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Why Boris Johnson won't be breaking the Tube unions Why Boris Johnson won't 'break' the Tube unions
(40 minutes later)
Boris unveiled his transport policies in a subterranean niche of the Wellcome Collection building to rather few frissons of excitement from the assembled journalists. Perhaps this reveals us to be a shallow bunch. It was, essentially, a prudence overture, promising sober husbandry of public funds along with vigorous negotiation of the treasury for more of them. It might not have thrilled we hacks, but I imagine Boris is hoping it will make a winning contrast with what he was extremely eager to portray as Ken Livingstone's reckless abandon. Boris unveiled his transport policies in a subterranean niche of the Wellcome Collection building to rather few frissons of excitement from the assembled journalists. Perhaps this reveals us to be a shallow bunch. It was, essentially, a prudence overture, promising sober husbandry of public funds along with vigorous negotiation the the Treasury for more of them, and judicious investment. It might not have thrilled we hacks, but I imagine Boris is hoping it will make a winning contrast with what he was eager to portray as Ken Livingstone's reckless abandon.
There was a big pitch to the Tory candidate's strong suburban support in the form of a re-iterated promise to lobby for more control over commuter rail services, which, the document says, would enable a second term Mayor Johnson to improve efficiency and "hold down" fares. Ken Livingstone, whose own transport plans will be published soon, has already promised the same thing. Boris also pledge to "explore" expanding his cycle hire scheme to Bromley, Croydon, Hounslow, Kingston, Richmond and Romford. To mix metaphors somewhat, the man knows which side his vote bank is buttered on. There was a big pitch to the Tory candidate's strong suburban support in the form of a re-iterated promise to lobby for more control over commuter rail services, which, the document (pdf) says, would enable a second term Mayor Johnson to improve efficiency and "hold down" fares. Ken, whose own transport plans will be published soon, has already promised the same thing. Boris also pledged to "explore" expanding his cycle hire scheme to Bromley, Croydon, Hounslow, Kingston, Richmond and Romford. To mix metaphors somewhat, the man knows which side his vote bank is buttered on.
I imagine the manifesto's talk of "driverless trains" coming to the Underground is supposed to please much the same constituency and others too, though I left the event completely unshaken in my view that the arrival of this new generation of rolling stock will not have the effect of magically transforming Bob Crow and the other Tube union leaders into simpering, clawless pussy cats, as Boris's media supporters love to proclaim (see here and here). I imagine the manifesto's talk of "driverless trains" coming to the Underground is supposed to please much the same constituency and others too, though I left the event completely unshaken in my view that the arrival of this new generation of rolling stock will not have the effect of magically transforming Bob Crow and the other Tube union leaders into simpering, clawless pussy cats, as Boris's media supporters love to proclaim (see here and here).
Londoners could be forgiven for believing that a "driverless" Tube train will be one from which any trace of the RMT and ASLEF will be instantly purged, thereby liberating the capital from strike action for all time. In reality, the advent of trains that don't have human beings with a union cards sitting in cabs at the front end will also be the advent of trains that have human beings with union cards moving around inside the carriages making sure the doors are working, checking Oyster cards and so on. In fairness to Boris he made no such bellicose pronouncements and never has. Although if re-elected he'd continue campaigning for a change in the law so that strikes could only go ahead if at least 50% of union members took part in a ballot, he said, "My agenda is not to crush anybody, to bully anybody," over increasing automation.
In other words, "drivers" might be on the way out as part of a wider move towards increasing automation of the system - the substance of Boris's pledge on this is that the Northern Line upgrade will increase it from the current 30% to 48% - but "train captains" will be on the way in and they will be just as free as "drivers" to be in the RMT or ASLEF and take industrial action. Boris's manifesto contains no aspiration at all to prevent "train captains" from joining unions. Still, Londoners could be forgiven for believing that a "driverless" Tube train will be one from which any trace of the RMT and ASLEF will be instantly purged, thereby liberating the capital from strike action for all time. In reality, the advent of trains that don't have human beings with a union cards sitting in cabs at the front end will also be the advent of trains that have human beings with union cards moving around inside the carriages making sure the doors are working, checking Oyster cards and so on.
In other words, "drivers" might be on the way out as part of a wider move towards increasing automation of the system - the substance of Boris's pledge on this is that the Northern Line upgrade will enlarge automatic train control (ATC) of the overall system from the current 30% to 48% - but "train captains" will be on the way in and they will be just as free as "drivers" to be in the RMT or ASLEF and take industrial action. Boris's manifesto contains no aspiration at all to prevent "train captains" from joining unions.
In his speech, Boris explained that they would do the same job as the staff who work on the Docklands Light Railway. The RMT told me recently that the vast majority of these DLR staff are its members. They've also shown that they are willing to go on strike. Boris's manifesto says that "moving to automation on this scale...will reduce the bargaining power of the union bosses," but when I asked him to explain why this would be so, he told me he he'd be disappointed if the unions opposed the changes he has in mind - a perfectly good answer to a question I hadn't asked.In his speech, Boris explained that they would do the same job as the staff who work on the Docklands Light Railway. The RMT told me recently that the vast majority of these DLR staff are its members. They've also shown that they are willing to go on strike. Boris's manifesto says that "moving to automation on this scale...will reduce the bargaining power of the union bosses," but when I asked him to explain why this would be so, he told me he he'd be disappointed if the unions opposed the changes he has in mind - a perfectly good answer to a question I hadn't asked.
Will unionised "train captains" replacing unionised train "drivers" on one London Underground line by the end of 2014 mean fewer strikes? Sources at Transport for London have explained to me that the change would probably make it easier for management to lessen the impact of strike action, because it is easier to train replacements in the skills required to fill in for a train captain. But it was emphasised that's not the main reason for extending automatic train control technology. The real point is that enables trains to run closer together, which means increased frequency and passenger capacity. Will unionised "train captains" replacing unionised train "drivers" on one London Underground line by the end of 2014 mean fewer strikes? Sources at Transport for London have explained to me that the change would probably make it easier for management to lessen the impact of strike action, because it is easier to equip substitutes with the skills required to fill in for a train captain. But it was emphasised that's not the main reason for extending automatic train control technology. The real point is that enables trains to run closer together, which means increased frequency and passenger capacity.
Summary? Boris is about as likely to "break" the Tube unions with "driverless trains" as I am to break the London Marathon record in four weeks' time. And you should see the state of my knees.Summary? Boris is about as likely to "break" the Tube unions with "driverless trains" as I am to break the London Marathon record in four weeks' time. And you should see the state of my knees.
This post was augmented at 16:15