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Hong Kong election: all bets off after frontrunner's calamitous campaign Hong Kong election: all bets off after frontrunner's calamitous campaign
(about 4 hours later)
It is supposed to be one of the world's more crafty exercises in choreographed democracy, when Hong Kong's elite comes together to choose the person that Beijing wants to run the territory for the next five years.It is supposed to be one of the world's more crafty exercises in choreographed democracy, when Hong Kong's elite comes together to choose the person that Beijing wants to run the territory for the next five years.
But Sunday's "election", in which 1,200 hand-picked business and community leaders select the new leader, has turned into a startling exercise in almost open politics. A former top civil servant, Henry Tang Ying-yen, was the shoo-in candidate, Beijing's choice for the top job of chief executive. But the result has been thrown into doubt by the frontrunner's inability to avoid putting his foot in it.But Sunday's "election", in which 1,200 hand-picked business and community leaders select the new leader, has turned into a startling exercise in almost open politics. A former top civil servant, Henry Tang Ying-yen, was the shoo-in candidate, Beijing's choice for the top job of chief executive. But the result has been thrown into doubt by the frontrunner's inability to avoid putting his foot in it.
Clumsy admissions of adultery and illegal construction have raised questions about governance in Hong Kong. His latest effort to attack his opponent was based on the leaking of secret government discussions – perhaps the worst sin of all for his mainland backers.Clumsy admissions of adultery and illegal construction have raised questions about governance in Hong Kong. His latest effort to attack his opponent was based on the leaking of secret government discussions – perhaps the worst sin of all for his mainland backers.
With just a few days to go, some election committee members said they were being told by Beijing to drop Tang in favour of property surveyor Leung Chun-ying, who had been considered a makeweight candidate, there just to provide a veneer of competition.With just a few days to go, some election committee members said they were being told by Beijing to drop Tang in favour of property surveyor Leung Chun-ying, who had been considered a makeweight candidate, there just to provide a veneer of competition.
Now the outcome is considered wildly unpredictable, after the unprecedented intrusion of public opinion into a process that Beijing used to control.Now the outcome is considered wildly unpredictable, after the unprecedented intrusion of public opinion into a process that Beijing used to control.
Although the Beijing officials overseeing Hong Kong have long nurtured its corporate titans as their closest allies, a growing awareness that there is more to Hong Kong society has prompted signs of a shift. China's premier, Wen Jiabao, said recently in Beijing that Hong Kong "can elect a chief executive who is supported by the majority of the people".Although the Beijing officials overseeing Hong Kong have long nurtured its corporate titans as their closest allies, a growing awareness that there is more to Hong Kong society has prompted signs of a shift. China's premier, Wen Jiabao, said recently in Beijing that Hong Kong "can elect a chief executive who is supported by the majority of the people".
But Asia's richest man, Li Ka-shing, known locally as Superman for his huge wealth and influence, unexpectedly commented on the election to the local media, restating his preference for Tang.But Asia's richest man, Li Ka-shing, known locally as Superman for his huge wealth and influence, unexpectedly commented on the election to the local media, restating his preference for Tang.
Many in the pro-democracy camp would prefer a Tang win partly to show how manipulated the whole process is, but also because they believe Leung is a member of the Chinese Communist party. Many in the pro-democracy camp want a Tang win partly to show how manipulated the whole process is, but also because they believe Leung belongs to the Chinese Communist party.
"None of them have the kind of charisma, momentum or energy that a chief executive should have," said Prof Cheng Kai-ming, a member of the election committee."None of them have the kind of charisma, momentum or energy that a chief executive should have," said Prof Cheng Kai-ming, a member of the election committee.
Hong Kong's seven million people do not vote for the leader. An independent referendum gauging public opinion was subverted on Friday by what organisers called "high-level cyber attacks". However, despite its inability to vote, the public has been unexpectedly riveted by the contest. Vigorous satire and news coverage, coupled with the candidates' unfamiliarity with the rough and tumble of real politics, has turned a staid selection into soap opera.Hong Kong's seven million people do not vote for the leader. An independent referendum gauging public opinion was subverted on Friday by what organisers called "high-level cyber attacks". However, despite its inability to vote, the public has been unexpectedly riveted by the contest. Vigorous satire and news coverage, coupled with the candidates' unfamiliarity with the rough and tumble of real politics, has turned a staid selection into soap opera.
The once inoffensive Tang, a smiling man known to enjoy fine wine, has become the unlikely lightning rod. First, with his unhappy wife, Lisa Kuo Yu-chin, standing beside him, he admitted to an extramarital affair. Allegations of more affairs have since emerged and the probable existence of grownup illegitimate offspring.The once inoffensive Tang, a smiling man known to enjoy fine wine, has become the unlikely lightning rod. First, with his unhappy wife, Lisa Kuo Yu-chin, standing beside him, he admitted to an extramarital affair. Allegations of more affairs have since emerged and the probable existence of grownup illegitimate offspring.
Then came the revelation – that one of Tang's large homes boasted a massive illegal basement complex – that almost spelled the end of his candidacy. While running a government engaged in a crackdown on illegal structures, he appeared to be building one himself, allegedly complete with a swimming pool, whirlpool bath and wine cellar. Then came the revelation – that one of Tang's large homes boasted a massive illegal basement complex – which almost spelled the end of his candidacy. While running a government that was cracking down on illegal structures, he appeared to be building one himself, allegedly complete with pool, whirlpool bath and wine cellar. Marking the nadir of his campaign, Tang brought out his wife again, now in tears, and blamed her for the basement.
Marking the nadir of his campaign, Tang brought out his wife again, now in tears, and blamed her for the basement.
Only such a catalogue of errors could have propelled Leung into the role of people's favourite, pundits say. He has been nicknamed the dangerous, untrustworthy "wolf", in contrast to the inept and weak "pig" of Tang. He has batted off accusations of a conflict of interest on a construction bid and association with criminal triads.Only such a catalogue of errors could have propelled Leung into the role of people's favourite, pundits say. He has been nicknamed the dangerous, untrustworthy "wolf", in contrast to the inept and weak "pig" of Tang. He has batted off accusations of a conflict of interest on a construction bid and association with criminal triads.
"Tang is just a rich kid who's never really done anything, whereas Leung, even if people loathe him, is intelligent and articulate. He has a platform which appears to be addressing key issues of housing, pollution and the ageing population," said Philip Bowring, a political commentator."Tang is just a rich kid who's never really done anything, whereas Leung, even if people loathe him, is intelligent and articulate. He has a platform which appears to be addressing key issues of housing, pollution and the ageing population," said Philip Bowring, a political commentator.
The problem is that none of the options are good enough for an increasingly alert populace that, as Beijing has learned, has a tendency to hit the streets when it is unhappy.The problem is that none of the options are good enough for an increasingly alert populace that, as Beijing has learned, has a tendency to hit the streets when it is unhappy.
"There is no effective way of bringing forward future leaders in Hong Kong, but a way must be found before 2017," said Bowring, in a reference to a promised introduction of universal suffrage – or at least China's definition of it."There is no effective way of bringing forward future leaders in Hong Kong, but a way must be found before 2017," said Bowring, in a reference to a promised introduction of universal suffrage – or at least China's definition of it.
Trouble at the top
Trouble at the top
Tung Chee-hwa was Hong Kong's first postcolonial chief executive, but had to resign before the end of his second term amid accusations of incompetence and mass public protest, to be replaced by Donald Tsang in 2005.Tung Chee-hwa was Hong Kong's first postcolonial chief executive, but had to resign before the end of his second term amid accusations of incompetence and mass public protest, to be replaced by Donald Tsang in 2005.
His term ends in June and has been sullied by revelations about luxury trips he had taken with tycoons, and a cheap deal on a penthouse just across the border that he has since had to relinquish.His term ends in June and has been sullied by revelations about luxury trips he had taken with tycoons, and a cheap deal on a penthouse just across the border that he has since had to relinquish.
This time, election committee members have confessed to being undecided; some have even suggested offering blank ballots.This time, election committee members have confessed to being undecided; some have even suggested offering blank ballots.
If no candidate secures more than 600 of the 1,200 votes on offer, a second round could be called, with new candidates able to join. This would be an unprecedented admission by the vote's organisers, ie Beijing, of a loss of control over the process.If no candidate secures more than 600 of the 1,200 votes on offer, a second round could be called, with new candidates able to join. This would be an unprecedented admission by the vote's organisers, ie Beijing, of a loss of control over the process.