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| Version 0 | Version 1 |
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| Eurozone crisis live: Mario Monti claims crisis 'almost over' | Eurozone crisis live: Mario Monti claims crisis 'almost over' |
| (40 minutes later) | |
| 9.05am: Italian business confidence figures released in the last few minutes show that firms across Italy are slightly more optimistic about the future. | |
| ISTAT's business morale index inched up to 92.1 in March, up from February's two-year low of 91.7. Encouraging, but still a rather low figure that doesn't really back up Mario Monti's claim that the crisis is 'almost over'.... | |
| 8.55am: EU president Herman Van Rompuy has announced over Twitter that Europe will take a final decision on the size of its firewall by the end of this week: | |
| A decision on the adequacy of the #EFSF / #ESM firewall will be taken by the end of the week. #seoul | |
| — Herman Van Rompuy (@euHvR) March 28, 2012 | |
| The firewall is the top item for discussion at the meeting of eurozone finance ministers, which begin on Friday. | |
| 8.48am: Just breaking on the news wires -- Dutch finance minister Jan Kees de Jager has declined to comment on rumours that he threatend to resign if his government failed to cut its budget deficit to 3% of GDP in 2013 (as demanded under the new Fiscal Pact). | |
| Developing.... | |
| 8.31am: Mario Monti's claim that the euro crisis is almost over (see 8.17am) has been swiftly challenged in the City. | |
| Elisabeth Afseth of Investec pointed out that Italian bond yields hit their highest level of the month yesterday, with the 10-year ending 9 basis points higher at 5.11%. It's risen a little higher this morning, too. | |
| Afseth added that speculation that Portugal will need a second package of financial help will intensify through 2012, despite German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble stating yesterday that no further bailouts would be needed within the next three months. She said: | |
| Schäuble is most likely to be right in his prediction of no bailout in next 3 months, but that doesn't give me much confidence that the crisis is over. | |
| Chris Adams, the Financial Times's Markets Editor, said he was concerned that Monti's comments suggest EU leaders have become dangerously relaxed. | |
| A dollop of soothing balm from the ECB and Italy's Monti declares eurozone crisis "almost over". All I see is rising danger of complacency. | |
| — Chris Adams (@ChrisAdamsMKTS) March 28, 2012 | |
| That 'soothing balm' was the European Central Bank's offer of around €1 trillion in cheap loans, the 'Long Term Refinancing Operation'. LTRO, though, can only offer temporary relief to the eurozone. And indeed, there are fears that the ECB has simply stored up more problems for the future (by encouraging banks to take on too much risky sovereign debt, for example). | |
| 8.17am: Mario Monti struck an upbeat tone in Japan today, telling an audience in Tokyo that: | 8.17am: Mario Monti struck an upbeat tone in Japan today, telling an audience in Tokyo that: |
| The euro zone has gone through a huge crisis. | The euro zone has gone through a huge crisis. |
| I believe that this crisis is now almost over. | I believe that this crisis is now almost over. |
| Monti cited the agreement of Greece's second aid package, the austerity budget being drawn up in Spain, and his own work in Italy since taking power in November. | Monti cited the agreement of Greece's second aid package, the austerity budget being drawn up in Spain, and his own work in Italy since taking power in November. |
| Interestingly, Monti also pointed the finger of blame at Berlin and Paris for helping to create the crisis. He said Germany and France's failure to stick to the original fiscal rules had set a dangerously bad example to other countries. | Interestingly, Monti also pointed the finger of blame at Berlin and Paris for helping to create the crisis. He said Germany and France's failure to stick to the original fiscal rules had set a dangerously bad example to other countries. |
| AFP has the quotes from Monti: | |
| The story goes back to 2003 (and) the still almost infant life of the euro...It was in fact Germany and France that were loose concerning the public deficits and debts. | The story goes back to 2003 (and) the still almost infant life of the euro...It was in fact Germany and France that were loose concerning the public deficits and debts. |
| As readers may remember, neither country faced any sanctions for breaking the terms of the original Stability and Growth Pact (which said countries should not run deficits above 3%). And thus, the seeds for future excess deficits were sowed. As Monti put it: | |
| Of course if the father and mother of the eurozone are violating the rules, you could not expect .. (countries such as) Greece to be compliant. | Of course if the father and mother of the eurozone are violating the rules, you could not expect .. (countries such as) Greece to be compliant. |
| 8.09am: We've already had one piece of economic data this morning -- Paris's national statistics office has confirmed that the French economy grew by 0.2% in the final three months of 2011. | 8.09am: We've already had one piece of economic data this morning -- Paris's national statistics office has confirmed that the French economy grew by 0.2% in the final three months of 2011. |
| That means that France defied the wider economic gloom in Europe. The eurozone economy shrank by 0.3% during that quarter, with even Germany contracting (by 0.2%). | |
| 8.07am: Here's today's agenda. | 8.07am: Here's today's agenda. |
| The most significant economic data today may be the latest German inflation figures. Economists expect a small fall, to 2.3% this month from 2.5% in February. The UK GDP data will also be closely watched in the City. | The most significant economic data today may be the latest German inflation figures. Economists expect a small fall, to 2.3% this month from 2.5% in February. The UK GDP data will also be closely watched in the City. |
| • Mario Monti in Japan - all day • Italian Business Confidence for March: 9am BST / 10am CET • UK GDP for Q4 2011 (final reading): 9.30am BST • German consumer prices index for March: 1pm BST / 2pm CET • US durable goods orders for February - 1.30 BST / 8.30am EST | • Mario Monti in Japan - all day • Italian Business Confidence for March: 9am BST / 10am CET • UK GDP for Q4 2011 (final reading): 9.30am BST • German consumer prices index for March: 1pm BST / 2pm CET • US durable goods orders for February - 1.30 BST / 8.30am EST |
| In the bond markets, the Italian government is looking to sell €8.5bn of six-month bills. | In the bond markets, the Italian government is looking to sell €8.5bn of six-month bills. |
| 8.00am: Good morning all, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the eurozone crisis … | 8.00am: Good morning all, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the eurozone crisis … |
| … a crisis that has almost run its course, according to a decidedly upbeat Mario Monti. Earlier this morning, the Italian prime minister told an audience in Tokyo that the eurozone's worst problems were now behind it. | … a crisis that has almost run its course, according to a decidedly upbeat Mario Monti. Earlier this morning, the Italian prime minister told an audience in Tokyo that the eurozone's worst problems were now behind it. |
| According to local reports, Monti also pinned some of the blame for the euro's woes on Germany and France – we'll have full details shortly. | According to local reports, Monti also pinned some of the blame for the euro's woes on Germany and France – we'll have full details shortly. |
| Monti's comments come just hours after the OECD warned that Europe needs "the mother of all firewalls" to contain the debt crisis. | Monti's comments come just hours after the OECD warned that Europe needs "the mother of all firewalls" to contain the debt crisis. |
| Elsewhere, Spain remains under the cosh as its government pushes on with a tough austerity budget, due on Friday. | Elsewhere, Spain remains under the cosh as its government pushes on with a tough austerity budget, due on Friday. |
| And in the UK, final GDP data will show whether the economy did shrink by 0.2% in the last three months of 2011. | And in the UK, final GDP data will show whether the economy did shrink by 0.2% in the last three months of 2011. |