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Primary day may be last hurrah for Newt Gingrich - US politics live Primary day may be last hurrah for Newt Gingrich - US politics live
(38 minutes later)
3.29pm: It's the biggest political drama of the night: the Newt Gingrich death watch. Will tonight be the night that the former speaker suspends his historic 2012 run for the White House? We refer you to Hendrik Hertzberg's column of last December in which he attempts to take the measure of Gingrich's ego:
Imagine that man as Commander-in-Chief. It's no stretch for him. His fantasy life is so rich that he has already compared himself to Abraham Lincoln, Charles de Gaulle, Margaret Thatcher, Ronald Reagan, and (for sheer perseverance) Ho Chi Minh.
The Guardian delegate tracker shows Gingrich has managed to stack up 134 delegates in the primary race, almost exactly 20 percent the amount of "frontrunner" Mitt Romney.
Is Newt going to call it quits? And if he does, how historic will his speech announcing the end of his historic run count as?
From one political funeral to another: John Edwards trial in the morning; Newt Gingrich campaign event in the evening
— Nico Hines (@NicoHines) April 24, 2012
3.13pm: President Obama just finished taping an appearance on "Late Night with Jimmy Fallon" in which he expounded on his behind-the-scenes relationship with presumptive GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney:
"We're not friends." Obama on Mitt Romney. #ObamaonFallon
— Jarrard Cole (@jarrardcole) April 24, 2012
Ouch. Network TV. Kind of a harsh way for Mitt to have to find this out.
2.57pm: Hello there, Tom McCarthy in New York here jumping in for Richard Adams, who will be heading up our coverage of tonight's primaries in the five northeastern states of NY, PA, DE, RI and CT.2.57pm: Hello there, Tom McCarthy in New York here jumping in for Richard Adams, who will be heading up our coverage of tonight's primaries in the five northeastern states of NY, PA, DE, RI and CT.
Ron Paul never emerged as a force to be reckoned with in this primary race but his dominance of online comments sections, chat rooms and grassroots fundraising sites continues unabated. One of our favorite proposals out there is a for a Ron Paul video game, which one dedicated Paul-ite has already begun to build.Ron Paul never emerged as a force to be reckoned with in this primary race but his dominance of online comments sections, chat rooms and grassroots fundraising sites continues unabated. One of our favorite proposals out there is a for a Ron Paul video game, which one dedicated Paul-ite has already begun to build.
Here's a pitch for the game currently attracting gobs of attention on the fundraising site Kickstarter. With a week to go in its fundraising period, the project already has attracted almost double its goal of $5k.Here's a pitch for the game currently attracting gobs of attention on the fundraising site Kickstarter. With a week to go in its fundraising period, the project already has attracted almost double its goal of $5k.
Would you play?
/> 		Would you play?
(h/t: politico)(h/t: politico)
2.30pm: The Los Angeles Times hears President Obama's speech at UNC Chapel Hill this afternoon:2.30pm: The Los Angeles Times hears President Obama's speech at UNC Chapel Hill this afternoon:
On the UNC campus, whose students protested tuition increases earlier this year, the handpicked crowd appeared predisposed to Obama's point of view – especially when he brought the story home. At one point, Obama asked the southern crowd, "Can I get an 'Amen?'" The "amens" echoed throughout the rest of the speech.On the UNC campus, whose students protested tuition increases earlier this year, the handpicked crowd appeared predisposed to Obama's point of view – especially when he brought the story home. At one point, Obama asked the southern crowd, "Can I get an 'Amen?'" The "amens" echoed throughout the rest of the speech.
2.15pm: Worrying about the Gallup daily tracking poll at this point in the election campaign is the path to madness, but make of this what you will:2.15pm: Worrying about the Gallup daily tracking poll at this point in the election campaign is the path to madness, but make of this what you will:
Barack Obama's job approval rating has increased in recent days and now stands at 50% in Gallup Daily tracking for April 21-23.Barack Obama's job approval rating has increased in recent days and now stands at 50% in Gallup Daily tracking for April 21-23.
The 50% approval mark is notable because all incumbent presidents since Eisenhower who were at or above 50% approval at the time of the election were re-elected. Obama's job approval rating has typically been in the mid-40% range for the last three months.The 50% approval mark is notable because all incumbent presidents since Eisenhower who were at or above 50% approval at the time of the election were re-elected. Obama's job approval rating has typically been in the mid-40% range for the last three months.
Unsurprisingly, Obama's better approval numbers shows up in Gallup's poll of voting preferences, with Obama now holding a lead of 49% to 42% over Mitt Romney. A week ago the same poll had Romney up by five points.Unsurprisingly, Obama's better approval numbers shows up in Gallup's poll of voting preferences, with Obama now holding a lead of 49% to 42% over Mitt Romney. A week ago the same poll had Romney up by five points.
Why the shift? "One possible reason for Obama's recent rise is the decline in gas prices," opines Gallup.Why the shift? "One possible reason for Obama's recent rise is the decline in gas prices," opines Gallup.
2pm: President Obama has just finished the first of his three campus gigs planned for this week, this one being at UNC Chapel Hill, where the main topic of discussion was student loans.2pm: President Obama has just finished the first of his three campus gigs planned for this week, this one being at UNC Chapel Hill, where the main topic of discussion was student loans.
In front of a full house of around 9,000 students, Obama notes:In front of a full house of around 9,000 students, Obama notes:
Now check this out, I'm the president of the United States ... We only finished paying off our student loans about eight years ago.Now check this out, I'm the president of the United States ... We only finished paying off our student loans about eight years ago.
Obama wants the students to lobby their members of Congress over the interest rate on federal student loans, which is set to double from 3.4% to 6.8% on July 1 without intervention by Congress – an expiration date chosen in 2007 when a Democratic Congress voted to chop the rate in half.Obama wants the students to lobby their members of Congress over the interest rate on federal student loans, which is set to double from 3.4% to 6.8% on July 1 without intervention by Congress – an expiration date chosen in 2007 when a Democratic Congress voted to chop the rate in half.
1.42pm: Today's must-read-then-poke-out-own-eyes comes from Salon's Jim Newell, who tallies all the very worst predictions the political commentariat made during the Republican primaries. The net conclusion is that many members of the media couldn't find their own genitals with an iPhone app and decent wifi:1.42pm: Today's must-read-then-poke-out-own-eyes comes from Salon's Jim Newell, who tallies all the very worst predictions the political commentariat made during the Republican primaries. The net conclusion is that many members of the media couldn't find their own genitals with an iPhone app and decent wifi:
The dirty little secret about political punditry, that is not actually a secret to anyone who watches and reads it, is that it's all lies. It requires very little knowledge or skill, and there are no consequences for being wrong. For a major newspaper to fire one of its columnists for getting something wrong would bring down the whole pundit industry, as that logic would necessitate the firing of them all. Every election pundit is wrong about everything, nearly all the time, and there's usually a direct correlation between a pundit's frequency of wrongness and his or her status — see the Washington Post's stable of columnists for a prime example. The entire punditocracy is a sham, but thank you for reading anyway.The dirty little secret about political punditry, that is not actually a secret to anyone who watches and reads it, is that it's all lies. It requires very little knowledge or skill, and there are no consequences for being wrong. For a major newspaper to fire one of its columnists for getting something wrong would bring down the whole pundit industry, as that logic would necessitate the firing of them all. Every election pundit is wrong about everything, nearly all the time, and there's usually a direct correlation between a pundit's frequency of wrongness and his or her status — see the Washington Post's stable of columnists for a prime example. The entire punditocracy is a sham, but thank you for reading anyway.
There's not enough of this sort of thing.There's not enough of this sort of thing.
1.21pm: But what of Ron Paul, I hear nobody ask, since he's still in the running. Well, there's this:1.21pm: But what of Ron Paul, I hear nobody ask, since he's still in the running. Well, there's this:
Paul has a base of diehard supporters and has had little trouble raising contributions. He told CNBC he has no plans to quit.Paul has a base of diehard supporters and has had little trouble raising contributions. He told CNBC he has no plans to quit.
"You don't quit because you happen to be behind," he said. "You want to see how you do. And who knows? Maybe somebody will stumble.""You don't quit because you happen to be behind," he said. "You want to see how you do. And who knows? Maybe somebody will stumble."
Or you could quit when the other team has crossed the finishing line and has lapped you a couple of times.Or you could quit when the other team has crossed the finishing line and has lapped you a couple of times.
1pm: Harvard's Institute of Politics – or HIOP as it's known – has a poll that finds Barack Obama remains stubbornly popular with young people, who have so far failed to fall for the charms of Mitt Romney, despite Romney wearing denim since February 2011:1pm: Harvard's Institute of Politics – or HIOP as it's known – has a poll that finds Barack Obama remains stubbornly popular with young people, who have so far failed to fall for the charms of Mitt Romney, despite Romney wearing denim since February 2011:
Obama is preferred over the former Massachusetts governor by 17 percentage points – 43% to 26% – among Americans ages 18 to 29, a group often referred to as millennials because they came of age in this millennium. Undecideds are 30%, while one percent refused to answer.Obama is preferred over the former Massachusetts governor by 17 percentage points – 43% to 26% – among Americans ages 18 to 29, a group often referred to as millennials because they came of age in this millennium. Undecideds are 30%, while one percent refused to answer.
Bloomberg News notes that back in 2008, 18-to-29 year old voters supported Obama 66% to 32% for Republican presidential nominee Senator John McCain of Arizona, according to exit polls. But Harvard Institute of Politics polling director John Della Volpe comments:Bloomberg News notes that back in 2008, 18-to-29 year old voters supported Obama 66% to 32% for Republican presidential nominee Senator John McCain of Arizona, according to exit polls. But Harvard Institute of Politics polling director John Della Volpe comments:
Although this generation is not as supportive of President Obama and Democrats as they may have been in the historic 2008 campaign, this in no way implies that the Republican Party has successfully captured the hearts, minds and votes of Millennials.Although this generation is not as supportive of President Obama and Democrats as they may have been in the historic 2008 campaign, this in no way implies that the Republican Party has successfully captured the hearts, minds and votes of Millennials.
12.23pm: Jackie Gingrich Cushman, Newt Gingrich's daughter, told MSNBC that her father will "reassess" his campaign after tonight's primaries, potentially setting the stage for his exit from the Republican presidential race:12.23pm: Jackie Gingrich Cushman, Newt Gingrich's daughter, told MSNBC that her father will "reassess" his campaign after tonight's primaries, potentially setting the stage for his exit from the Republican presidential race:
He talked about waiting for results and looking to see what happens and then potentially reassess.... You never know what's going to happen tomorrow.He talked about waiting for results and looking to see what happens and then potentially reassess.... You never know what's going to happen tomorrow.
Of course, everything changes if Gingrich wins Delaware. With its 17 delegates to the Republican National Convention.Of course, everything changes if Gingrich wins Delaware. With its 17 delegates to the Republican National Convention.
12.12pm: Voting fever grips Pennsylvania – that's the headline you won't be reading anywhere, because the reverse seems to be the case, in part because of the unusually cold weather that hit the region around Pittsburgh with a few inches of snow.12.12pm: Voting fever grips Pennsylvania – that's the headline you won't be reading anywhere, because the reverse seems to be the case, in part because of the unusually cold weather that hit the region around Pittsburgh with a few inches of snow.
But in the Republican primary to determine the GOP candidate to run against incumbent Democratic US senator Bob Casey, there's much more action, as the Philadelphia Inquirer reports:But in the Republican primary to determine the GOP candidate to run against incumbent Democratic US senator Bob Casey, there's much more action, as the Philadelphia Inquirer reports:
This month, Steve Welch, the Senate candidate backed by the party establishment, unleashed a torrent of ads on TV calling his chief rival, Armstrong County coal executive Tom Smith, "the worst Republican impersonator ever."This month, Steve Welch, the Senate candidate backed by the party establishment, unleashed a torrent of ads on TV calling his chief rival, Armstrong County coal executive Tom Smith, "the worst Republican impersonator ever."
Another spot appearing on the Web - and employing a clip from the Adam Sandler film Billy Madison - described Smith's rhetorical style as rambling, incoherent, and "insanely idiotic."Another spot appearing on the Web - and employing a clip from the Adam Sandler film Billy Madison - described Smith's rhetorical style as rambling, incoherent, and "insanely idiotic."
For his part, Smith has countered with ads branding Welch a supporter of President Obama.For his part, Smith has countered with ads branding Welch a supporter of President Obama.
11.45am: A lot of the kids today are into these comic strips, such as this one from xkcd.11.45am: A lot of the kids today are into these comic strips, such as this one from xkcd.
11.30am: While Newt Gingrich mulls his future of well-deserved obscurity, where will Mitt Romney be tonight? In New Hampshire. Which seems somewhat away from the limelight – but the Boston Globe explains why:11.30am: While Newt Gingrich mulls his future of well-deserved obscurity, where will Mitt Romney be tonight? In New Hampshire. Which seems somewhat away from the limelight – but the Boston Globe explains why:
For Romney, the significance of New Hampshire is personal as well as political. The state is home to his summer residence and was the launch pad of his candidacy last summer. He was a regular visitor before the hotly contested primary in January. And Tuesday night, instead of celebrating in one of the five states holding a primary that day, Romney is returning to the Granite State for a speech and a victory party that his campaign considers his official pivot to the general election.For Romney, the significance of New Hampshire is personal as well as political. The state is home to his summer residence and was the launch pad of his candidacy last summer. He was a regular visitor before the hotly contested primary in January. And Tuesday night, instead of celebrating in one of the five states holding a primary that day, Romney is returning to the Granite State for a speech and a victory party that his campaign considers his official pivot to the general election.
11.10am: With nothing much on the line in today's Republican primaries, Newt Gingrich gives the Republican voters of Delaware the incentive they need to get out and vote – for someone else:11.10am: With nothing much on the line in today's Republican primaries, Newt Gingrich gives the Republican voters of Delaware the incentive they need to get out and vote – for someone else:
Newt Gingrich hinted he may withdraw from the presidential race if he has a poor showing in the Delaware primary Tuesday – a state where he has been actively campaigning for several weeks.Newt Gingrich hinted he may withdraw from the presidential race if he has a poor showing in the Delaware primary Tuesday – a state where he has been actively campaigning for several weeks.
"I think we need to take a deep look at what we are doing," Gingrich told NBC News in an exclusive interview on Monday. "We will be in North Carolina tomorrow night and we will look and see what the results are."I think we need to take a deep look at what we are doing," Gingrich told NBC News in an exclusive interview on Monday. "We will be in North Carolina tomorrow night and we will look and see what the results are.
You have to love that "we" in "we need to take a deep look at what we are doing" there – as if there's a mighty team of political operatives behind Gingrich, when we know it's just Newt, Callista and the guy in the elephant costume, RC Hammond, who hasn't even been paid in a month.You have to love that "we" in "we need to take a deep look at what we are doing" there – as if there's a mighty team of political operatives behind Gingrich, when we know it's just Newt, Callista and the guy in the elephant costume, RC Hammond, who hasn't even been paid in a month.
11am: The Republican presidential race may be all over but there's still time for Mitt Romney to enjoy a victory lap as voters go to the polls in New York and Pennsylvania – with Newt Gingrich hoping for one last hurrah in tiny Delaware.11am: The Republican presidential race may be all over but there's still time for Mitt Romney to enjoy a victory lap as voters go to the polls in New York and Pennsylvania – with Newt Gingrich hoping for one last hurrah in tiny Delaware.
Rumours abound that Gingrich will finally smell the coffee and end his increasingly irrelevant presidential campaign, perhaps as early as this evening, and possibly go out on a high note with a victory in the Old Line state.Rumours abound that Gingrich will finally smell the coffee and end his increasingly irrelevant presidential campaign, perhaps as early as this evening, and possibly go out on a high note with a victory in the Old Line state.
Elsewhere, there appears to be little to play for the primaries other than academic interest, with Barack Obama sure to wrap up the pro forma Democratic nomination after tonight's results.Elsewhere, there appears to be little to play for the primaries other than academic interest, with Barack Obama sure to wrap up the pro forma Democratic nomination after tonight's results.
Here's a summary of latest events from Ryan Devereaux:Here's a summary of latest events from Ryan Devereaux:
• With voters heading to the polls in New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania, today could be the day Mitt Romney effectively seals the Republican nomination. If Romney manages to sweep all five states, as many expect he will, the nominating process is all but guaranteed to come to an end. Romney won't be in any of the states voting today though. Instead he will appear in New Hampshire, where his march to the nomination began.• With voters heading to the polls in New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania, today could be the day Mitt Romney effectively seals the Republican nomination. If Romney manages to sweep all five states, as many expect he will, the nominating process is all but guaranteed to come to an end. Romney won't be in any of the states voting today though. Instead he will appear in New Hampshire, where his march to the nomination began.
• Florida senator Marco Rubio joined Mitt Romney on the campaign trail on Monday. Appearing with the presidential hopeful in Pennsylvania, Rubio became the latest Republican to assume the role of Romney's potential running mate. When asked if he believed a first term senator such as himself could handle the responsibility of being "a heartbeat away" from the presidency, Rubio replied: "I'm not talking about that process anymore."• Florida senator Marco Rubio joined Mitt Romney on the campaign trail on Monday. Appearing with the presidential hopeful in Pennsylvania, Rubio became the latest Republican to assume the role of Romney's potential running mate. When asked if he believed a first term senator such as himself could handle the responsibility of being "a heartbeat away" from the presidency, Rubio replied: "I'm not talking about that process anymore."
• President Obama has set his sights on the youth vote by targeting student loan costs. Barring congressional intervention, the interest rate for a federal loan popular among poorer and middle class students will double from 3.4% to 6.8% on July 1. According to the Federal Reserve, approximately 5% of Americans have outstanding student loans, estimated to be worth $870b and $1t. Mitt Romney has agreed with the president by embracing a temporary extension of lower rates for student loans, a policy opposed by House Republicans.• President Obama has set his sights on the youth vote by targeting student loan costs. Barring congressional intervention, the interest rate for a federal loan popular among poorer and middle class students will double from 3.4% to 6.8% on July 1. According to the Federal Reserve, approximately 5% of Americans have outstanding student loans, estimated to be worth $870b and $1t. Mitt Romney has agreed with the president by embracing a temporary extension of lower rates for student loans, a policy opposed by House Republicans.