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| Version 2 | Version 3 |
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| The GOP primaries in NY, CT, DE, PA and RI | The GOP primaries in NY, CT, DE, PA and RI |
| (about 1 month later) | |
| You might not know it because of the lack of media coverage, but Tuesday features another slate of presidential primaries. Five states – Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island – cast their votes for the Republican nominee, and Mitt Romney is expected to win all five. Romney was always expected to do well in these primaries, because throughout the campaign, Romney's percentage of the non-Ron Paul vote has been predicted very well by the percentage of voters who identified themselves as white evangelical. | You might not know it because of the lack of media coverage, but Tuesday features another slate of presidential primaries. Five states – Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island – cast their votes for the Republican nominee, and Mitt Romney is expected to win all five. Romney was always expected to do well in these primaries, because throughout the campaign, Romney's percentage of the non-Ron Paul vote has been predicted very well by the percentage of voters who identified themselves as white evangelical. |
| Connecticut and New York | Connecticut and New York |
| Less than 20% of voters in these states (pdf) identified as evangelical in the 2008 primary. My state-based evangelical model projected Romney to garner in the neighborhood of 70% of the non-Paul vote in each state. | Less than 20% of voters in these states (pdf) identified as evangelical in the 2008 primary. My state-based evangelical model projected Romney to garner in the neighborhood of 70% of the non-Paul vote in each state. |
| Polls taken in mid-March estimated Romney's Connecticut percentage of the non-Paul vote to be in the upper 50s, while polls taken just prior to Santorum dropping out of the race pegged Romney's New York support to be in the mid to high 60s. | Polls taken in mid-March estimated Romney's Connecticut percentage of the non-Paul vote to be in the upper 50s, while polls taken just prior to Santorum dropping out of the race pegged Romney's New York support to be in the mid to high 60s. |
| How much better could Romney do now that Santorum is out of the race? | How much better could Romney do now that Santorum is out of the race? |
| National polls indicate that Santorum supporters are splitting evenly between Romney and Gingrich. Ron Paul has been doing about 3-5 points better in each state compared to his performance in 2008, but he didn't really seem to pick up much support nationally once Santorum dropped out of the race. | National polls indicate that Santorum supporters are splitting evenly between Romney and Gingrich. Ron Paul has been doing about 3-5 points better in each state compared to his performance in 2008, but he didn't really seem to pick up much support nationally once Santorum dropped out of the race. |
| In Connecticut, I'd project Mitt Romney to get around 59% of the vote, to Newt Gingrich at 24%, to Rick Paul at 15%, to Santorum at 2%. | In Connecticut, I'd project Mitt Romney to get around 59% of the vote, to Newt Gingrich at 24%, to Rick Paul at 15%, to Santorum at 2%. |
| In New York, I'd expect Romney to get somewhere in the neighborhood of 64% of the vote, to Gingrich at 19%, to Paul at 14%, to Santorum at 3%. | In New York, I'd expect Romney to get somewhere in the neighborhood of 64% of the vote, to Gingrich at 19%, to Paul at 14%, to Santorum at 3%. |
| Keep in mind we have no up-to-date polling data in any of the 24 April states, and Santorum's exit might have a different impact in each state, so all the predictions that appear here are more art than science. | Keep in mind we have no up-to-date polling data in any of the 24 April states, and Santorum's exit might have a different impact in each state, so all the predictions that appear here are more art than science. |
| Delaware | Delaware |
| Newt Gingrich is making a stand in the Blue Hen state. Gingrich spokesman RC Hammond told reporters that he is "optimistic" about Tuesday's primary results. Though Delaware was a union state, its Republican electorate isn't exactly filled with blue-blood moderate voters. | Newt Gingrich is making a stand in the Blue Hen state. Gingrich spokesman RC Hammond told reporters that he is "optimistic" about Tuesday's primary results. Though Delaware was a union state, its Republican electorate isn't exactly filled with blue-blood moderate voters. |
| About half the votes in the 2010 Senate Republican primary came from downstate Kent and Sussex Counties. These states border the southern US and vote like it. They provided the winning margin for Tea Partier Christine O'Donnell in her upset victory over moderate Mike Castle in the aforementioned primary. | About half the votes in the 2010 Senate Republican primary came from downstate Kent and Sussex Counties. These states border the southern US and vote like it. They provided the winning margin for Tea Partier Christine O'Donnell in her upset victory over moderate Mike Castle in the aforementioned primary. |
| A third of voters in the 2008 presidential primary (pdf) identified as evangelical, which translated into a forecasted 54% of the non-Paul vote to Romney. Sean Trende's county-based evangelical model was more pessimistic for Romney, estimating his non-Paul vote percentage to be only 46%. | A third of voters in the 2008 presidential primary (pdf) identified as evangelical, which translated into a forecasted 54% of the non-Paul vote to Romney. Sean Trende's county-based evangelical model was more pessimistic for Romney, estimating his non-Paul vote percentage to be only 46%. |
| Funky results can occur when low turnout is the rule. As the only non-Romney candidate on the ballot in Virginia, for example, Ron Paul managed to get 40.5% of the vote. | Funky results can occur when low turnout is the rule. As the only non-Romney candidate on the ballot in Virginia, for example, Ron Paul managed to get 40.5% of the vote. |
| Speaking of Paul, he only got 4% of the vote in the 2008 Delaware presidential primary. I'd expect him to do better than last time, but still only garner in the area of 10%-15% of the vote. | Speaking of Paul, he only got 4% of the vote in the 2008 Delaware presidential primary. I'd expect him to do better than last time, but still only garner in the area of 10%-15% of the vote. |
| Given Gingrich's efforts in the state, I'd expect this to be closer than some might expect: Mitt Romney at 49%, to Newt Gingrich at 34%, to Ron Paul at 14%, to Rick Santorum at 3%. | Given Gingrich's efforts in the state, I'd expect this to be closer than some might expect: Mitt Romney at 49%, to Newt Gingrich at 34%, to Ron Paul at 14%, to Rick Santorum at 3%. |
| Pennsylvania | Pennsylvania |
| The Quaker state was supposed to be the marquee matchup of 24 April: Rick Santorum was going to make his last stand in his home state, but it was not meant to be. Santorum dropped out the race, which left the incredibly well-organized Mitt Romney a wide open path to Keystone victory. | The Quaker state was supposed to be the marquee matchup of 24 April: Rick Santorum was going to make his last stand in his home state, but it was not meant to be. Santorum dropped out the race, which left the incredibly well-organized Mitt Romney a wide open path to Keystone victory. |
| The final polls out of Pennsylvania painted a tight race with Romney and Santorum within a few points of each other. You might expect Romney to win at least half of Santorum's voters, but the fact is that Santorum is likely to do well in his backyard (his name is still on the ballot, even though he's out of the race). | The final polls out of Pennsylvania painted a tight race with Romney and Santorum within a few points of each other. You might expect Romney to win at least half of Santorum's voters, but the fact is that Santorum is likely to do well in his backyard (his name is still on the ballot, even though he's out of the race). |
| An American Research Group poll taken the night after Santorum dropped out had him within 3 percentage points of Romney. In 1992, recently dropped-out Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts got 27% and 30% of the vote in next-door Connecticut and New York, respectively. In 2004, Howard Dean and John Edwards actually won their home states of Vermont and North Carolina after exiting the race. | An American Research Group poll taken the night after Santorum dropped out had him within 3 percentage points of Romney. In 1992, recently dropped-out Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts got 27% and 30% of the vote in next-door Connecticut and New York, respectively. In 2004, Howard Dean and John Edwards actually won their home states of Vermont and North Carolina after exiting the race. |
| Somewhere around 36-43% of the voters in Pennsylvania are expected to be white evangelical. Thus Romney would have been forecast to receive 50% of the non-Paul vote plus or minus a few percentage points. I think that will probably hold for the most part. | Somewhere around 36-43% of the voters in Pennsylvania are expected to be white evangelical. Thus Romney would have been forecast to receive 50% of the non-Paul vote plus or minus a few percentage points. I think that will probably hold for the most part. |
| Ron Paul got only 16% of the vote as the only still viable non-John McCain candidate in 2008. He should do worse this time around. | Ron Paul got only 16% of the vote as the only still viable non-John McCain candidate in 2008. He should do worse this time around. |
| The Pennsylvania primary is likely to end up somewhere in the neighborhood of Mitt Romney at 45% to Rick Santorum at 35% to Newt Gingrich at 10% to Ron Paul at 10%. | The Pennsylvania primary is likely to end up somewhere in the neighborhood of Mitt Romney at 45% to Rick Santorum at 35% to Newt Gingrich at 10% to Ron Paul at 10%. |
| Rhode Island | Rhode Island |
| The Ocean's state primary will be a low turnout affair. I wouldn't be entirely shocked with a total of fewer than 20,000 voters. There has not been a single poll this year, and there was no exit poll in 2008 to give us an idea of the percentage of white evangelicals that will make up the electorate. | The Ocean's state primary will be a low turnout affair. I wouldn't be entirely shocked with a total of fewer than 20,000 voters. There has not been a single poll this year, and there was no exit poll in 2008 to give us an idea of the percentage of white evangelicals that will make up the electorate. |
| Sean Trende's county-based evangelical model, which does not rely on exit polls, projected Mitt Romney's share of the non-Paul vote to be 49%. Romney will certainly do better than that percentage, but not as well as you might expect. | Sean Trende's county-based evangelical model, which does not rely on exit polls, projected Mitt Romney's share of the non-Paul vote to be 49%. Romney will certainly do better than that percentage, but not as well as you might expect. |
| Rhode Island Republicans nearly tossed the liberal, but general election-electable, Senator Lincoln Chafee for the more conservative Steve Laffey in 2006. | Rhode Island Republicans nearly tossed the liberal, but general election-electable, Senator Lincoln Chafee for the more conservative Steve Laffey in 2006. |
| Ron Paul has been doing quite well in the northern New England contests, and he has bought air time on local Rhode Island television. That said, most of Paul's success is in the rural parts of northern New England. He has never polled well in next-door Connecticut and fared poorly in Massachusetts. He won only 6.5% of the vote in the Ocean's state 2008 contest. Ryan Lizza and Josh Putnam's delegate model forecasted Paul at 16.3% with Santorum still in the race. | Ron Paul has been doing quite well in the northern New England contests, and he has bought air time on local Rhode Island television. That said, most of Paul's success is in the rural parts of northern New England. He has never polled well in next-door Connecticut and fared poorly in Massachusetts. He won only 6.5% of the vote in the Ocean's state 2008 contest. Ryan Lizza and Josh Putnam's delegate model forecasted Paul at 16.3% with Santorum still in the race. |
| Newt Gingrich has not received above 9.5% in any New England primary so far. There is a question of how much of Santorum's support he can pick up. I think he can collect half of it based on the national trends, but that may be a bit high. | Newt Gingrich has not received above 9.5% in any New England primary so far. There is a question of how much of Santorum's support he can pick up. I think he can collect half of it based on the national trends, but that may be a bit high. |
| Given all this data, I project Rhode Islanders to cast 55% of their votes for Mitt Romney, to 23% for Newt Gingrich, to 19% for Ron Paul, to 3% for Rick Santorum. | Given all this data, I project Rhode Islanders to cast 55% of their votes for Mitt Romney, to 23% for Newt Gingrich, to 19% for Ron Paul, to 3% for Rick Santorum. |
| Overall | Overall |
| There are 150 delegates assigned to the candidates tomorrow, plus another 72 un-pledged delegates in Pennsylvania's "loophole" primary. | There are 150 delegates assigned to the candidates tomorrow, plus another 72 un-pledged delegates in Pennsylvania's "loophole" primary. |
| I expect Mitt Romney to win all the delegates in Connecticut, Delaware and New York for a total of 134, plus another nine delegates in Rhode Island's proportional primary. Romney should eventually win most, if not all, the delegates in Pennsylvania, but there is no real relationship between tomorrow's Quaker state popular vote and delegate count. | I expect Mitt Romney to win all the delegates in Connecticut, Delaware and New York for a total of 134, plus another nine delegates in Rhode Island's proportional primary. Romney should eventually win most, if not all, the delegates in Pennsylvania, but there is no real relationship between tomorrow's Quaker state popular vote and delegate count. |
| Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul should win three or four delegates each in Rhode Island. | Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul should win three or four delegates each in Rhode Island. |
| By the end of Tuesday's vote-counting, Romney will add to his large delegate lead and will continue to be well on his way to the nomination. | By the end of Tuesday's vote-counting, Romney will add to his large delegate lead and will continue to be well on his way to the nomination. |
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