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Wolfson Prize shortlist: five ways to break up the eurozone Wolfson Prize shortlist: five ways to break up the eurozone
(about 6 hours later)
A £250,000 prize for the best contingency plan for a breakup of the single currency has been narrowed down to a shortlist of five. The hunt to find the least disruptive way to organise a breakup of the troubled euro entered its final phase on Tuesday when a shortlist of five was announced for the £250,000 Wolfson prize.
Prompted by the sovereign debt crisis that has gripped the single currency for the past two-and-a-half years, more than 400 entries were received for the award, sponsored by the chief executive of Next, Tory peer Lord Simon Wolfson, and the second most lucrative for economics after the annual Nobel prize. Prompted by the sovereign debt crisis that has gripped the single currency for the past two-and-a-half years, more than 400 entries were received for the award, sponsored by the multimillionaire chief executive of the Next fashion chain and Tory peer Lord Simon Wolfson. It is the second most lucrative prize for economics after the annual Nobel prize.
The winner of the prize will be announced in July but the chairman of the judges, Derek Scott, said that all five contenders had provided valuable ideas about how a country could exit the euro. The winner of the Wolfson will be announced in July but the chairman of the judges, Derek Scott, said that all five contenders had provided valuable ideas about how a country could exit the euro, which was created at the end of the 1990s and is now used by 17 European Union states.
Those on the shortlist – a team from Capital Economics led by Roger Bootle; private investor Cathy Dobbs; Jens Nordvig and Nick Firoozye, of Nomura Securities; Neil Record, of Record Currency Management; and Jonathan Tepper, from Variant Perception – are assured a £10,000 share of the prize and have until the end of May to develop their argument.Those on the shortlist – a team from Capital Economics led by Roger Bootle; private investor Cathy Dobbs; Jens Nordvig and Nick Firoozye, of Nomura Securities; Neil Record, of Record Currency Management; and Jonathan Tepper, from Variant Perception – are assured a £10,000 share of the prize and have until the end of May to develop their argument.
All said at a London press conference that they remained unconvinced that recent attempts to shore up the single currency would work in anything other than the short term. Wolfson said he had been "fantastically impressed by the entries", and said the idea was to provide "an answer to a problem which at some point Europe is going to have to face".
"Greece will leave within the not too distant future", Bootle said, adding that he hoped the ideas prompted by the prize would help to minimise the disruption of departure. He added that a breakup would involve the devaluation of a large number of currencies, which in turn would prompt fears of large-scale default. "That threat raises issues of capital flight and how you control capital flows."
The shortlisted entrants said at a London press conference that they remained unconvinced that recent attempts to shore up the single currency would work in anything other than the short term. These have included a second bailout for Greece, the most heavily indebted eurozone member, an increase from €500bn (£420bn) to €800bn in the size of the war chest to stave off speculative attacks, and steps by the European Central Bank to flood eurozone banks with ultra-cheap money.
"Greece will leave within the not too distant future", Bootle said, adding that he hoped the ideas prompted by the prize would help to minimise the disruption of departure. He said that a breakup would not only help the weaker members of the single currency, but also help Germany to rebalance its economy away from exports and towards strong domestic demand.
Tepper said he thought there would be an attempt to muddle along, but eventually those "countries that see an economic benefit to exit will do so. Economic pressures will force countries to exit."Tepper said he thought there would be an attempt to muddle along, but eventually those "countries that see an economic benefit to exit will do so. Economic pressures will force countries to exit."
Scott, a former economic adviser to Tony Blair, described the single currency as "a doomsday machine that is not only undermining economies but undermining democracy".Scott, a former economic adviser to Tony Blair, described the single currency as "a doomsday machine that is not only undermining economies but undermining democracy".
He added: "The question of currency breakup is clearly enormously complex, spanning financial and legal arrangements. We were impressed by a number of the entrants' efforts to grapple with these issues. We felt it was only fair to give finalists the opportunity to refine their thoughts."He added: "The question of currency breakup is clearly enormously complex, spanning financial and legal arrangements. We were impressed by a number of the entrants' efforts to grapple with these issues. We felt it was only fair to give finalists the opportunity to refine their thoughts."
Wolfson said he had been "fantastically impressed by the entries", and said the idea was to provide "an answer to a problem which at some point Europe is going to have to face".
He added that a breakup would involve the devaluation of a large number of currencies, which in turn would prompt fears of large-scale default. "That threat raises issues of capital flight and how you control capital flows."