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Crime statistics for England & Wales: what's happening to each offence? Crime statistics for England & Wales: what's happening to each offence?
(3 months later)
Crimes recorded by the police in England and Wales fell by 8.4% between the years ending September 2011 and September 2012, according to the latest crime statistics. Crime in England and Wales has fallen by 8% over the past year according to statistics released today.
8.9m crimes were reported in 2011/12, down from 9.6m the previous year, and 29% lower than ten years ago, according to figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). In total, 3,700,349 crimes were recorded by police between January and December 2012. Taking the long view, an even bigger decline can be seen in these Home Office figures, with police recorded crime down 38% since 2002.
Total numbers of crimes recorded for six of the eight main categories of offence fell compared to the previous year, with vandalism showing a fall of 14%. Most striking perhaps is the fact that this decline has occurred across so many categories of crime. Since 2012, here has been a 16% reduction in motor vehicle theft, a 15% decline in criminal damage and a 13% decline in robbery. In fact, the only category of crime to show an increase is theft from the person which rose by 8% to 107,471 police-recorded offences.
Bicycle theft and 'other household theft' - that excluding burglary and vehicle-related theft - were the only two categories showing increases, and neither of these was found to be statistically significant at the 5% level. Alan Travis has more here, where he quotes Jeff Farrar, of the Association of Chief Police Officers:
A concurrent but separate ONS publication shows that the rate of police recorded crime has fallen more quickly than the rate of reported crime found in the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW). We cannot be complacent and while overall these results are positive the police service will need to adapt and innovate to continue bringing down crime as their budgets decrease.
Alan Travis has more here, where he writes:
[The figures show] a 41% drop in crime between 2002-03 and 2011-12 for police recorded crime figures, compared with a 26% drop in the crime survey results over the same period.
Statisticians say one explanation for the difference may have been pressure on the police to downgrade incidents in the face of a targets culture. The study says the police figures may overstate the actual long-term fall in crime, especially since 2006-07.
There were 1.8m reported incidents of vandalism between July 2011 and June 2012, down from 2.1m the previous year. Reports of burglaries, violence and vehicle-related theft also fell by over 10% each.
Below is a selection of other interesting statistics from the latest figures:Below is a selection of other interesting statistics from the latest figures:
Homicides vs attempted murdersHomicides vs attempted murders
549 homicides (includes murder, manslaughter and infanticide) were reported in the year ending September 2012, a considerable drop on the previous year's total of 607. Homicides are now down to around half of the figure for 2001/2. 551 homicides (includes murder, manslaughter and infanticide) were reported in the year ending December 2012, a considerable drop on the previous year's total of 638. Homicides are now down to around half of the figure for 2001/2.
Attempted murders also fell, but by a smaller proportion, dropping by 2.7% in comparison to a fall of 9.6% in homicides. Attempted murders also fell, but by a smaller proportion, dropping by 7.6% in comparison to a fall of 13.6% in homicides.
Crime rates
Reports of crime against an individual in 2011/12 occurred at a rate of 78 per 1,000 people, down from 87 in 2010/11. Household crimes were reported at a rate of 226 per 1,000 households, down from 247.
Reported vs recordedReported vs recorded
It's important to bear in mind that today's release focuses on police recorded crimes. These are provided to the Home Office by police authorities and forces, not all of whom collect data with the same precision according to a 2007 audit. This is problematic because it means that a higher number in a given area may indicate an improvement in reporting by police rather than a rise in criminality.It's important to bear in mind that today's release focuses on police recorded crimes. These are provided to the Home Office by police authorities and forces, not all of whom collect data with the same precision according to a 2007 audit. This is problematic because it means that a higher number in a given area may indicate an improvement in reporting by police rather than a rise in criminality.
What's more, crimes recorded by police are unlikely to represent the total number of crimes that take place. To understand this better, it's useful to also consider the CSEW which asks people face-to-face about their experiences of, attitudes about and perceptions of a range of crimes. What's more, crimes recorded by police are unlikely to represent the total number of crimes that take place. To understand this better, it's useful to also consider the CSEW which asks more than 40,000 people face-to-face about their experiences of, attitudes about and perceptions of a range of crimes.
Though police-recorded crimes are down 8.4%, the number of crimes reported in the survey has fallen by 7.1%. 8.9 million crimes were reported in the survey in the year ending September 2012, while the police recorded 3.8 million crimes in this period. Though police-recorded crimes are down 8%, the number of crimes reported in the survey has fallen by 5%. 8.9 million crimes were reported in the survey in the year ending December 2012, while the police recorded 3.7 million crimes in this period.
The gap between police-recorded and survey-reported crime has always been significant, but the distance between the two has widened. In 2004/05, there was an effective recording rate of 52.8%, while in the latest statistical release, this figure has dropped to 42.4%. The gap is even more noticeable when looking at specific categories of crime. While police record a 10% reduction in bicycle crime, crime survey responses show a 12% increase. This may suggest that for smaller offences, individuals are less likely to report crimes to the police.
Perception of crimePerception of crime
Another of the more interesting figures is that of the perception of crime. The CSEW asks people whether they think crime is getting worse where they live and nationally. So, people think crime is getting worse - but not where they live. It's the gap between what we know is going on and what we think is going on.Another of the more interesting figures is that of the perception of crime. The CSEW asks people whether they think crime is getting worse where they live and nationally. So, people think crime is getting worse - but not where they live. It's the gap between what we know is going on and what we think is going on.
This might reflect public pessimism about the effectiveness of crime prevention. The survey poses the statement 'police and local council are dealing with the anti-social behaviour and crime issues that matter in the local area' - to which 60% of people agreed last year. When faced with the statement 'the criminal justice system as a whole is effective' just 44% agreed.
Fraud
For the first time, the statistics include new figures from the National Fraud Intelligence Bureau showing a breakdown of fraud in the UK. This differs from the police recorded crime - for starters, there's more of them: 441,174 recorded in 2012, compared to around 142,000 by police in the last financial year. Of that, the vast majority is bank fraud: online bank accounts, credit card and cheque fraud accounting for over 50% of all fraud. The NFIB operates a telephone data recording system and the organisation's statistics combine with police figures.
It also records an interesting breakdown of computer fraud, with hacking of social media and email accounts for 1,565 offences.
This is the first year the data is out - next year we should be able to start comparing. It's probably the tip of the iceberg: many fraud offences are not reported to anybody.
We've extracted the key figures for you and made them available to download via the link below. What can you do with them?We've extracted the key figures for you and made them available to download via the link below. What can you do with them?
Data summary
Crime by police force area
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