous, even though the Socials are louder. Fiscals want limits on government interference and were appalled by Santorum's zeal for enforcement of his social ideals. They may have agreed with Santorum that Obama was interfering with the role of the family, but they were shocked by Santorum's alternative. They still aren't totally sure where Romney stands, but they're convinced he stands closer to them.
Sit out the primary? Not likely. These Republicans may limit their activism to fundraisers and meet-the-candidate coffees with friends and neighbors, but they conscientiously vote. The Tea Party candidates in 2010 tried another route, won some elections, and then ignored the party leadership, including House speaker John Boehner, and went their own way. Their approval ratings have dropped. They may blame their upcoming losses on redistricting, but the truth is they acted less like Reagan and more like Bonzo.	Sit out the primary? Not likely. These Republicans may limit their activism to fundraisers and meet-the-candidate coffees with friends and neighbors, but they conscientiously vote. The Tea Party candidates in 2010 tried another route, won some elections, and then ignored the party leadership, including House speaker John Boehner, and went their own way. Their approval ratings have dropped. They may blame their upcoming losses on redistricting, but the truth is they acted less like Reagan and more like Bonzo.