Elected mayors not wanted by two thirds of voters

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/apr/26/elected-mayors-not-wanted-two-thirds

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The prime minister started the week by urging Britain's big cities to "join the race" by creating a mayoralty through referendums set for 3 May, but a new Guardian/ICM poll suggests that David Cameron could fall at the starting line in these local ballots.

The survey finds that by a near two-to-one margin of 61% to 34% voters say they would rather stick with "a local council mostly run by councillors from political parties that have a local majority" than adopt "a directly elected mayor" to run things in their area.

The coalition agrement proposed new directly elected mayors in the 12 largest cities outside of London, ideally subject to confirmation through a referendum . Leicester has already chosen its mayor and Liverpool city council has now followed its lead in using new powers to skip the referendum stage and make a straight switch to mayoral governance.

Birmingham, Bradford, Bristol, Coventry, Leeds, Manchester, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sheffield and Wakefield will all stage votes along with the council elections in a week's time.

The referendums will represent a city-by-city test of opinion, which could well be affected by local factors, such as the performance of the existing council and the stance that it takes to the prospect of mayor, which varies a good deal from place to place. But with a majority of the votes taking place in the north and the midlands, the coalition will be dismayed to learn that ICM find that opposition is, if anything, even more marked in these regions.

In the north, the split in favour of sticking with a collectively run council is 63%-32%, and in the Midlands it is 64%-31%, as against a somewhat closer 56%-38% divide in the south.

The majority against introducing new mayors is remarkably consistent across age groups, social classes, and even across supporters of different political parties. Despite Cameron's personal enthusiasm, Tory voters are against, by 60% to 37%.

The one comfort to ministers who have made new mayoralties the centrepiece of their plans to regenerate cities, is that different polling companies have got very different results when they worded the question in a different way. Earlier on in the month, YouGov asked respondents whether they would prefer directly elected mayors to indirectly elected council leaders, and emphasised that some towns already had these. Using this formulation it found strong support for a move to mayors, by a margin of 56% to 17%.

Even if the rest of the country were recoiling from the idea of a mayor as it watched the London contest between Ken Livingstone and Boris Johnson unfold, it is hard to believe that this could have moved public opinion so far and so fast. If the difference is driven by the terms in which the argument is pitched, then the stance taken by local town halls and political parties could yet play a decisive role.

Tony Blair's governments made mayoral referendums a possibility before the coalition renewed the push. Previously, there have been 41 mayoral referendums since the first in May 1998. Fifteen have voted yes, and 26 no.

One early yes was in Doncaster in 2001. But this year, the borough is staging a second referendum on whether to abolish the post. Its current mayor, Peter Davies, from the rightwing English Democrats party was elected in 2009, a year before Whitehall imposed commissioners on the council in response to concerns about its performance.

<em>ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,000 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 20-22nd April 2012. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.</em>