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| What can the north expect in next week's elections? | What can the north expect in next week's elections? |
| (30 days later) | |
| Next Thursday the country will go to the polls in what will be a crucial midterm test of opinion of the three main parties. | Next Thursday the country will go to the polls in what will be a crucial midterm test of opinion of the three main parties. |
| Contests for the Mayor of London and the race for Glasgow City Council have, in particular, been analysed to death to assess what various results wold mean for the three main party leaders. But in northern England too, an intriguing night awaits. | Contests for the Mayor of London and the race for Glasgow City Council have, in particular, been analysed to death to assess what various results wold mean for the three main party leaders. But in northern England too, an intriguing night awaits. |
| Across the region, 45 councils will see a third of their seats up for grabs. Of these, Labour has outright control of 28, the Conservatives four, Lib Dems one and 12 authorities are under no overall control. This compares with the 2008 local elections, the last time that the equivalent seats being fought next week were contested: then there were 14 councils under no overall control, 12 run by Labour, eight by the Conservatives and six by the Lib Dems. Alongside the council elections, Liverpool and Salford will chose whom they want as their first directly elected mayors, Doncaster will decide if it wants to retain its directly elected mayor whilst Bradford, Leeds, Manchester, Newcastle Upon -Tyne, Sheffield and Wakefield will all vote on whether to introduce the system. | Across the region, 45 councils will see a third of their seats up for grabs. Of these, Labour has outright control of 28, the Conservatives four, Lib Dems one and 12 authorities are under no overall control. This compares with the 2008 local elections, the last time that the equivalent seats being fought next week were contested: then there were 14 councils under no overall control, 12 run by Labour, eight by the Conservatives and six by the Lib Dems. Alongside the council elections, Liverpool and Salford will chose whom they want as their first directly elected mayors, Doncaster will decide if it wants to retain its directly elected mayor whilst Bradford, Leeds, Manchester, Newcastle Upon -Tyne, Sheffield and Wakefield will all vote on whether to introduce the system. |
| With such an array of elections coming up, what is the context in which they are being fought? | With such an array of elections coming up, what is the context in which they are being fought? |
| For Ed Miliband, who, in one recent poll for YouGov found his party nationally with a 13 point lead, the challenge is to prove that he can turn disillusionment with the Government into votes, nowhere more so than across Labour's northern heartlands. Having shocked many with the loss of the Bradford West by-election last month, Labour as a whole and Miliband in particular must prove that this was just a blip and that the party's grip on northern England remains as strong as ever. Anything that leaves any room for doubt over his ability to connect with the heartlands will leave tongues continuing to wag about whether Miliband is up to the job, and best able to capitalise on discontent with the Government. For the Conservatives, Baroness Warsi, the Yorkshire-born and bred co-chair of the party has predicted a difficult night, but the reality is that she and her colleagues cannot see their position slip too much across the three northern regions. Assessing what local election results mean in terms of the national picture is hazardous at best, but Warsi's Parliamentary aide and MP for Lancaster and Fleetwood, Eric Ollerenshaw's assertion that the Conservatives cannot achieve an outright majority of its own "without winning more seats in the North of England" should be ringing in the ears of party headquarters in London. In 2008, Richmond MP and now Foreign Secretary, William Hague spoke of a "northern revival" for the Conservatives. Four years on, could 2012 mark the start of a northern demise? | For Ed Miliband, who, in one recent poll for YouGov found his party nationally with a 13 point lead, the challenge is to prove that he can turn disillusionment with the Government into votes, nowhere more so than across Labour's northern heartlands. Having shocked many with the loss of the Bradford West by-election last month, Labour as a whole and Miliband in particular must prove that this was just a blip and that the party's grip on northern England remains as strong as ever. Anything that leaves any room for doubt over his ability to connect with the heartlands will leave tongues continuing to wag about whether Miliband is up to the job, and best able to capitalise on discontent with the Government. For the Conservatives, Baroness Warsi, the Yorkshire-born and bred co-chair of the party has predicted a difficult night, but the reality is that she and her colleagues cannot see their position slip too much across the three northern regions. Assessing what local election results mean in terms of the national picture is hazardous at best, but Warsi's Parliamentary aide and MP for Lancaster and Fleetwood, Eric Ollerenshaw's assertion that the Conservatives cannot achieve an outright majority of its own "without winning more seats in the North of England" should be ringing in the ears of party headquarters in London. In 2008, Richmond MP and now Foreign Secretary, William Hague spoke of a "northern revival" for the Conservatives. Four years on, could 2012 mark the start of a northern demise? |
| For the Liberal Democrats, the name of the game will simply be survival. After the 2008 elections, following a disastrous night for Gordon Brown over the 10p tax debacle, the Lib Dems found themselves retaining councils such as Newcastle and Stockport whilst adding to their tally others such as Burnley, Hull and Sheffield. With just one northern authority, South Lakeland, now with an outright Lib Dem majority and the party nationally languishing in the polls, Nick Clegg and Lib Dem HQ will be fighting even to stand still. If they can achieve that, they'll be doing well. | For the Liberal Democrats, the name of the game will simply be survival. After the 2008 elections, following a disastrous night for Gordon Brown over the 10p tax debacle, the Lib Dems found themselves retaining councils such as Newcastle and Stockport whilst adding to their tally others such as Burnley, Hull and Sheffield. With just one northern authority, South Lakeland, now with an outright Lib Dem majority and the party nationally languishing in the polls, Nick Clegg and Lib Dem HQ will be fighting even to stand still. If they can achieve that, they'll be doing well. |
| Councils to watch | Councils to watch |
| The Local Government Information Unit has published a useful guide to the top 50 council elections to watch across the UK next Thursday. To mark your card further, here are the races which I think will be particularly interesting. | The Local Government Information Unit has published a useful guide to the top 50 council elections to watch across the UK next Thursday. To mark your card further, here are the races which I think will be particularly interesting. |
| In Bradford, on 44 seats, Labour should on paper be a dead cert to take the two they need to gain an outright majority. But post-Bradford West, could Respect and some of the 12 candidates it is fielding snatch victory from under Labour's nose and make the upstart party the deciding force on the council? | In Bradford, on 44 seats, Labour should on paper be a dead cert to take the two they need to gain an outright majority. But post-Bradford West, could Respect and some of the 12 candidates it is fielding snatch victory from under Labour's nose and make the upstart party the deciding force on the council? |
| At the 2010 general election, in spite of Gordon Brown's now infamous branding of Gillian Duffy as a bigot, Labour's Simon Dancuk was nevertheless successful in taking the Rochdale parliamentary seat from the Lib Dems. For Labour, the hope will be that they can build on the slim majority they currently enjoy on the council. | At the 2010 general election, in spite of Gordon Brown's now infamous branding of Gillian Duffy as a bigot, Labour's Simon Dancuk was nevertheless successful in taking the Rochdale parliamentary seat from the Lib Dems. For Labour, the hope will be that they can build on the slim majority they currently enjoy on the council. |
| In Stockport, a recent defection to the Conservatives by Coun John Smith saw the Lib Dems' 30-seat minority administration in an authority with 60 seats reduced to 29. While Labour on paper remains fairly far behind as the next largest party on 18 seats, the Lib Dems will be pulling out all the stops to hold on to what they have. | In Stockport, a recent defection to the Conservatives by Coun John Smith saw the Lib Dems' 30-seat minority administration in an authority with 60 seats reduced to 29. While Labour on paper remains fairly far behind as the next largest party on 18 seats, the Lib Dems will be pulling out all the stops to hold on to what they have. |
| The Labour/Lib Dem fight is likely to be even more intense in Burnley. Home to Gordon Birtwistle MP, Parliamentary aide to the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Danny Alexander, the town should see Labour at least able to become the single biggest party. At present he Lib Dems have 21 seats, Labour 18, the Conservatives five and the BNP one. | The Labour/Lib Dem fight is likely to be even more intense in Burnley. Home to Gordon Birtwistle MP, Parliamentary aide to the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Danny Alexander, the town should see Labour at least able to become the single biggest party. At present he Lib Dems have 21 seats, Labour 18, the Conservatives five and the BNP one. |
| On the Wirral, things look set to be quite intriguing following a successful vote of no confidence in February which saw the leader of the Labour minority administration replaced by Conservative group leader Jeff Green. This came after Conservatives and Lib Dems joined forces in dissatisfaction over the leadership of the authority following a damning report into the state of the borough's social services department by Anna Klonowski. Whilst Labour are the single largest party, if ever there was a case where local issues are likely to dominate then this is it. | On the Wirral, things look set to be quite intriguing following a successful vote of no confidence in February which saw the leader of the Labour minority administration replaced by Conservative group leader Jeff Green. This came after Conservatives and Lib Dems joined forces in dissatisfaction over the leadership of the authority following a damning report into the state of the borough's social services department by Anna Klonowski. Whilst Labour are the single largest party, if ever there was a case where local issues are likely to dominate then this is it. |
| Meanwhile, if it is Conservative/Labour tussles you like to see, then Carlisle is your best bet. As one of those must-win parliamentary seats for both parties at the next General Election, visits by both David Cameron and Ed Miliband highlight how important they see the contest for the council. The current state of the parties on the authority is Labour 24, Conservatives 22, Lib Dem four and independents two. The Conservatives run the authority as a minority with Lib Dem support. Things are equally finely balanced over in Chorley with the Conservatives just the largest single party, four seats ahead of Labour. | Meanwhile, if it is Conservative/Labour tussles you like to see, then Carlisle is your best bet. As one of those must-win parliamentary seats for both parties at the next General Election, visits by both David Cameron and Ed Miliband highlight how important they see the contest for the council. The current state of the parties on the authority is Labour 24, Conservatives 22, Lib Dem four and independents two. The Conservatives run the authority as a minority with Lib Dem support. Things are equally finely balanced over in Chorley with the Conservatives just the largest single party, four seats ahead of Labour. |
| Expect a genuinely three-way struggle meanwhile in Pendle where the current composition of the authority is Conservatives on 17 seats, Labour on 16, Lib Dems on 12, BNP on one and independents on one. | Expect a genuinely three-way struggle meanwhile in Pendle where the current composition of the authority is Conservatives on 17 seats, Labour on 16, Lib Dems on 12, BNP on one and independents on one. |
| Mayoral Elections | Mayoral Elections |
| Recent polling by YouGov for the Sunday Times pointed to 55% of people across the north supporting the idea of a directly elected Mayor against 22% who opposed it. Despite this, it remains hard to predict whether those areas holding a referendum will see such polling turned into actual votes. | Recent polling by YouGov for the Sunday Times pointed to 55% of people across the north supporting the idea of a directly elected Mayor against 22% who opposed it. Despite this, it remains hard to predict whether those areas holding a referendum will see such polling turned into actual votes. |
| Local council elections are often characterised by low voter turnout at the best of times, and the lack of any exciting campaigns one way or another is likely to have left many people underwhelmed by the whole process and unenthusiastic about turning out to to vote. This is despite the best efforts of the Lords Adonis and Heseltine mayoral road show and a late intervention on the issue by the Prime Minister earlier this week. | Local council elections are often characterised by low voter turnout at the best of times, and the lack of any exciting campaigns one way or another is likely to have left many people underwhelmed by the whole process and unenthusiastic about turning out to to vote. This is despite the best efforts of the Lords Adonis and Heseltine mayoral road show and a late intervention on the issue by the Prime Minister earlier this week. |
| Turnout could be slightly increased as a result of the referendums being held on the same day as the local elections, but don't expect anything spectacular. If, and that's a very big if, any of the cities voting does say yes to an elected Mayor, expect howls of protest from those opposed to such a move, protesting about how such radical changes can be introduced on such a low turnout. | Turnout could be slightly increased as a result of the referendums being held on the same day as the local elections, but don't expect anything spectacular. If, and that's a very big if, any of the cities voting does say yes to an elected Mayor, expect howls of protest from those opposed to such a move, protesting about how such radical changes can be introduced on such a low turnout. |
| Meanwhile, keep an eye on Doncaster. Many commentators have cited it as a reason not to go down the root of elected Mayors, but a BBC Yorkshire poll recently suggested that 59% of residents supported retaining the system. | Meanwhile, keep an eye on Doncaster. Many commentators have cited it as a reason not to go down the root of elected Mayors, but a BBC Yorkshire poll recently suggested that 59% of residents supported retaining the system. |
| Further details of the decisions to be made about elected Mayors can be found at the website of the Electoral Commission. All polls are open next Thursday, 3 May, from 7am to 10pm. | Further details of the decisions to be made about elected Mayors can be found at the website of the Electoral Commission. All polls are open next Thursday, 3 May, from 7am to 10pm. |
| Ed Jacobs is a political consultant at the Leeds-based Public Affairs Company and devolution correspondent for the centre-left political and policy blog, Left Foot Forward. | Ed Jacobs is a political consultant at the Leeds-based Public Affairs Company and devolution correspondent for the centre-left political and policy blog, Left Foot Forward. |
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