This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/23/illegal-immigrants-mexico-us-economy

The article has changed 8 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 0 Version 1
Many illegal immigrants returning to Mexico amid weakened US economy Illegal immigrants returning to Mexico amid weakened US economy
(about 1 hour later)
The number of Mexican immigrants living illegally in the US has dropped significantly for the first time in decades, a dramatic shift as many illegal workers, already in the US and seeing few job opportunities, return to Mexico. The net flow of Mexicans into the US has dwindled to a trickle and may now be in reverse, giving the lie to right-wing warnings of an "invasion" of illegal immigrants and bringing to an end four decades of inward migration.
An analysis of census data from the US and Mexican governments details the movement to and from Mexico, a nation accounting for nearly 60% of the illegal immigrants in the US. It comes amid renewed debate over US immigration policy as the supreme court hears arguments this week on Arizona's tough immigration law. A survey from the Pew Hispanic Center finds that the largest wave of immigration in American history to have taken place from a single country has now been brought to a virtual standstill. In the five years from 2005 to 2010, about 1.4m Mexicans immigrated to the US – exactly the same number of Mexican immigrants and their US-born children who quit America and moved back or were deported to Mexico.
Roughly 6.1 million unauthorized Mexican immigrants were living in the US last year, down from a peak of nearly 7 million in 2007, according to the Pew Hispanic Center study released Monday. It was the biggest sustained drop in modern history, believed to be surpassed in scale only by losses in the Mexican-born US population during the Great Depression. By contrast, in the previous five years to 2000 some 3m Mexicans came to the US and fewer than 700,000 left it.
Much of the drop in illegal immigrants is due to the persistently weak US economy, which has shrunk construction and service-sector jobs attractive to Mexican workers following the housing bust. But increased deportations, heightened US patrols and violence along the border also have played a role, as well as demographic changes, such as Mexico's declining birth rate. The latest figures signify the end of an era. From 1970, the Mexican-born population of the US has risen steeply, reaching a peak of more than 12m in 2010.
In all, the Mexican-born population in the US last year – legal and illegal – fell to 12 million, marking an end to an immigration boom dating back to the 1970s, when foreign-born residents from Mexico stood at 760,000. The 2007 peak was 12.6 million. Now it is falling, with the decline including undocumented Mexican immigrants living in the US who now number about 6.1m – 58% of the total unauthorised immigrant population of the country.
Christian Ballesteros, who has been at a shelter for immigrants in Matamoros, Mexico, across the border from Brownsville, Texas, pointed to stiffer US penalties for repeat offenders as well as brutal criminal groups that control the Mexican side of the border as reasons for the immigration decline. Ballesteros, who has been deported four times, was recently caught after hopping the border fence near Nogales, Arizona. In an election year in which immigration policy has provided a sharp divide between the presidential candidates, evidence that illegal Mexican immigration has dried out is of immeasurable significance. Mitt Romney, the presumptive Republican nominee, has backed hardline anti-illegal immigration clampdowns introduced by states around the country, promising to make them federal policy should he win the presidency.
"The Mexican cartels are taking over, are actually being like the border patrols on this side," Ballesteros said. "They threaten them: 'If you don't pay, what we're going to do is we're going to cut your head off.' That's the worst, the worst, the worst part." President Obama, on the other hand, has said he supports the "Dream Act" that would provide a path to citizenship to law abiding Hispanic college students, though he has failed to put that into effect. He has also stepped up deportations of Mexicans who have infringed the law, with about 300,000 illegal immigrants deported back to Mexico in 2010 alone.
After his last apprehension by US authorities, Ballesteros was sent to a detention facility in Las Vegas for two and a half months. He fears it could be six months if he's caught again. "You can lose money, but if you lose time there's no way you can recover that time," Ballesteros said, noting that many immigrants have families to support. The new statistics take the wind out of the sails of those who have targeted illegal Mexican immigrants for taking jobs away from unemployed Americans – the Pew study suggests that the flow of immigrants has decreased largely because under the economic downturn incoming Mexican immigrants can no longer find work.
Jeffrey Passel, a senior demographer at Pew who co-wrote the analysis, said Mexican immigration may never return to its height during the mid-decade housing and construction boom, even with the US economy recovering. He cited longer-term factors such as a shrinking Mexican workforce. "As the US economy continues to struggle, people no longer want to come here to work," said Ali Noorani, head of the non-partisan group National Immigration Forum.
He noted that government data now show a clear shift among Mexican workers already in the US who are returning home. He said that data is a sign that many immigrants are giving up on life in the US, feeling squeezed by increasing enforcement and limited opportunities that they don't see improving anytime soon. The Pew study also points to a dramatic reduction in the number of Mexicans apprehended as they try to cross the border. More than 1m were picked up by US immigration officers in 2005 – now that number has plummeted by more than 70% to 286,000 last year.
About 1.4 million Mexicans left the US between 2005 and 2010, double the number who did so a decade earlier. In the meantime, the number of Mexicans who entered the US sharply fell to about 1.4 million, putting net migration from Mexico at a standstill. More recent data suggest that most of the movement is now heading back to Mexico, accounting for the drop in the illegal immigrant population. Whit Ayres, a Republican political strategist, said the evidence of a large decline in illegal border traffic was helpful. "Before you can move forward with any serious immigration reform you need to give Americans confidence that the border is secure," he said.
During the same period, the population of authorized Mexican immigrants edged higher, from 5.6 million to 5.8 million. While the poor state of the economy explains much of the dip in numbers, so too does the rash of harsh anti-illegal immigration laws introduced in several states including Arizona, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina. The new statistics suggest that the tough laws - that attempt to make life so uncomfortable for undocumented immigrants that they leave the country, a policy known as "attrition through enforcement" - are to some extent working.
Among the Mexican immigrants who leave the US, an estimated 5% to 35% are deported while the rest opt to go back voluntarily, often taking US-born children with them. Those who were in the US illegally and returned to Mexico also are increasingly saying they will not try to come back – about 20%, compared to 7% in 2005. On Wednesday the US supreme court will hear oral presentations on SB 1070, Arizona's landmark immigration bill from 2010, that has spawned a spate of copy-cat legislation in other states. The court will have to decide whether key provisions in the law, including a clause that would force local police officers to check the immigrant status of anyone they come across whom they suspect of being undocumented, should be allowed to go ahead or barred because they undermine federal control of immigration policy.
The Pew estimates come amid heightened attention on immigration in an election year where the fast-growing Hispanic population, now making up roughly 16% of the US population, could play a key role. Arizona's law, being challenged by the Obama administration in the supreme court, seeks to expand the authority of state police to ask about the immigration status of anybody they stop on the rationale that federal enforcement has largely failed. Noorani said that the Pew figures underlined the urgency of finding a solution to America's immigration conundrum. "When the US economy bounces back we will need a supply of immigrant labour and at that point we are going to need a functioning immigration system – which is something that at the moment we sorely lack."
Since Arizona's law passed in 2010, five other states – Alabama, Georgia, Indiana, South Carolina and Utah – have passed similar measures.
Steve A Camarota, director of research at the Center for Immigration Studies, a Washington group that advocates tighter immigration policies, said the latest numbers show that immigration policies do make a difference.
"The bottom line is that immigration is not the weather. It is something that … can be changed," he said. "The economy is worse but enforcement is also higher, making it more difficult for immigrants to get jobs in states like Arizona. They are now making new calculations and changing their views."