Mitt Romney's Illinois romp adds inevitability to weary Republican race

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/mar/21/mitt-romney-illinois-primary-inevitable-race

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Mitt Romney is in near certainty to secure the Republican nomination to take on Barack Obama in November after victory in the Illinois primary decisively tipped the balance in his favour.

Although there are 23 contests still to go, the overwhelming majority of these suit Romney better than his main rival Rick Santorum. Illinois was effectively Santorum's last chance to alter the course of the race and he not only lost but lost by a double-digit margin.

One of his senior campaign staff described as insurmountable the gap between himself and Santorum in terms of delegates to the party convention in Florida in August where the Republican nominee will be formally chosen.

Although race is set to drag on for weeks yet, there is a sense of inevitability about the outcome that has seen US media operations begin this week to scale back their coverage.

The sense of weariness was picked up in exit polls in Illinois, with about 30% of voters saying they would prefer to see the race over, even if it meant their candidate did not win.

Romney, after beating Santorum by only narrow margins in states such as Ohio and Michigan, finally won the unqualified victory he had been looking for, beating Santorum by 47% to 35% in Illinois. His other remaining rivals have faded from the race and this was reflected in their votes, with Ron Paul on 9% and Newt Gingrich on 8%.

In his victory speech on the outskirts of Chicago, Romney said: "It's time to say these words. This word: enough. We've had enough." His words were directed at Obama but may also have easily been directed at – or even meant for – Santorum.

Romney has resisted calling openly for Santorum to quit the race, allowing his wife Ann and his campaign staff to do so instead, arguing that a long race helps the Democratic party.

In spite of outspending Santorum in advertising in Illinois and other states by ratios of at least seven to one, with some estimates much higher, Romney's campaign chest shows no sign of diminishing. Newly-released campaign figures, required by law, showed he raised $12.5m in February, his best month for fundraising yet, the bulk of it from big donors. Only one in 11 dollars came from people donating $200 or less. Romney spent $12.3m in February, most of it on advertising.

Santorum, who has been fighting on a relatively small budget, took in $2.5m in February. He has been campaigning in an old-fashioned way, getting out and about talking with voters, surrounded by, until recently, a small team.

Santorum is out to keep the campaign going as long as possible to establish himself as the Republican candidate not for 2012 but 2016. Although he blames his failure to beat Romnney on the disparity in cash and the presence of Gingrich splitting the conservative vote, one of his biggest problems has been to expand support beyond the core of Christian evangelicals and social conservatives he attracted at the start of the campaign in Iowa.

Santorum opted to hold his election night party Tuesday in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, rather than in Illinois, saying it was a tribute to Lincoln and the Gettysburg Address. But it was also the scene of the decisive battle of the Civil War, the turning-point.

Santorum, though, shows no sign of being anywhere close to pulling out. He is almost certain to win Louisiana at the weekend – Romney has failed to win a state in the deep south – but after that the calendar looks bleak for him, with a slew of contests on April 3 and then a three-week pause in the middle of the month that will drain even more energy from the campaign.

At his Gettysburg party, he was defiant: "We're heading to Louisiana for the rest of the week, then we're back here in Pennsylvania and we're going to pick up a whole boatload of delegates and close this gap and then on to victory."

Santorum, Gingrich and Paul cling to the idea that Romney will be unable to reach the magic number of 1,144 delegates, a majority of the convention. In that case, they argue it would have to be a brokered convention, with all the uncertainty and drama that would entail. Romney's Illinois victory makes that less likely.

Former Mississippi governor Haley Barbour, a senior Republican who commands wide respect within the party, said even if Romney was to fall short of the 1,144, he would still win the nomination.

"I think it's very unlikely we'll go to the convention with an open nomination," Barbour told Politico. "The most likely outcome is that somebody will have a hot streak in the next few weeks and will get to 1,144 by June. Even if they come close to 1,144, there will be such a coalescence around them that the party will pull around."<br />