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| Boris Johnson 'wins London mayoral election': Politics live blog | Boris Johnson 'wins London mayoral election': Politics live blog |
| (40 minutes later) | |
| 9.52pm: My colleague Dave Hill says he's heard that they have found two more ballot boxes from Brent & Harrow to count. | |
| 9.48pm: Bad news for anyone hoping to go home, or go to bed. There seem to be further delays. | |
| Here's PoliticsHome's Paul Waugh on Twitter. | |
| Latest intel from Ally Pally: one whole box of votes still not scanned in. | |
| — Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) May 4, 2012 | |
| And here's ITV's Tim Gatt | |
| Oh not more delays... RT @peterdominiczak: Hearing they are hand-counting in Brent and Harrow. | |
| — Tim Gatt (@TimGattITV) May 4, 2012 | |
| 9.39pm: James Forsyth at Coffee House says Boris Johnson will be a force in the land if, as expected, he wins tonight. Boris will now be a force in the land. He represents a distinct brand of vote-winning Conservatism. It'll be intriguing to see how he uses his new found status: will he use it to push for lower-taxes and Euroscepiticism, or will he stick to London and the Olympics for the next few months at least? In the Daily Telegraph today Fraser Nelson has set out a similar argument at more length. | |
| Whatever result is announced tonight, Boris Johnson has already emerged as the champion of a new strain of British Conservatism. London is now a Labour city, and yesterday's election ought to have been a walkover for its candidate, Ken Livingstone. Yet Boris will either win, or come very close to doing so, because he has established an appeal far broader than that of David Cameron's party. He has done so not by apologising for Conservatism, but by embodying its virtues – and his success has been astonishing. Even his detractors are beginning to wonder if the clown prince might just be on to something. | |
| If all this causes you great alarm, you might want to read this post from Tim Bale at Coffee House. He thinks the idea of Johnson becoming prime minister is "almost certainly fantasy politics". | |
| For an alternative view, read Christopher Hope at the Telegraph. He has identified three scenarios that could lead to Johnson getting the top job. | |
| 9.22pm: The Evening Standard's Joe Murphy wrote a blog recently saying there should be an inquest in the Labour party into how the party selected Ken Livingstone as its candidate in London. While Boris Johnson is more popular than his party in London, Livingstone is less popular than his. | |
| Labour figures have generally resisted the temptation to criticise Livingstone in public. But Frank Dobson has virtually told that BBC that he thought Livingstone was the wrong candidate. | |
| Asked "Did you choose the wrong candidate?" Frank Dobson replied: "The Labour Party in London chose the candidate we've got." | |
| — Andy McSmith (@andymcsmith) May 4, 2012 | |
| Dobson also insisted that the Tories chose the right candidate. | |
Maybe it's also a combination of the Tories choosing the right candidate. I remember saying several months ago that Boris might win provided all those people who say "I might vote for Boris, he's a bit of a card" - if all the people who like him because he's a bit of a card turn out out, he might just scrap over the line. | |
| Of course, Dobson is not a neutral witness on the subject of Livingstone. He was Labour's official mayoral candidate in 2000, when Livingstone won as an independent. Dobson came in third with just 13% of the vote. | |
| 9.16pm: Tony Travers, the LSE local government expert, is telling the BBC that it "still isn't clear" what's going to happen. The message does not seem to be going down in the press room, where I expect everyone wants a result soon. | 9.16pm: Tony Travers, the LSE local government expert, is telling the BBC that it "still isn't clear" what's going to happen. The message does not seem to be going down in the press room, where I expect everyone wants a result soon. |
| 9.12pm: Michael Thrasher, the University of Plymouth psephologist, has told Sky News that it would take a "very spectacular result indeed" for Boris Johnson not to win the London mayoral contest not given the lead he has built up. "Like you, I think Johnson will be relected London mayor," he told Adam Boulton. | 9.12pm: Michael Thrasher, the University of Plymouth psephologist, has told Sky News that it would take a "very spectacular result indeed" for Boris Johnson not to win the London mayoral contest not given the lead he has built up. "Like you, I think Johnson will be relected London mayor," he told Adam Boulton. |
| 9.07pm: Here are the London assembly results that have come in so far. Thirteen of the 14 constituencies have declared. | 9.07pm: Here are the London assembly results that have come in so far. Thirteen of the 14 constituencies have declared. |
| Another 11 seats are allocated on a city-wide basis, using the additional member system, a form of PR. | Another 11 seats are allocated on a city-wide basis, using the additional member system, a form of PR. |
| 9.02pm: If you like facts and figures, these two Political Studies Association briefing papers on the London mayoral contest may interest you. | 9.02pm: If you like facts and figures, these two Political Studies Association briefing papers on the London mayoral contest may interest you. |
| • A briefing note from Tony Travers and Patrick Dunleavy. | • A briefing note from Tony Travers and Patrick Dunleavy. |
| • A slideshow briefing on the contest. | • A slideshow briefing on the contest. |
| 9.00pm: It's "not long to go", according to the official London Elects twitter feed. | 9.00pm: It's "not long to go", according to the official London Elects twitter feed. |
| @themightywab Results not declared yet for Mayor of London. Not long to go. | @themightywab Results not declared yet for Mayor of London. Not long to go. |
| — London Elects (@londonelects) May 4, 2012 | — London Elects (@londonelects) May 4, 2012 |
| 8.53pm: Here's some Twitter comment on the contest. | 8.53pm: Here's some Twitter comment on the contest. |
| From the Daily Mirror's Kevin Maguire | From the Daily Mirror's Kevin Maguire |
| London Mayor will be close. Boris ahead 108,000 with 2 areas to go. Was 150,000 ahead 1st round '08 before 2nd prefs split pretty evenly | London Mayor will be close. Boris ahead 108,000 with 2 areas to go. Was 150,000 ahead 1st round '08 before 2nd prefs split pretty evenly |
| — Kevin Maguire (@Kevin_Maguire) May 4, 2012 | — Kevin Maguire (@Kevin_Maguire) May 4, 2012 |
| From the BBC's Andrew Neil | From the BBC's Andrew Neil |
| So much for me saying result imminent. In danger of cliffhanger turning into boring wait. | So much for me saying result imminent. In danger of cliffhanger turning into boring wait. |
| — Andrew Neil(@afneil) May 4, 2012 | — Andrew Neil(@afneil) May 4, 2012 |
| From the Guardian's James Ball | From the Guardian's James Ball |
| I reckon Enfield and Haringey will close Boris/Ken gap to 90k-92k with one more result. It'll end up at 85k on 1st prefs. #vote2012 | I reckon Enfield and Haringey will close Boris/Ken gap to 90k-92k with one more result. It'll end up at 85k on 1st prefs. #vote2012 |
| — James Ball (@jamesrbuk) May 4, 2012 | — James Ball (@jamesrbuk) May 4, 2012 |
| 8.49pm: Boris Johnson's press team are claiming victory, according to the BBC. | 8.49pm: Boris Johnson's press team are claiming victory, according to the BBC. |
| 8.46pm: Bob Neill, the Conservative communities minister, told journalists in the press room at City Hall that a Boris Johnson victory would be good for London. | 8.46pm: Bob Neill, the Conservative communities minister, told journalists in the press room at City Hall that a Boris Johnson victory would be good for London. |
A Boris victory would be good news for London. There would be continued value for money in the way that the city's run, continuation of imaginative policies, continued investment in London's transport network, and, in particular, improvements in the jobs agenda. | A Boris victory would be good news for London. There would be continued value for money in the way that the city's run, continuation of imaginative policies, continued investment in London's transport network, and, in particular, improvements in the jobs agenda. |
| 8.30pm: Boris Johnson is expected to be named as the winner of the London mayoral elections soon and I'll be covering the result here. Earlier we were covering the mayoral and local election results on a separate live blog, but I'm afraid the software couldn't stand the excitement and the blog crashed. | 8.30pm: Boris Johnson is expected to be named as the winner of the London mayoral elections soon and I'll be covering the result here. Earlier we were covering the mayoral and local election results on a separate live blog, but I'm afraid the software couldn't stand the excitement and the blog crashed. |
| The election experts are already saying that Johnson has won. This is what YouGovs' Peter Kellner told the BBC about an hour ago. | The election experts are already saying that Johnson has won. This is what YouGovs' Peter Kellner told the BBC about an hour ago. |
[Boris Johnson] has a clear lead. It is currently running at about 4 percentage points. Boris was up 1 point from four years ago. Ken is up 3 points from four years ago. So the gap has closed by 2. The gap was 6. The gap is now 4. It may change very slightly with the remaining 5 seats. But not by much. | [Boris Johnson] has a clear lead. It is currently running at about 4 percentage points. Boris was up 1 point from four years ago. Ken is up 3 points from four years ago. So the gap has closed by 2. The gap was 6. The gap is now 4. It may change very slightly with the remaining 5 seats. But not by much. |
| [What we are seeing with second preferences] is that Ken is slightly ahead, but there's not much in it. So if Boris is coming out 3 or 4 points ahead on the first count, as I think he wil, that's too big a lead for Ken to overturn. So my prediction is that Boris will be up at around 51 and a half, 52%, Ken 48, 48 and a half per cent. A tantalisingly narrow vote. But I think it is just wide enough, with the figures we've got, to say Boris has won. | [What we are seeing with second preferences] is that Ken is slightly ahead, but there's not much in it. So if Boris is coming out 3 or 4 points ahead on the first count, as I think he wil, that's too big a lead for Ken to overturn. So my prediction is that Boris will be up at around 51 and a half, 52%, Ken 48, 48 and a half per cent. A tantalisingly narrow vote. But I think it is just wide enough, with the figures we've got, to say Boris has won. |
| And here are the latest figures, with results in from 12 of the 14 London consitutuencies. I've taken the numbers from the BBC. | And here are the latest figures, with results in from 12 of the 14 London consitutuencies. I've taken the numbers from the BBC. |
| Boris Johnson: 861,367 Ken Livingstone: 753,436 Jenny Jones: 86,568 Brian PaddickL 80,005 | Boris Johnson: 861,367 Ken Livingstone: 753,436 Jenny Jones: 86,568 Brian PaddickL 80,005 |
| You can find the detailed numbers on the London Elects website. | You can find the detailed numbers on the London Elects website. |