Iranian nuclear talks open in Istanbul

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/julian-borger-global-security-blog/2012/apr/14/iran-nuclear-weapons

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The tulips are out in force on a crisp spring morning in Istanbul. Away from the minarets and domes of the old city, in a monolithic concrete convention centre in New Istanbul, the long-awaited, long-delayed resumption of international talks with Iran about its nuclear programme got underway at 11am.

The talks between the Iranian chief negotiator, Saeed Jalili, and diplomats from six world powers (US, China, Germany, France, UK and Russia) started an hour late, on the Iranian's request. It is not clear why. It is known that Jalili had an unexpectedly long, three-hour dinner with Cathy Ashton, the European high representative for foreign policy who is acting as convener for the six nations, at the Iranian consul's residence. They ate lamb and rice and it was by all accounts very relaxed and merry. Both avoided talking about the nuclear issue head-on, instead discussing the Arab Spring, home towns, cuisine etc.

All the mood music is positive, in other words, but the real issues will only come up this morning. Ashton will give some opening remarks in closed session followed by Jalili and then the senior diplomats, political directors from foreign ministries of the six nations, all get their go, and then lunch. Only then will the outside world have an inkling over whether this is all going in the right direction.

On the plus side is the Iranian body language which is very businesslike and upbeat. Jalili's deputy Ali Bagheri, had meetings with Russian and Chinese diplomats last night and they reported back to the six-nation group that the Iranians had come to negotiate in good faith. On the other side, the six nations have a very low threshold for success - signs of 'serious engagement', maybe without specifics on what kind of limits Iran would be prepared to accept on its nuclear programme, but enough to give hope that those specifics will be on the table in the next round of talks. Everyone here is united by anxiety that if the diplomacy fails, it will open the door to possible military action by Israel.

That next round might be in Baghdad. The Iranians were last week asking for this round to be in the Iraqi capital despite earlier acceptance of Istanbul, but were mollified into sticking to the Turkish venue in return for assurances that Baghdad would be considered for a second round. At a meeting yesterday, the diplomats from the six nations agreed among themselves that, despite security concerns, Baghdad would be acceptable.