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Marine Le Pen's success reveals populists' appeal to European voters Marine Le Pen's success reveals populists' appeal to European voters
(10 days later)
Leading France's Front National to its best ever first-round result in her first presidential campaign, Marine Le Pen counts herself as the big winner even if she vanishes from the ballot papers in a fortnight.Leading France's Front National to its best ever first-round result in her first presidential campaign, Marine Le Pen counts herself as the big winner even if she vanishes from the ballot papers in a fortnight.
As elsewhere in Europe – Austria, the Netherlands or Switzerland – the populist parties, which are usually dubbed the extreme right, frequently perform much better than predicted. That may be because voters are ashamed of telling the pollsters they are voting for maverick rabblerousers, but cast their ballots for them nonetheless.As elsewhere in Europe – Austria, the Netherlands or Switzerland – the populist parties, which are usually dubbed the extreme right, frequently perform much better than predicted. That may be because voters are ashamed of telling the pollsters they are voting for maverick rabblerousers, but cast their ballots for them nonetheless.
In any case, there is nothing new about the Front National's pivotal position in French politics. The FN has been well-established for 30 years and Le Pen's 18% of the vote on Sunday confirms that, if anything, its influence is growing.In any case, there is nothing new about the Front National's pivotal position in French politics. The FN has been well-established for 30 years and Le Pen's 18% of the vote on Sunday confirms that, if anything, its influence is growing.
Far or extreme right is a bit of a misnomer for the assorted rebels, mavericks and tub-thumpers usually grouped with the party.Far or extreme right is a bit of a misnomer for the assorted rebels, mavericks and tub-thumpers usually grouped with the party.
From Hungary to Sweden, Finland to Greece, sundry extremists, racists, neo-Nazis, or simply deep conservatives occupy the ground held by what we call the far right. There are huge differences between, say, the militant street activists of Hungary's Jobbik movement and the besuited business lobby of the Swiss People's party.From Hungary to Sweden, Finland to Greece, sundry extremists, racists, neo-Nazis, or simply deep conservatives occupy the ground held by what we call the far right. There are huge differences between, say, the militant street activists of Hungary's Jobbik movement and the besuited business lobby of the Swiss People's party.
But what the assorted leaders and parties have in common is a deep rightwing cultural conservatism suffused with nostalgia for an always better and often imaginary national past – the era before mass immigration, globalisation, Europe, and international finance destroyed, they believe, the old, white, illiberal, homogeneous nation states of Europe.But what the assorted leaders and parties have in common is a deep rightwing cultural conservatism suffused with nostalgia for an always better and often imaginary national past – the era before mass immigration, globalisation, Europe, and international finance destroyed, they believe, the old, white, illiberal, homogeneous nation states of Europe.
On economics, however, the populists tend to be anything but rightwing. They are further to the left of European social democracy in supporting generous welfare states, early retirement ages, pensions – a strong state munificent in its public spending.On economics, however, the populists tend to be anything but rightwing. They are further to the left of European social democracy in supporting generous welfare states, early retirement ages, pensions – a strong state munificent in its public spending.
Le Pen's Dutch equivalent, Geert Wilders, for example, has just brought down the government in The Hague over a budget crisis and his refusal to toe Brussels' line in cutting welfare benefits and pensions.Le Pen's Dutch equivalent, Geert Wilders, for example, has just brought down the government in The Hague over a budget crisis and his refusal to toe Brussels' line in cutting welfare benefits and pensions.
Le Pen already looks a more formidable and cannier leader of the movement in France than her father, Jean-Marie, whose crude antisemitism, racism, and second world war revisionism made him the object of mockery as well as fear. People do not laugh at Marine Le Pen as they did at her father.Le Pen already looks a more formidable and cannier leader of the movement in France than her father, Jean-Marie, whose crude antisemitism, racism, and second world war revisionism made him the object of mockery as well as fear. People do not laugh at Marine Le Pen as they did at her father.
She has been fortunate in her timing, with the two big contemporary issues fuelling the rise of illiberal populism everywhere in Europe except Germany and the Iberian peninsula – the eurozone crisis and Muslim immigration.She has been fortunate in her timing, with the two big contemporary issues fuelling the rise of illiberal populism everywhere in Europe except Germany and the Iberian peninsula – the eurozone crisis and Muslim immigration.
Islamophobia has become the new antisemitism for the current generation of rebels, while the age of austerity decided by Europe's leaders as the answer to runaway debt, soaring deficits, and a failing euro supplies fertile ground for the populist campaigners.Islamophobia has become the new antisemitism for the current generation of rebels, while the age of austerity decided by Europe's leaders as the answer to runaway debt, soaring deficits, and a failing euro supplies fertile ground for the populist campaigners.
Hence Le Pen's and Wilders's calls to return to national currencies and halt immigration. Although they do not achieve their maximalist demands, these campaigns are successful in setting the agendas in national politics and forcing the mainstream parties to accommodate the extremists by meeting them halfway.Hence Le Pen's and Wilders's calls to return to national currencies and halt immigration. Although they do not achieve their maximalist demands, these campaigns are successful in setting the agendas in national politics and forcing the mainstream parties to accommodate the extremists by meeting them halfway.
In France, President Nicolas Sarkozy sounded tough on immigration, Islam, and passport-free travel in Europe to try to lure Le Pen's voters. He failed. In the Netherlands, Wilders has propped up a rightwing government for almost two years by extracting policy concessions, and has now triggered its collapse. In Austria, first the late Jörg Haider and now his heir, Heinz-Christian Strache, forced the political mainstream in his direction.In France, President Nicolas Sarkozy sounded tough on immigration, Islam, and passport-free travel in Europe to try to lure Le Pen's voters. He failed. In the Netherlands, Wilders has propped up a rightwing government for almost two years by extracting policy concessions, and has now triggered its collapse. In Austria, first the late Jörg Haider and now his heir, Heinz-Christian Strache, forced the political mainstream in his direction.
As the eurozone crisis drags on, things will get worse for ordinary folk, impacting on the real lives and economies of Europe in the form of unemployment, slashed benefits, credit crunches, banking crises and company closures. The populists are well-placed to benefit from the perceived failures of the mainstream parties and the EU governing elite.As the eurozone crisis drags on, things will get worse for ordinary folk, impacting on the real lives and economies of Europe in the form of unemployment, slashed benefits, credit crunches, banking crises and company closures. The populists are well-placed to benefit from the perceived failures of the mainstream parties and the EU governing elite.
Tomorrow, Le Pen, Wilders and the rest may be tempted to think, belongs to us.Tomorrow, Le Pen, Wilders and the rest may be tempted to think, belongs to us.
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