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| Bad news for Nicolas Sarkozy in Burgundy's bellwether village | Bad news for Nicolas Sarkozy in Burgundy's bellwether village |
| (3 days later) | |
| Opinion polls come and go, but when it comes to elections the 1,600 souls of the pretty Burgundy village of Donzy always seem to know best. | Opinion polls come and go, but when it comes to elections the 1,600 souls of the pretty Burgundy village of Donzy always seem to know best. |
| Famous for its Pouilly-Fumé wine and foie gras, Donzy has, with uncanny prescience, mirrored the voting pattern of the whole of France since 1981. | Famous for its Pouilly-Fumé wine and foie gras, Donzy has, with uncanny prescience, mirrored the voting pattern of the whole of France since 1981. |
| That year, it turned left behind François Mitterrand. In 1995, it went right behind Jacques Chirac; in 2007, it veered further right behind Nicolas Sarkozy. In 2002, when Jean-Marie Le Pen caused a political tsunami by knocking out the Socialist candidate to reach the second-round vote, Donzy did too, reflecting an entirely unexpected national trend. | That year, it turned left behind François Mitterrand. In 1995, it went right behind Jacques Chirac; in 2007, it veered further right behind Nicolas Sarkozy. In 2002, when Jean-Marie Le Pen caused a political tsunami by knocking out the Socialist candidate to reach the second-round vote, Donzy did too, reflecting an entirely unexpected national trend. |
| The town's reputation as a political bellwether has been fixed in the national psyche by its history of picking not only the winner but also the runners-up in the correct order, and within a percentage point or two. It is a collective feat as unlikely as betting on the first 10 to romp home in the Grand National. | The town's reputation as a political bellwether has been fixed in the national psyche by its history of picking not only the winner but also the runners-up in the correct order, and within a percentage point or two. It is a collective feat as unlikely as betting on the first 10 to romp home in the Grand National. |
| At 8am yesterday morning, the bells of the 12th-century church of St Carrad'heuc swung into action. A local man cycled through town, his bicycle panniers filled with baguettes. The market traders arrived to set up stall in the town square as a tractor rumbled nearby. At the small but busy market, locals were friendly and happy to talk politics, although some were a little reticent to say who would get their vote. | At 8am yesterday morning, the bells of the 12th-century church of St Carrad'heuc swung into action. A local man cycled through town, his bicycle panniers filled with baguettes. The market traders arrived to set up stall in the town square as a tractor rumbled nearby. At the small but busy market, locals were friendly and happy to talk politics, although some were a little reticent to say who would get their vote. |
| A week and a day from the first round of the presidential election, the latest polls showed the incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy and his Socialist rival François Hollande almost neck-and-neck for first place in the vote next Sunday, but gave Hollande a sizeable victory in the second round a fortnight later. | A week and a day from the first round of the presidential election, the latest polls showed the incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy and his Socialist rival François Hollande almost neck-and-neck for first place in the vote next Sunday, but gave Hollande a sizeable victory in the second round a fortnight later. |
| The only activists handing out leaflets in the village are those from Jean-Luc Mélenchon's Front de Gauche, currently tussling with the far-right Front National (FN) leader, Marine Le Pen, for third place in the polls. One leafleter, Gilbert Moser, 71, a retired local councillor from Paris, explains that Donzy, which nestles in the rolling hills of the Nièvre department 200km from the French capital, is a microcosm of Gallic society. | |
| "We have a very mixed population and the same range of concerns here as in the rest of the country; unemployment, the cost of living, education, and with a large number of retired people, pensions," he said. | "We have a very mixed population and the same range of concerns here as in the rest of the country; unemployment, the cost of living, education, and with a large number of retired people, pensions," he said. |
| His neighbour, Hervé Huet, 65, added: "They're talking of closing the school here and that will mean death to the place. Already young people are moving away and this will be the death knell." | His neighbour, Hervé Huet, 65, added: "They're talking of closing the school here and that will mean death to the place. Already young people are moving away and this will be the death knell." |
| Karl Thill, 79, a retired advertising executive, and his wife Marie-Hélène, 62, a former adult-education worker, are also leaning towards Mélenchon, but have not quite made up their minds. | Karl Thill, 79, a retired advertising executive, and his wife Marie-Hélène, 62, a former adult-education worker, are also leaning towards Mélenchon, but have not quite made up their minds. |
| "At least he has some new ideas," Thill said. His wife agreed but added: "I shall vote François Hollande because we don't want to risk Sarkozy getting elected. It's very much an anti-Sarkozy vote because, to be honest, while Hollande seems sincere and honest he's never been a minister, so people don't really know him." | "At least he has some new ideas," Thill said. His wife agreed but added: "I shall vote François Hollande because we don't want to risk Sarkozy getting elected. It's very much an anti-Sarkozy vote because, to be honest, while Hollande seems sincere and honest he's never been a minister, so people don't really know him." |
| The couple, both originally from the Paris suburbs, say the range of opinions in Donzy and the lack of adversarial politics makes a refreshing change. "Unlike Paris, here people can hold and share opinions without becoming enemies. I may not agree with my neighbour, but we get on well and we can talk about our different views," said Thill. | The couple, both originally from the Paris suburbs, say the range of opinions in Donzy and the lack of adversarial politics makes a refreshing change. "Unlike Paris, here people can hold and share opinions without becoming enemies. I may not agree with my neighbour, but we get on well and we can talk about our different views," said Thill. |
| The town's deputy mayor, Roger Blanchard, 59, a farmer, claims Donzy's social mix gives "a true vision of France". Though a largely agricultural community, residents include those working at local factories (one, Soyez Frères, which employs 75 people making plastic straws for McDonald's and Coca-Cola and toothpicks for British Airways, and another turning out luxury umbrellas), as well as artisans, retired Parisians, small businesses and the self-employed. | The town's deputy mayor, Roger Blanchard, 59, a farmer, claims Donzy's social mix gives "a true vision of France". Though a largely agricultural community, residents include those working at local factories (one, Soyez Frères, which employs 75 people making plastic straws for McDonald's and Coca-Cola and toothpicks for British Airways, and another turning out luxury umbrellas), as well as artisans, retired Parisians, small businesses and the self-employed. |
| Anne-Marie Mercier, who with her husband Marc runs the Grand Monarque hotel, built at the foot of a former château that dates back, in parts, to the 16th century, says local concerns reflect national issues. "It's true that we have the same range of problems here in Donzy as the whole of France. It's especially hard for those of us running small businesses. When the economic crisis bites it's always the smallest enterprises that suffer," she said. | Anne-Marie Mercier, who with her husband Marc runs the Grand Monarque hotel, built at the foot of a former château that dates back, in parts, to the 16th century, says local concerns reflect national issues. "It's true that we have the same range of problems here in Donzy as the whole of France. It's especially hard for those of us running small businesses. When the economic crisis bites it's always the smallest enterprises that suffer," she said. |
| Stéphan Amechin, 51, a chef, is not particularly enamoured of the mainstream right or left but will "probably" vote Sarkozy in the second round as he did in 2007, while Sandra Picchiottino, 37, who is in telesales, admitted she has no idea. "To be honest, I'm not convinced by any of them," she says. | Stéphan Amechin, 51, a chef, is not particularly enamoured of the mainstream right or left but will "probably" vote Sarkozy in the second round as he did in 2007, while Sandra Picchiottino, 37, who is in telesales, admitted she has no idea. "To be honest, I'm not convinced by any of them," she says. |
| Another man, who did not want to be named, said that, while nobody would openly admit to voting for the FN, the far right had strong support in one of the satellite areas of Donzy, which was worrying. "We don't have any immigration here, these people have never seen an African or an Arab here, but they read the papers and see the television and are worried. They think our way of life here in the countryside is threatened." | Another man, who did not want to be named, said that, while nobody would openly admit to voting for the FN, the far right had strong support in one of the satellite areas of Donzy, which was worrying. "We don't have any immigration here, these people have never seen an African or an Arab here, but they read the papers and see the television and are worried. They think our way of life here in the countryside is threatened." |
| In Donzy, Sarkozy seems more disliked than Hollande is liked, and Mélenchon and Le Pen both have their camps. Of the six other candidates, including the eternal also-ran François Bayrou, there was not a single mention. | In Donzy, Sarkozy seems more disliked than Hollande is liked, and Mélenchon and Le Pen both have their camps. Of the six other candidates, including the eternal also-ran François Bayrou, there was not a single mention. |
| For the second round and – barring a last-minute upset – the predicted runoff between Hollande and Sarkozy, Donzy again mirrors the nation's struggle to identify with either candidate, amid widespread disillusion. A recent poll showed 32% of those questioned said they did not plan to vote. An unscientific straw poll of Donziais opinion suggests the political mood is more anti-Sarkozy than pro-Hollande. | For the second round and – barring a last-minute upset – the predicted runoff between Hollande and Sarkozy, Donzy again mirrors the nation's struggle to identify with either candidate, amid widespread disillusion. A recent poll showed 32% of those questioned said they did not plan to vote. An unscientific straw poll of Donziais opinion suggests the political mood is more anti-Sarkozy than pro-Hollande. |
| Back at the Grand Monarque, for Anne-Marie Mercier the rules of discretion apply: "Of course we think Donzy is special. But I don't talk politics with the guests. I hear everything and say nothing," she said. And at Chez Didier, the bar owner – presumably Didier – backs off in alarm when asked who he thinks will be the next president of France. "You want him to lose half his customers?" joked a customer. "I know who will win," Didier laughed. "Whoever comes first – and that's all I'm saying." | Back at the Grand Monarque, for Anne-Marie Mercier the rules of discretion apply: "Of course we think Donzy is special. But I don't talk politics with the guests. I hear everything and say nothing," she said. And at Chez Didier, the bar owner – presumably Didier – backs off in alarm when asked who he thinks will be the next president of France. "You want him to lose half his customers?" joked a customer. "I know who will win," Didier laughed. "Whoever comes first – and that's all I'm saying." |
| But if Donzy, the bellwether village, has got it right yet again, it looks like being a bleak second round for Nicolas Sarkozy. | But if Donzy, the bellwether village, has got it right yet again, it looks like being a bleak second round for Nicolas Sarkozy. |
| • This article was amended on 17 April 2012. The original referred to the Front Gauche. This has been corrected. | |
| SARKOZY VS HOLLANDE | SARKOZY VS HOLLANDE |
| French presidential election voting intentions | French presidential election voting intentions |
| First round on 22 April | First round on 22 April |
| François Hollande 28.4% | François Hollande 28.4% |
| Nicolas Sarkozy 27.0% | Nicolas Sarkozy 27.0% |
| Second round on 6 May | Second round on 6 May |
| François Hollande 55.5% | François Hollande 55.5% |
| Nicolas Sarkozy 45.5% | Nicolas Sarkozy 45.5% |
| Sources: Opinionway, BVA, LH2, CSA | Sources: Opinionway, BVA, LH2, CSA |
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