François Bayrou: the lonely centrist who looks set to decide the French election

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/may/04/francois-bayrou-french-election

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It was a shocking surprise to many but not to those who, like me, voted for him in the first round of the French presidential elections two weeks ago. On hearing the news, Nicolas Sarkozy choked with rage and François Hollande sighed with relief. They both knew that the outcome of this Sunday's second round may have been decided just then, at the precise moment centrist François Bayrou uttered the words:

<blockquote>"Nicolas Sarkozy's strategy since the first round has been a violent one, one that goes against our values, and not only mine or my political movement's, but against General de Gaulle's values and those of a Republican and social right … In these circumstances, indecision is impossible. My vote for François Hollande will allow a much needed national union … There are times in history when certain choices become vital. We must all come together; overcome our differences, to build France anew."</blockquote>

Such a decision must not have been easy for someone who, in his own words, is not on the left and will never belong to it; someone for whom public deficit must be quelled, and spending frozen until further notice. Bayrou belongs to the centre which, in French politics, has always leaned to the right, and lived in the shadow of the mainstream right party of the day – in its shadow and under its thumb. French centrists have always been too interested in their own political careers, preferring to take part in rightwing governments than keep to a line and make an intellectual case for a third way – not à la Tony Blair, more perhaps à la Lib Dem.

The centre in France, an ill-defined political family, has often been derided for its fickleness and weakness with some notable exceptions. For instance, prime minister Raymond Barre, who never belonged to any political party, made a serious run for the presidency in 1988. But with only 16.6% of the votes on the first round, he came third behind Jacques Chirac and François Mitterrand, and eventually backed the rightwing Chirac.

Bayrou strikes a different and even more remarkable figure in that he is the first French centrist to say he will vote for a Socialist in a presidential election. In fact, for more than five years, Bayrou has proved to be the most vociferous, and bravest, opponent of Sarkozy. In a book published in 2009, Abuse of Power, he detailed Sarkozy's many improper uses of authority since his election in 2007, and in no uncertain terms. As a result, Bayrou lost many political lieutenants and allies who sided with Sarkozy in the hope of getting governmental positions. For the past five years, he has been "the lonely man" of French politics but also, according to polls, France's most popular politician.

Bayrou has everything to lose from stating that he will cast his vote for Hollande on Sunday. His own political movement is likely to implode as a result; the right may never forgive him and the left might fail to acknowledge his vital contribution. But he doesn't care; he feels his responsibility is first of all to history. His detractors say he is a loner, but perhaps Bayrou is simply a free man.

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